Over 23 Inches of Rain Triggers Record Flood Along the Sabine River, Others in the South (FORECAST)

Quincy Vagell
Published: March 11,2016
This multi-day heavy rain saga, which has dumped up to almost two feet of rain in parts of the South, is still triggering destructive flash flooding, and has driven or will drive some rivers to historic levels in the days ahead.
(MORE: Latest Flood News | Interactive Storm Reports Map)
Record flooding is already occurring along a stretch of the Sabine River, and will move downstream into next week along the Texas/Louisiana border, due to record releases from Toledo Bend Reservoir, first put in service in 1966.
The river already crushed a previous record crest near Burkeville, Texas by over 5 feet, and that crest is headed downstream for the town of Deweyville, Texas, where it may top the previous unofficial record crest from 1884 by over a foot, flooding numerous homes and leaving the town isolated.

"No residents of the town have ever seen a flood in Deweyville like what's coming in the next few days." - Jonathan Erdman, weather.com senior meteorologist

Current River Flood Warnings

Record flooding has also occurred on Bayou Dorcheat at Lake Bistineau, Louisiana, and is either nearing or expected to occur on several other locations in Louisiana and Mississippi.
Scroll down for a full rundown of the notable river flooding below.
(MORE: Over a Dozen Major Flash Floods in the Last 12 Months)
Unfortunately, pockets of locally heavy rain may continue into Saturday across parts of the South, after having already smashed March records in parts of Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi.
(MORE: Extreme March Weather Pattern)

Radar, Watches and Warnings

Fortunately, for waterlogged parts of east Texas and Louisiana, the heaviest rain has shifted east.
Over 23 inches of rain had fallen near Monroe, Louisiana, through Friday morning, prompting numerous rescues. The official airport reporting station in Monroe had picked up 18.98 inches of rain in three days since March 8. This is closing in on the record wettest month for that location set in October 2009 when 20.56 inches was recorded.
For more storm reports and historical perspective on this event, scroll down a bit.
First, let's lay out the latest rainfall forecast and some notable river flood forecasts the next several days.
Additional Rainfall Forecast

• Friday night: Moderate to locally heavy rain may persist, however, in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Lingering areas of rain or showers will also persist near the upper-level low in parts of the eastern two-thirds of Texas, but any heavy rain should be very localized, not widespread.
• Saturday: Bands of locally heavy rain may still persist near the northern Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana and Mississippi to Alabama and the Florida panhandle. Pockets of moderate to locally heavy rain may linger as well farther north in parts of Arkansas, southeast Missouri and west Tennessee. Any showers near the upper-level low in the Ark-La-Tex region should be relatively light and shouldn't worsen any existing flooding.
• City Forecasts: Houston | Shreveport | Little Rock | Memphis | Jackson | New Orleans
• MAPS: 7-Day Weekly Planner 

Rainfall Forecast Through March 12

Some Notable River Flooding
(Click on each link below for the latest flood forecast from the National Weather Service.)

• Amite River at Denham Springs, Louisiana: Top 5 crest possible this weekend, highest since 1990. Major flooding expected in subdivisions near the river.
• Amite River at Bayou Manchac Point, Louisiana: Top 4 crest possible this weekend, highest since Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. Homes flooded, roads impassable.
• Bayou D'Arbonne at Lake D'Arbonne, Louisiana: May reach a level of 90 feet this weekend, close to the record level of 90.8 feet. Nearly all homes around the lake may suffer some flooding, and all secondary roads will be impassable.
• Bayou Dorcheat at Lake Bistineau, Louisiana: Nearing a crest topping the previous record flood from April 1991 by just under 2 feet. Records there date back to at least 1974. Homes are flooded at these levels.
• Big Cypress Creek (Caddo Lake) at Mooringsport, Louisiana: A top five crest is expected early next week, highest since May 1966. At level of 178 feet, several hundred homes, including some on stilts, would flood.
• Big Sunflower River at Sunflower, Mississippi: May near record crest from 1973 this weekend. Low-lying streets flooded. 
• Boeuf River near Ft. Necessity, Louisiana: May top record crest from May 1991 next week.
• Bogue Chitto River at Tylertown, Mississippi: Top 5 crest possible soon. Homes and the Hidden Springs Resort Park flooded.
• Bogue Chitto River at Franklinton, Louisiana: Top 3 crest possible soon. Homes flooded.
• Bogue Chitto River near Bush, Louisiana: Record crest possible this weekend. Homes flooded. Access road flooded. Highway 21 may have to close.
• Bogue Falaya River at Boston Street (Covington, Louisiana): Exceeded the record crest from 1993 Friday evening. Homes and a school will flood.
• Bundick Creek at Bundick Lake, Louisiana: Forecast to near 100-foot stage this weekend. Numerous homes, camps would flood at that stage.
• Calcasieu River near Glenmora, Louisiana: Crest this weekend. Major flood damage is possible downstream along with numerous road closures.
• Little River of Louisiana near Rochelle: Crested just above the Dec. 1982 record crest, lingering for several days. Catastrophic flooding of numerous homes with communities in the floodplain isolated.
• Pearl River near Pearl River, Louisiana: Top 5 crest possible next week. Subdivisions flooded near the river. 
• Red River at Shreveport, Louisiana: Forecast to crest near flood stage next week. A couple of city parks flood, and Russell Road may flood between I-220 and Blanchard Highway in north Shreveport.
• Sabine River east of Burkeville, Texas: Has crushed its previous record flood stage of just over 48 feet set on Feb. 1, 1999, and will remain at least five feet over this record for the next several days. Records date to 1884. "Widespread major to catastrophic flooding occurs" at these levels.
• Sabine River at Deweyville, Texas: Record flooding is expected by early next week, topping the previous unofficial record from 1884, due to record releases from Toledo Bend Reservoir well upstream. At these levels, the town of Deweyville will likely be isolated, with numerous homes flooded and widespread, catastrophic flooding.
• Sabine River at Logansport, Louisiana: Forecast to near a level of 35 feet this weekend. At that level, the city's water plant is in danger of flooding. Several dozen homes would flood, as well.
• Sabine River at Orange, Texas: Forecast to rise above major flood stage early next week due to record releases from Toledo Bend Reservoir well upstream. At the 6-foot river stage, numerous roads and homes are subject to flooding. Only twice before has the river reached the 6-foot stage at Orange: 1) Hurricane Ike 2008 (9.86 feet) and 2) April 25, 1913 (6.27 feet). It is currently expected to rise above the 1913 crest, but remain below the Ike crest.
• Tallahala Creek in Laurel, Mississippi: Nearing a crest. Homes may flood on northeast side of the city, and some south side streets may also be flooded.
• Tangipahoa River at Robert, Louisiana: Top 3 crest possible this weekend. Highways, including U.S. 190, flooded. Some homes flooded, cut off.
• Tchefuncte River near Folsom, Louisiana: Topped record crest from April 1983. Highway 40 bridge threatened. Evacuations required.
• Tchefuncte River near Covington, Louisiana: Record crest possible soon. U.S. 190 bridge flooded, homes flooded.
• Tickfaw River at Liverpool, Louisiana: Top 5 crest possible soon. Flooding of roads and buildings near the river.
• Trinity River at Liberty, Texas: Forecast to rise above 29-foot stage this weekend. At that stage, "several subdivisions above Liberty begin flooding", according to the NWS.

Why This Happened

A massive, slow-moving, southward dip in the jet stream inched east across Mexico, then near the Gulf Coast, funneling deep, tropical moisture into parts of the South and Mississippi Valley, a rather unusual pattern for early March.
In fact, atmospheric moisture values (known to meteorologists as "precipitable water") topped a March record (or for any winter month) in Lake Charles, Louisiana on March 10.
(MORE: More Flooding in a Warming World)

Recap of an Historic March Event

Estimated Rainfall and Flood Reports

First, here are the highest storm-total rainfalls as of Friday morning, from both official observing stations and cooperative observers:

• Near Monroe, Louisiana: 23.22 inches
• Near Swartz, Louisiana: 22.25 inches
• Bossier City, Louisiana (Barksdale AFB): 18.02 inches
• Near Minden, Louisiana: 17.26 inches
• Near Hemphill, Texas: 16.80 inches
• Mount Hermon, Lousiana: 16.00 inches
• Near Crossett, Arkansas: 14.46 inches
• Near Clarksdale, Mississippi: 12.55 inches
• Near Longview, Texas: 12.03 inches
• Memphis Int'l Airport: 8.33 inches

Suffice to say, this was one of the heaviest March rain events on record in this area, more reminiscent of a tropical storm or its remnant.
Calendar-day rainfall records for any March day had already been set in the following locations:

• Corpus Christi, Texas: 5.15 inches on March 9
• Greenville, Mississippi: 5.64 inches on March 9
• Monroe, Louisiana: 10.86 inches on March 9; (their second wettest March day is now March 8, when 5.62 inches of rain fell at Monroe Regional Airport)
• Shreveport, Louisiana: 5.12 inches on March 8; (their second wettest March day is now March 9, when another 4.42 inches of rain fell)

Meteorologist and hurricane specialist Eric Blake noted the storm-total rainfall in Monroe, Louisiana, as of early Thursday morning topped the previous record for any two week period, there, in records dating to 1930.

Over 13 inches of rain fell Thursday night into Friday morning, prompted evacuations of 50 residents near Hammond, Louisiana, northwest of New Orleans. A building collapsed and a road washed out at the Washington Parish fairgrounds in Franklinton, Louisiana.

 

Numerous roads were flooded and closed in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, evacuations were prompted in Petal and Seminary, Mississippi, and a bridge collapsed in Laurel, Mississippi. Businesses reportedly were flooded by several feet of water in Tylertown, Mississippi.

 

(MORE: Your Vehicle Can Be Biggest Danger In Flash Flooding)

Major flooding also swamped the Shreveport, Louisiana, area where up to 18 inches of rain has fallen. Elsewhere, double-digit rainfall totals have been recorded in east Texas, southern Arkansas, and northwest Mississippi.
While not as heavy as locations to their south, this was a rain event of unusual magnitude in Memphis.

Flooding prompted evacuations in Greenwood, Haughton, Homer, Minden and Rayville, Louisiana. Evacuations have also been performed by watercraft at Lake Mexia in Texas where flooding was reportedly comparable to what occurred there last April. In Arkansas, evacuations were ordered in Dermott where at least 10 families were displaced by floodwaters.
By Wednesday night, flooding was expanding north and northeast across the Mississippi Valley, with significant flooding impacted portions of western Tennessee. At least one water rescue was made in Union City, where numerous roads were shut down due to high water.
Flooding began Monday night west of Ft. Worth, Texas, as floodwaters swamped homes and forced water rescues. In Minden, Louisiana, water was coming into the Webster Parish Courthouse and at least 40 other buildings were flooded. Water was also reported in homes in Dixie Inn, Louisiana Tuesday evening.
Flooding wasn't the only impact of this unusual pattern.
An EF1 tornado caused damage near Cool, Texas Monday evening and an EF1 tornado touched down near Tolar, Texas, southwest of Ft. Worth Tuesday morning. An EF1 tornado also left a narrow path of damage in Stephenville, Texas early Tuesday. A squall line then surged through Ft. Worth packing a 66 mph gust at the Ft. Worth Meacham Airport and a gust to 72 mph at Interstate 820 and Blue Mound Road.
Baseball size hail pounded Voca, Texas Tuesday evening, while hail to the size of golf balls covered the ground in both Evant and Jonesboro, in Texas.
You can find out more on impacts from this storm system at the link below.
(MORE: Severe Weather and Flooding Hit the South)

Continue to check back with weather.com for updated information and forecasts in the coming days.

MORE: Southern Flooding and Severe Weather