Monday, April 24, 2017

South to See Cooler Air Following Near-Record Warm Start to April

Jonathan Belles
Published: April 22,2017

Early-season heat is slowly being banished by a burst of refreshing, slightly cooler-than-average air across the South.
In some locations, this temperature dive comes as part of a roller coaster ride that will start with temperatures 10 degrees above average.

Forecast High Temperatures
On Thursday, a few record highs were tied, including Birmingham, Alabama (88 degrees) and Galveston, Texas (83 degrees). On Friday, Athens, Georgia tied a record high (88 degrees).
These record highs are nothing new this spring. Many communities across the South probably think this forecast for record heat is a broken record. You can find more perspective on this April warmth at the bottom of this article.

Late-Season Cooldown

Outside of the Pacific Northwest, most of the country has seen a lack of cooler-than-average air so far this month, but that is about to change.
On the heels of the potential for severe weather into this weekend, relatively cooler air is expected to filter southward from the central Plains into the South, as a low-pressure system shoots across the mid-South.
(MORE: Severe Weather to Sweep East This Weekend, and it Could Affect Your Weekend Plans)

Forecast Temperature and Departures
Sunday morning will feature temperatures in the 40s as far south as central Texas, with 30s in portions of the northern and central Plains.
(MORE: Summer 2017 Temperature Outlook)
On Sunday, the late-April cooldown will begin to wither, but not before bringing slightly cooler temperatures to the South and mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will top out in the 60s across portions of the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys. Heat will try to hang on from the Carolinas to Florida, but even there, temperatures will begin to fall by late Sunday.
The last gasp of chilly weather will come Monday morning, when much of the Gulf Coast and East will see morning lows in the 40s and 50s. Warmer air will retreat to central and southern Florida, but the warmth will rebound across the Plains Monday afternoon.
No record lows are expected this weekend.

Southwest Warms Up

This mid-spring temperature drop will leave the Southwest in the dust. As the low-pressure system digs into the South, a ridge will build across the Southwest.
Temperatures may approach the century mark in southern Arizona and the southeastern California deserts for the first time this year.
Bishop, California, in the eastern part of the state, may even reach a record high. The current record for Saturday is 80 degrees, and they are currently forecast to be a few degrees above that.

Early April Warmth

The month isn't yet finished, but it has been one of the warmest months of April on record.
Locations from northern Mississippi and northern Alabama into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast have seen one of the three warmest – if not the warmest – April-to-date on record.
(MORE: U.S. Warm Records Crushing Cold Records by Over 5-to-1 Ratio in 2017)
Ten locations in four states – Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia and North Carolina – plus the District of Columbia have seen the warmest April-to-date so far, through April 18. Washington D.C. and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, are two of those sites currently reporting the warmest April on record, both dating back more than 120 years.
Only stations that have a history of at least 30 years were considered, and thus Athens, Alabama, was not counted due to its shorter period of record.
Month-to-date average temperature rankings through April 18. A red "1" indicates that the location is having its warmest month-to-date on record.
(Southeast Regional Climate Center)
MORE: Worst Spring Allergy Cities

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

Severe Thunderstorms and Flooding Possible in the Southeast into Sunday Evening

Brian Donegan
Published: April 23,2017

A slow-moving weather system will bring the risk of a few severe storms and flooding rainfall to the Southeast states into Sunday evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
(MORE: Tornado Central)
This same storm system brought severe weather and heavy rain to the South on Saturday.
One tornado was observed Saturday afternoon near Burton and Belmont in northeastern Mississippi, and this radar- and public-confirmed tornado continued into Franklin County, Alabama. Debris fell out of the sky in Franklin County, Alabama, and damage was reported at the Shiloh Baptist Church.
Localized flooding was reported south of Nashville, including in Nolensville, Brentwood and Franklin, Tennessee, as heavy rain moved through the area Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, flash flooding was also occurring in Wilson and Williamson counties, Tennessee, and at least one water rescue was necessary.
Just west of Knoxville, Tennessee, near Oakdale, portions of State Highway 328 were shut down Saturday evening, due to flooding and a rockslide that occurred on Highway 62.
Heavy rainfall caused minor flooding in eastern Tennessee, including Knoxville, and several people reported golf ball-size hail.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Current Radar, Watches and Warnings
Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the severe threats through Sunday evening.

Severe Weather Forecast

Sunday Evening
  • Forecast: The risk of a few severe thunderstorms will slide east into parts of the Southeast, mainly from South Carolina southward into Georgia and northern Florida.
  • Threats: Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary concerns, although a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out, particularly after dark.
  • Locally heavy rain is also likely in the Appalachians and adjacent piedmont, with a threat of flash flooding. See below for more information.
  • Cities: Charleston, South Carolina | Savannah, Georgia | Tallahassee, Florida

Sunday Evening's Thunderstorm Forecast
(MAPS: 7-Day U.S. Rain Forecasts)

Heavy Rainfall Expected

As mentioned above, flash flooding is also a concern with this round of severe storms. Flood watches have been issued for eastern parts of Tennessee and Kentucky to portions of southwest Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina where multiple rounds of locally heavy rain could create flooding into early this week.
An expansive swath of at least 3 inches of rain is expected in the southern Appalachians and adjacent piedmont through Monday.
Keep this is in mind if you're traveling. Never drive through floodwaters of unknown depth, as roughly two-thirds of flash flood fatalities occur in vehicles.
For more details on the flooding threat, see our full article on this system at this link.


Forecast Rainfall

Storm Reports So Far

On Friday night, hail as large as baseball size was reported along the Red River, or the border of north Texas and southern Oklahoma, in Gainesville, Texas. A tornado was also sighted with that severe thunderstorm near Valley View.
Hen egg-size hail was reported near Tioga, Texas, on Friday evening.
Clusters of thunderstorms producing hail and heavy rain flared up after midnight Friday morning to the west of Oklahoma City and north of Amarillo, Texas. Quarter size hail was reported in Weatherford, Oklahoma.

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(PHOTO/VIDEO GALLERIES: Severe | Storms)
MORE: Severe Weather Outbreak in the South, April 4-5, 2017

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

St. John's, Newfoundland, Receives Record-Breaking 60 Consecutive Hours of Freezing Rain, Turning It into a Winter Wonderland

Sean Breslin
Published: April 24,2017

Ice that resembles a goose hangs from a pole in Paradise, Newfoundland, Canada, on Sunday, April 23, 2017.
(Instagram/goob709)
Winter made a vicious return to Newfoundland in recent days, where freezing rain fell for a record two and a half days in one spot.
The record was broken at St. John's International Airport in southeastern Newfoundland, where local meteorologists said freezing rain was reported for 60 consecutive hours from Thursday through Sunday, according to the Weather Network. This event broke the previous record of 37 hours reported March 2-4, 1998, local meteorologist Rodney Barney tweeted.
"Newfoundland was under a cold high-pressure system located to its north during the weekend," said weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce. "A narrow band of light precipitation from an offshore low-pressure system interacted with the cold air, resulting in a lengthy period of freezing rain."
(MORE: Newfoundland Captivated by Massive Iceberg Off the Coast)
It wasn't just St. John's – the nearby town of Paradise was also hit hard by the ice storm. Still, no power outages were reported in the area Monday morning, although some schools opened late, CBC News said.
MORE: Ice Storm in the Northeast

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

Yes, April Is Actually the Snowiest Month in These Places

Jon Erdman
Published: April 24,2017


You may not think "April" and "heavy snow" go together in the same sentence, but in parts of the U.S., this spring month is typically the snowiest of the year.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)
Examining monthly snowfall data from 4,218 observations sites across the United States receiving a yearly average of at least 2 inches of snow, Dr. Brian Brettschneider of the Western Regional Climate Center found almost three dozen locations where April is typically the snowiest month.
Locations where April is the snowiest month, or tied for the snowiest month of the year, on average.
































These locations are all in the northern or central Rockies and adjacent High Plains, particularly the Black Hills of South Dakota, which is known for both very early and very late-in-season heavy, wet snowstorms.
Among those locations include:
  • Casper, Wyoming: 11.6 inches
  • Mt. Rushmore, South Dakota: 11.3 inches
While not its snowiest month, Lead, South Dakota, averages a stunning 32.9 inches of snow each April, and once was buried in 86.7 inches of snow in April 1984.
(MORE: Snowiest Place in Each State)
Average snowfall from April through June, based on 1981-2010 data.


































Brettschneider found that while the lion's share of cities have their snowiest month in the core winter months of December through February, just under 500 locations are snowiest either in the fall (October or November) or spring (March or April).
(INTERACTIVE: When the Last Snow of Spring Typically Falls Where You Live)
Histogram of the distribution of snowiest months of all U.S. reporting stations with at least 2 inches of snow. For example, March is the snowiest month for 377 reporting stations. In the case of a tie for the snowiest month, each tied month is counted for each station.

Recent April (and Later) Snowstorms
































In mid-April 2016, Winter Storm Vexo dumped over 4 feet of snow in the foothills west of Denver, and a foot in the city itself.
At left: Doppler radar just before 7 a.m. CT Apr. 10, 2013 showing areas of freezing rain from northwest Texas to South Dakota. At right: Ice storm photo from Apr. 9 in Sioux Falls, S.D.
Three years before that, Winter Storm Walda was one of the most bizarre April snowstorms of recent history, not only burying the Black Hills of South Dakota in several feet of snow, but producing freezing rain as far south as northwest Texas, and a crippling ice storm in parts of South Dakota and Iowa.
An April 1-5, 1987, slow-moving low-pressure system led to heavy snowfall accumulation in the Appalachians. High winds produced snow drifts of more than 10 feet, and with the weight of the heavy snow, lead to downed trees, powerlines, and some roof collapses.
(MORE: Ranking the Most Extreme U.S. Winter Storms)
As it turns out, three of the top five Category 5 winter storms in the Northern Rockies and Plains, as classified by NOAA's Regional Snowfall Index, occurred in April.
The most recent case was four-day, late April 1984 blizzard, dumping 3 to 6 feet of snow in the Black Hills of South Dakota, mountains of northern Wyoming and southern Montana.
We've also had two notable recent May snowstorms.
Winter Storm Venus pounded the Rockies and High Plains as Tropical Storm Ana was making landfall in South Carolina on Mother's Day weekend 2015.
The previous Mother's Day, Winter Storm Zephyr was the latest/heaviest snowstorm of record in Cheyenne, Wyoming, and dumped a few slushy inches of snow in Denver.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter.

MORE: 50 States' Biggest Snow Days (PHOTOS)


The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

Supercells: What to Know About These Dangerous Thunderstorms

Chris Dolce
Published: April 24,2017

The term supercell is used by meteorologists to describe a breed of long-lasting thunderstorms which rotate and are accompanied by dangerous weather conditions, including large hail, damaging winds and sometimes tornadoes.
Classic supercells appear as individual storms like the one in the radar image below, but sometimes can be embedded within a line or cluster of thunderstorms. When viewed in an open area, classic supercells have the "mothership" appearance often photographed in the Plains states.
(MORE: Tornado Central)
Radar image of a supercell in southwest Oklahoma on Nov. 7, 2011. The hook echo and hail core are labeled. (National Weather Service - Norman)
Supercells have a distinct appearance on Doppler radar which often features a so-called hook echo on the lower left portion of the storm. That hook echo appendage extends southward from the thunderstorm's main core where large hail and heavy rain are typically located. When tornadoes are spawned by supercells, they are near the hook echo on radar.
A classic supercell photographed near Sanford, Kansas, on May 7, 2013. (Credit: Roger Hill)
(INTERACTIVE: Experience the Formation of a Tornado)
The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) says fewer than 20 percent of all supercell thunderstorms produce tornadoes. However, supercells are responsible for spawning the vast majority of all tornadoes – violent ones in particular – NSSL added. More research is underway to discover why some of these rotating thunderstorms are accompanied by tornadoes while others are not.
Supercell thunderstorms are sometimes referred to as low precipitation (LP) or high precipitation (HP).
As the name implies, an LP supercell is accompanied by lighter amounts of precipitation – rain or hail. This type of supercell is easy to spot in the Plains because there is a clear view of the structure.
HP supercells contain heavier concentrations of rain and hail. The precipitation can sometimes obscure the storm's structure, including wall clouds and tornadoes. Tornadoes obscured by heavy precipitation are typically known as "rain-wrapped."
(MORE: Different Types of Tornadoes)
When supercells develop in a volatile atmospheric environment, they can survive for dozens or even hundreds of miles over multiple hours. The best-organized supercells may spawn multiple tornadoes, some of which can stay on the ground for a lengthy period of time.
Radar snapshots every 30 minutes of a classic long-lived supercell from central Alabama to north Georgia during the April 27, 2011 superoutbreak. (Credit: Brian Tang, National Center for Atmospheric Research)
A recent example is a supercell in southwest Georgia on Jan. 22, which spawned a tornado in progress for 72 minutes along a 70-mile-long path.
Low-pressure systems in various regions of the world can spawn supercell thunderstorms when atmospheric conditions are ripe. They can also occur in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes.
(MORE: Where Tornadoes Strike Around the World)

The Science Behind How Supercells Form

A supercell thunderstorm is characterized by a sustained and powerful rotating updraft (rising air). These storms originate in unstable air accompanied by a particular type of changing wind direction at various altitudes in the atmosphere known as wind shear. A common combination supportive of supercells often found in the Plains states is a southerly or southeasterly wind near ground level and a southwesterly or westerly wind higher in the atmosphere.
This combination of changing wind directions and speeds creates a horizontal rolling motion in the lower atmosphere. The same rapidly rising air motions that form the thunderstorm turn this horizontal rotation into a vertical rotation which can then be spectacularly evident in the circular striations, or layers, visible in the cloud structure of the supercell.
MORE: Tornado Risk By Month

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

Water Rescues Reported, Thousands Without Power as Rain Causes Flooding from South Carolina to Virginia; Charleston Hit Hard

Eric Chaney
Published: April 24,2017

Heavy rains forced water rescues, knocked out power to thousands and triggered significant flooding of multiple streets from South Carolina to southern Virginia.
Despite a recent drought in the region, flash flooding will remain a concern in as a low-pressure system slowly tracks up the East Coast.
The heavy rains forced several caskets aboveground at a cemetery in Georgetown County, South Carolina, WCSC-TV reported. The Georgetown County government has moved to Operating Condition 4 Monday, indicating that they are on alert for a possible threat as heavy rain continues to hammer the area, and a local middle school has been opened as a shelter.
In Hawkins County, Tennessee, multiple people were rescued Monday after a van got stuck floodwaters and was nearly carried away by the Holston River, according to the Associated Press. Hawkins County Emergency Management Director Gary Murrell told the AP there were no injuries and all were rescued successfully.
First responders worked to free several people trapped inside of a vehicle in high water in downtown Charleston, South Carolina, Monday morning, WCBD-TV said.
Charleston police closed numerous roads downtown due to high water.
Rescuers found the driver of this truck on top of the vehicle when they arrived Monday morning in Wilkes County, North Carolina. Heavy rain is causing flooding in the Carolinas and Virginia.
(WXII/Bethany Moore)






































Another water rescue took place in northwestern North Carolina where a man had to be retrieved from the top of his pickup truck, which was sitting with water rushing over the bed and hood and up to the side windows, WXII-TV reported.
In neighboring Yadkin County, fire department officials found a car almost completely submerged in water in an area near the Yadkin River, WXII reports. Emergency responders confirmed no one was inside the car and that it had likely been there since earlier in the night.
(MORE: Flood Threat Continues in the Carolinas, Virginia as East Coast System Moves North)

Officials in Andrews, South Carolina, told the National Weather Service that buildings are already starting to flood, and Columbia city officials told the State that heavy rainfall caused sewer overflows in the city.
The NWS has also received numerous reports of mudslides, water entering homes, and water completely covering local roads in Virginia.
The heavy rains have also brought scattered power outages to the region. According to the AP, Duke Energy reported more than 2,500 customers without electricity in South Carolina, Monday morning, and more than 59,000 in North Carolina.
MORE: Tornado Risk Month by Month

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

Major Warm-Up Expected in Northeast Late Week into This Weekend; First 90-Degree Day Possible in Washington D.C.

Brian Donegan
Published: April 24,2017

The Northeast will enjoy a taste of summer late this week into the weekend and some cities, including Washington D.C. and Philadelphia, could record their first 90-degree day of the year.
The jet stream will bulge northward into eastern Canada to allow a warm, southerly wind flow to develop across the East, which will send temperatures to the warmest readings of the year so far in parts of the region.
(MORE: 10-Day Forecast Highs/Lows)

Thursday

The warmth will begin to build in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic Wednesday, but by Thursday it will feel summery as highs reach the 80s from western and central New York into Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina.
These temperatures are 15 to 30 degrees above average for the final week of April.

Forecast Highs Compared to Average Thursday
A handful of record highs may be challenged Thursday afternoon, including Buffalo (84 degrees) and Rochester, New York (86 degrees).

Friday Through Sunday

Friday through the weekend will remain summerlike across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, with the warmth likely reaching its peak Saturday afternoon.
(FORECAST: Baltimore | Buffalo | Boston)
Friday
  • Highs in the 70s are expected in much of the Northeast and Ohio Valley, with 80-plus-degree temperatures dominating the mid-Atlantic.
  • These numbers are generally 10 to 20 degrees above average for the date.
Saturday
  • Widespread highs in the 80s are likely from New York City southward into the mid-Atlantic, with temperatures holding in the 70s across much of New England.
  • Washington D.C. may record its first 90-degree day of the year Saturday, which would be nearly three weeks earlier than the average date of this milestone – May 17. The earliest 90-degree reading for the nation's capital is March 22.
  • Philadelphia could also reach 90 degrees for the first time this year on Saturday. This would be almost four weeks earlier than the average date of the first 90-degree day, May 24, but it has occurred as early as April 7.
(MORE: Here's When You Can Expect Your First 90-Degree Temperatures)


Forecast Highs
Record highs will be threatened Saturday afternoon, including in Washington D.C. (91 degrees); Raleigh, North Carolina (91 degrees); Philadelphia (90 degrees); Allentown, Pennsylvania (86 degrees); Lynchburg, Virginia (88 degrees); Roanoke, Virginia (89 degrees); Charleston, West Virginia (90 degrees); Huntington, West Virginia (87 degrees) and Beckley, West Virginia (85 degrees).
Sunday
  • Much of New England and upstate New York will return closer to average, with highs mainly in the 60s.
  • The Interstate 95 corridor from Philadelphia to Washington D.C. could again reach 90 degrees Sunday afternoon.
  • Additional record highs may be challenged in portions of the mid-Atlantic.
(MORE: Summer 2017 Temperature Outlook)
Low temperatures Thursday through this weekend will also be well above average. Most of New England and New York state will have lows in the 50s, while the mid-Atlantic won't even drop out of the 60s.
Some of the urban heat islands, such as Baltimore and Washington D.C., may not drop below 70 degrees Saturday, Sunday or Monday mornings.

How Warm Has April Been in the Mid-Atlantic?

Most of the mid-Atlantic has seen a top-5 warmest April so far, and the warmth later this week will only reinforce this fact.
As of Sunday, it was the warmest April on record in Washington D.C. with an average temperature of 62.4 degrees, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC).
Richmond, Virginia, was tied for its warmest April on record through Sunday, with an average temperature of 62.5 degrees.
Baltimore and Philadelphia had each recorded their third-warmest April on record as of Sunday, the SERCC data shows.
MORE: Summer in Every State

April Could End With a Snowstorm in the Rockies and High Plains, Including Denver

Jon Erdman
Published: April 24,2017

April is almost over, but parts of the Rockies and northern Great Lakes will deal with snow much of the week, potentially ending with a snowstorm into the weekend in parts of the High Plains and Front Range.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)
The culprit for the increasingly cold, snowier pattern this week is a succession of sharpening southward plunges of the polar jet stream, known as troughs, expected to swing through the Rockies.
The strongest of these jet stream nosedives will carve itself out over the Great Basin and Rockies by Friday, then get kicked into the Plains this weekend.

Potential Snowstorm Setup
While it remains too far out in time for key details on the weekend system, let's lay out what we know now about both the parade of snow earlier this week, then the possible snowstorm.

Early to Mid-Week

Periods of snow will spread from the Cascades of Washington and Oregon to the northern and central Rockies through Thursday.
Snowfall accumulations through Thursday are likely to top a foot in the Tetons and Bighorn Mountains of Wyoming, as well as higher elevations of the Washington Cascades.
At least 6 inches of snow are likely through Thursday in the rest of the Rockies' higher elevations.
After Monday night's snow moves into Canada, another round of wet snow is expected Tuesday night through possibly Thursday in northern Minnesota, far northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
Generally, less than 6 inches of snow are expected in these locations.
(INTERACTIVE: When the Last Snow of Spring Typically Falls Where You Live)

Snowfall Forecast: Next 72 Hours

Potential Late-Week Snowstorm

By late Friday, rain may change to snow in the High Plains of Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and parts of the Front Range and eastern Plains of Colorado.

Friday Night's Outlook
Saturday, snow may continue in the High Plains, and rain may eventually mix with, or change to, wet snow Saturday night, possibly lingering into Sunday in parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest.

Saturday's Outlook
While it is too soon to forecast snowfall totals from this potential snowstorm, parts of the Interstate 25 corridor from Wyoming to New Mexico – including Cheyenne, Wyoming, the Denver metro area, Colorado Springs and Pueblo – could see significant accumulations from this Friday and Saturday system.
Travel along parts of I-25, particularly between Denver and Colorado Springs, and south of Walsenburg, Colorado, to Raton Pass, may become difficult by late Friday night or Saturday morning.
(MORE: Where April is Typically the Snowiest Month)
The Midwestern part of this system is a particularly challenging forecast.
With low pressure scooting north toward the Great Lakes, the air may become just cold enough for a swath of wet snow in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley Sunday into next Monday – yes, that would be May 1.
(FORECAST: 7-Day U.S. Rain/Snow Maps)
Be sure to check back frequently for the latest updates on this potential spring snowstorm.
MORE: 50 States' Biggest Snow Days

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

Multiple Rounds of Severe Thunderstorms, Including Possible Tornadoes, Expected in April's Final Week

Chris Dolce
Published: April 24,2017

An active jet stream will be one ingredient helping to fuel multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms that could include tornadoes in April's final week.
The first disturbance rippling through that jet stream will bring severe storms from the central Plains into the lower and middle Mississippi valleys midweek. Right behind that, another potentially more robust weather system could fire off more severe weather in the southern Plains Friday, which may then shift farther east into this weekend.
(MORE: Tornado Central)
Setup mid-to-late week includes an active jet stream with moisture returning north ahead of two jet stream disturbances.
 Since this forecast is still several days in the future, uncertainty remains in the details. Check back throughout the week for updates.
For now, here's a general look at the forecast.
(MORE: Get Your 7-Day Severe Weather Outlook)

Round 1: Tuesday Night-Wednesday

Tuesday Night

  • A few severe storms may develop ahead of a cold front by Tuesday night from parts of eastern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas to southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas.
  • Large hail and strong wind gusts are the main threats.
  • CITIES: Joplin, Missouri | Tulsa, Oklahoma

Wednesday

  • The cold front will push east with scattered severe storms possible from Missouri and west-central Illinois southward through Arkansas into northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana. Severe storms may continue as far east as the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday evening.
  • Damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible.
  • CITIES: St. Louis | Little Rock, Arkansas | Shreveport, Louisiana

Wednesday's Thunderstorm Forecast
(MORE: April is a Dangerous Month For Tornadoes)

Round 2: Friday Through This Weekend

  • The next energetic jet stream disturbance will begin to emerge in the Plains from the Rockies as the week comes to a close.
  • Severe storms, including tornadoes, may impact the southern Plains and Ozarks on Friday (see first map below). A corridor from Oklahoma and north Texas eastward into Arkansas and southwest Missouri is at greatest risk.
  • Depending on how this weather system evolves, more rounds of severe weather will be possible in parts of the Plains, South and Midwest Saturday (see second map below) into Sunday.
  • Widespread rain and thunderstorms could contribute to flooding in some locations, as well.
  • This could be a dangerous severe weather and flooding setup, but forecast changes are likely in the days ahead. Check back for updates and more details as the situation becomes clearer.

Friday-Friday Night's Thunderstorm Forecast

Saturday's Thunderstorm Forecast
MORE: Tornado Risk By Month

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

Flood Threat Continues in the Carolinas, Virginia as East Coast System Moves North

Linda Lam
Published: April 24,2017

Flash flooding will remain a concern in the Carolinas and Virginia, despite a recent drought, as a low-pressure system slowly tracks up the East Coast.
Heavy rain, combined with high tide, triggered significant flooding of multiple streets in downtown Charleston, South Carolina, early Monday morning. Some water rescues were performed as occupants of a vehicle became trapped. For more details on flooding impacts, see the link below.
(LATEST NEWS: Flooding Hits the Carolinas, Virginia)

Latest Flood Reports and Heaviest Rainfall
The North Fork of the Holston River near Gate City, Virginia, crested Monday at 18.54 feet, making it the fourth-highest crest ever recorded, according to the National Weather Service in Morristown, Tennessee.
Pockets of heavy rain are also impacting other locations in the Carolinas and Virginia, and will spread through the mid-Atlantic into Tuesday. More than 5 inches of rain had fallen in parts of North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee as of late Monday afternoon. More than 6 inches of rain have been reported near Winston-Salem and Sparta in North Carolina.

Current Radar, Watches and Warnings
Flood watches continue from South Carolina to North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Flood warnings continue in parts of east Tennessee and eastern Kentucky even though the heaviest rain has ended, there.

Flood Alerts
The area of low pressure contributing to the heavy rain will slowly track just off the East Coast through Wednesday, spreading rain and some wind from the Southeast to New England. This slow-moving system may also bring some coastal concerns.
(MORE: 7 Interesting Things We've Seen With the Weather So Far in April)
Some areas in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast also continue to see drought conditions, and the expected wet weather may help to improve the drought status there.

Wet Forecast Details

Tuesday
As the low-pressure system continues to track northward near the East Coast, rain will extend from North Carolina into much of New England.
Locally heavy rain is possible in parts of the mid-Atlantic states.
Gusty winds are also expected along the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. Depending on the exact track and strength of this system, coastal flooding and erosion may become concerns due to persistent onshore flow.
Much of the mid-Atlantic will begin to see drier conditions Tuesday night.
(FORECAST: Philadelphia | New York | Boston)

Tuesday's Forecast
Rain will likely linger in New England and Long Island into Wednesday, and gusty winds may persist in eastern New England.

Rainfall Forecast

A prolonged rain event is expected in the mid-Atlantic, which will result in moderate to heavy rainfall totals.
A swath of 3 to 5 inches of additional rainfall is possible in parts of central North Carolina. A few spots in this area could see up to 8 inches of total rainfall.

Rainfall Forecast
This is where additional flash flooding is most likely through early Tuesday.
Farther north, most areas along the coast from Delaware to Maine will see 1 to 3 inches of rainfall through Wednesday.

Additional Flooding Reports

Sunday and Sunday night, parts of the southern Appalachians were hardest hit.
Multiple roads were washed out in Scott County, Tennessee, prompting voluntary evacuations, reported WBIR-TV. Flooding was reported on the grounds of Bristol Motor Speedway.
Roads were flooded and closed in Surry and Wilkes Counties, North Carolina, requiring at least one water rescue, according to WXII 12 News. Numerous mudslides were reported to 911 in Buchanan County, Virginia. Several homes reportedly had water in basements in Dickenson County, Virginia.

Heavy Rain Recap (South Florida)

A weak area of low pressure moved across South Florida this weekend, moving from the Straits of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico to off the east coast of the Sunshine State by late Sunday. The good news is that this tropical moisture brought some desperately-needed rainfall to the parched state.
However, localized areas picked up 6-plus inches of rain in a short amount of time, leading to flooding in some spots. A portion of a roadway was washed out in Davie, Florida, on Sunday due to the heavy rains.
(RECAP: Heavy Rainfall Triggers Damaging Flooding, Causes Outages in Florida)
MORE: Severe Weather in the Midwest, Great Lakes April 10, 2017 (PHOTOS)

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This Date in Weather History for April 24,2017 from weatherforyou.com

Weather History
For Monday,April 24,2017
 
 
 
 
1899 - Two women and one son lived to tell the story of being picked up by a tornado and carried more than a fourth of a mile, flying far above the church steeples, before being gently set down again. The young boy and one of the ladies said they had the pleasure of flying alongside a horse. The horse "kicked and struggled" as it flew high above, and was set down unharmed about a mile away. (The Weather Channel)
1908 - Severe thunderstorms spawned eighteen tornadoes over across the Central Gulf Coast States claiming the lives of 310 persons. The state of Mississippi was hardest hit. A tornado near Hattiesburg MS killed 143 persons and caused more than half a million dollars damage. Four violent tornadoes accounted for 279 of the 310 deaths. The deadliest of the four tornadoes swelled to a width of 2.5 miles as it passed near Amite LA. The tornado also leveled most of Purvis MS. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Up to seven inches of rain drenched Virginia in three days. Morgantown WV received 4.27 inches in 24 hours, and flooding was reported in south central West Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - Low pressure produced high winds and severe thunderstorms in the Southern Plains Region. Strong thunderstorm winds destroyed two mobile homes at Whitt TX injuring two persons. Winds associated with the low pressure system gusted to 70 mph at Guadalupe Pass TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - Twenty cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Russell KS was the hot spot in the nation with a reading of 101 degrees. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from Colorado to Wisconsin. Hail four and a half inches in diameter was reported at Sargeant NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern High Plains to north central Kansas. Thunderstorms spawned ten tornadoes, including one which injured four persons and caused 1.5 million dollars damage at Shattuck OK. Thunderstorms also produced softball size hail at Wheeler TX, wind gusts to 85 mph southwest of Arnett OK, and 13.45 inches of rain near Caldwell TX, which resulted in the worst flooding in recent memory for that area. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
2010 - An EF-4 tornado up to 1.75 miles wide travels 149.25 miles through Mississippi, the widest and fourth longest path in Mississippi history. It left behind major destruction to businesses, churches and homes, four fatalities in Yazoo City and ten fatalities across the state,

This Date in Weather History for April 23,2017 from weatherforyou.com

Weather History
For Sunday,April 23,2017
 
 
 
 
1885 - The city of Denver, CO, was in the midst of a storm which produced 23 inches of snow in 24 hours, and at Idaho Springs CO produced 32 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)
1910 - The temperature at the Civic Center in Los Angeles, CA, hit 100 degrees to establish an April record for the city. (The Weather Channel)
1983 - A mini-blizzard produced sixteen inches of snow at Laramie, WY, including a foot of snow in just eight hours during the night. (The Weather Channel)
1987 - Thunderstorms in the Atlantic Coast Region produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 67 mph at Anderson SC. The high winds destroyed two planes at the airport, and the large hail damaged fifty other planes, and severely damaged twenty-three greenhouses. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - An intense winter-like storm brought thunderstorms to southern California, and produced snow in some of the higher elevations. Nine girls at Tustin CA were injured when lightning struck the tree under which their softball team had taken shelter from the rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - Salina, KS, was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 105 degrees. The high of 105 degrees established an April record for the state of Kansas. A total of eighteen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)
1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in West Texas and western Oklahoma. Thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Lake McKenzie TX and at Garden City TX, and produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Gage OK. Thunderstorms drenched southeast Minnesota with heavy rain, with 6.6 inches reported northwest of Browndale. High temperatures were mostly in the 80s across the central U.S. The morning low of 67 degrees at Fargo ND and afternoon high of 91 degrees were both records for the date. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

This Date in Weather History for April 22,2017 from weatherforyou.com

Weather History
For Saturday,April 22,2017
 
 
 
 
1883 - An outbreak of tornadoes from Louisiana to Kansas claimed the lives to 200 persons. One of the tornadoes destroyed the town of Beauregard MS. (David Ludlum)
1980 - A record April heat wave sent the mercury up to the 100 degree mark in Iowa. (The Weather Channel)
1987 - Fifteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 96 degrees at Pensacola FL established a record for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)
1988 - Heavy snow fell over northern Nebraska, with 15 inches reported at Mullen. Heavy snow also blanketed the mountains of northern Arizona, with 16 inches reported at Munds Park. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - Twenty-seven cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 96 degrees at Omaha was an April record, and the high of 100 degrees at Lubbock TX equalled their record for April. Hill City KS and Liberal KS tied for honors as the hot spot in the nation with afternoon highs of 103 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern and Central High Plains to northwest Florida during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 67 mph at Gillette WY, hail two inches in diameter west of Roswell NM, and deluged Cheyenne OK with 8.68 inches of rain leaving some parts of the town under five feet of water. Temperatures reached the low 90s in the north central U.S. Chamberlain SD and Pickstown SD tied Presidio TX for honors as the hot spot in the nation with afternoon highs of 94 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
2011 - Lambert International Airport in St. Louis experiences extensive damage as it is hit by a group of tornados, blowing out windows in the main terminal and tearing the roof off Concourse C. Five people were taken to the hospital with minor injuries from shattered glass and flying debris.

Friday, April 21, 2017

UK: Cool, wet weather to develop early next week

By Faith Eherts, AccuWeather meteorologist
April 21,2017, 12:32:15PM,EDT
 
 
While a weekend of seasonable temperatures with plenty of dry weather is in store, a fresh bout of chilly precipitation is on the horizon for the United Kingdom early next week.
Although the week ended with showery weather across the region, pleasant conditions will remain through Sunday.
“High pressure building into the United Kingdom this weekend will foster dry weather,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister.
Those hoping to get a good glimpse of the Lyrid meteor shower this weekend will want to head as far south as possible, where a clear nighttime sky is most likely.
The weather will be appreciated by runners of the 2017 London Marathon and Great Edinburgh Run, both of which are set to take place on Sunday.
However, the weather pattern is poised to take a wintry turn early next week.
earlyweekUK 0421

“A cold front will move across the United Kingdom on Monday bringing chilly and breezy conditions to the area,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards.
Temperature contrasts will be most noticeable in northern portions of the U.K., where high temperatures will be up to 4-5 degrees Celsius (about 8 degrees Fahrenheit) lower on Monday than on Sunday.
“There will also be some showers and some of these can be wintry across Scotland during the early part of the week,” said Richards.
While the higher elevations of Scotland and Northern Ireland will experience wet weather through the weekend, it is expected to spread to the coasts by Monday as the cold front drops through the area.
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Interactive United Kingdom Weather Radar

The temperature drop will be noticeable across Ireland as well, where Sunday’s 15-16 C (about 60 F) high temperatures will be replaced with highs closer to the 10 C (50 F) mark on Monday as waves of rain move across the country.

Showers are expected to reach London by midday on Monday, though the recently warm weather won’t retreat until Tuesday.
The weather pattern will remain active over the U.K. through the upcoming week, keeping wet weather and below-average temperatures in the forecast.

July-like heat to overtake much of eastern US toward end of April

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
April 22,2017, 2:04:04AM,EDT
 
 Temperatures are poised to surge well into the 80s and 90s F over a large part of the eastern United States later next week through the last weekend of April.
It is possible that some areas will experience their first heat wave of the year. In the northern states, this is generally defined as three or more days in a row with a high of 90 degrees or greater.
The burst of summerlike weather will have warm season activities kicking into high gear.
Static East Warmup Next Week

In northern areas, fans and air conditioners that have not been needed so far this year may be put to use. It will get so warm that some people will be thinking about taking a dip in the pool, lake or ocean.
The jet stream is forecast to bulge northward, into part of eastern Canada, next week.
The jet stream, which guides weather systems along, is a fast river of air near where jets cruise at. South of the jet stream, the weather is often quite warm.
How far to the north and east the crest of the jet stream bulge occurs will determine how far north and east the core of the warm air sets up.
"The biggest temperature anomalies are likely to extend from the central and eastern Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians," according to AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Evan Duffey.
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Temperatures in some areas will run 15 to 25 degrees above average and will be more typical of the middle of July.
An exception to the heat may occur in coastal New England and perhaps farther south along the immediate mid-Atlantic coast. This would be due to a breeze off the ocean.
"Even if a strong sea breeze develops in part of the Interstate-95 corridor, temperatures will still be well above average in most of this area," Duffey said. "Ocean water temperatures are above average in the coastal Northeast."
Local breezes off the Great Lakes will also keep some shoreline areas relatively cool.
If the crest of the jet stream bulge sets up a couple of hundred miles farther east, then hot weather would approach the Atlantic coast. If the jet stream bulge sets up a couple of hundred miles farther west, then cooling effects from the ocean will penetrate well inland, perhaps to the Appalachians.
While more seasonable air is likely to progress eastward across the Midwest and South Central states during early May, warmth may linger from the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast well into the first week of May.
Backyard gardeners may be able to plant some warm season flowers and vegetables a little early this spring in the Northeast and Midwest as a result, provided they have a means to cover their crops during any chilly nights during the middle and latter part of May.
People considering a swim in northern areas should use caution. Lake, ocean and unheated pool water temperatures are still dangerously chilly this early in the season.
As heat builds in the East, chilly air will plunge into the Western states. In between, over the middle of the nation, severe weather is likely.
Static Severe Weather Setup late next week

Multiple rounds of damaging, life-threatening storms may erupt later next week and into next weekend.
Brian Moore ·
I read this and then checked the long range forecast and you show temps or even slightly below normal for this period. I guess you got it covered either way !
Like · Reply · 5 · 10 hrs
Heather E. L. Gerquest ·
There is still ice in our rivers and ponds. Of course it's going to be cold swimming! I will wait to see what the weather is before I go sorting through my summer clothes and lugging the A/C out of storage. I have my faith in the coastal breeze as well.
Like · Reply · 1 · 8 hrs
Thai Winson ·
Not looking forward to it
George Greene ·
Works at TopShelf Oldies
Sounds great!! Looking forward to it!
Like · Reply · 1 · 5 hrs