Friday, August 22, 2014

New York City metro-area forecast for August 22-October 5,2014 from accuweather.com

Here's the 45-day weather forecast for the New York City metro-area for the period of the last 10 days of August,all of September,and the first 5 days of October (August 22-October 5),2014 from accuweather.com








Tonight,August 22-23: Becoming mostly cloudy and seasonably warm for very late August and late summer with a low temperature dropping to the middle 60's,overnight.As of 3:30AM,EDT,August 23,it's 66 degrees and cloudy,with 86% humidity in White Plains,NY,and it's 68 degrees and mostly cloudy,with 70% humidity,in New York City.

Tomorrow,August 23: Remaining a bit cool for very late August and late summer with clouds breaking for some sun and a high temperature in the middle and upper 70's.

Tomorrow night,August 23-24: Becoming partly cloudy and cooler than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to the upper 50's to lower 60's,overnight.

Sunday,August 24: Turning warmer than recent days with sunny to partly cloudy skies and a high temperature in the upper 70's to lower 80's.Remaining mainly clear and comfortable with a low temperature dropping to the upper 50's to lower 60's,once again,overnight.

Monday,August 25: Becoming mostly sunny and very warm with a high temperature of 80-85 degrees.Becoming partly cloudy,but remaining seasonably warm for very late August with a low temperature dropping,for the third straight night,down to the upper 50's to lower 60's,overnight.

Tuesday,August 26: Remaining mostly sunny and very warm for very late August and late summer with a high temperature in the middle 80's.Remaining clear and seasonable with a low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 60's,overnight.

Wednesday,August 27: Remaining mostly sunny and unseasonably very warm to hot for the end of August with a high temperature of 85-90 degrees.Remaining mainly clear and warm with a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 60's,overnight.

Thursday,August 28: Remaining very warm and humid with times of clouds and sun and a high temperature of 85-90 degrees,once again.Remaining mostly cloudy,warm,and muggy,with a scattered shower or thunderstorm possible and a low temperature dropping to 65-70 degrees,overnight.

Friday,August 29: Turning mostly cloudy,rainy,and cooler than recent days with a bit of rain possible and a high temperature of 80-85 degrees.Becoming partly cloudy and cooler than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to the upper 50's to lower 60's,overnight.

Saturday,August 30: Turning seasonably warm for the end of August with intervals of clouds and sunshine and a high temperature of around 80 degrees.Turning cloudy,rainy,raw,and cool with periods of rain and a low temperature dropping to 55-60 degrees,overnight.

Sunday,August 31: August of 2014 ends remaining seasonably warm with considerable cloudiness and a chance for a scattered rain shower and a high temperature of around 80 degrees,once again.Becoming clear,but remaining seasonably mild to warm for very late summer with a low temperature dropping to around 60 degrees,overnight.

Monday,September 1: Labor Day 2014 will be and September of 2014 begins remaining seasonably warm for the unofficial end of summer with abundant sunshine and a high temperature in the upper 70's to lower 80's.Becoming clear to partly cloudy and milder/warmer than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 60's,overnight.

Tuesday,September 2: Turning warmer than recent days as it turns very warm for the beginning of September and the end of summer with a mix of sunshine and some clouds and a high temperature in the middle 80's.Becoming clear and warm with a low temperature dropping to 65-70 degrees, overnight.

Wednesday,September 3: Becoming sunny and unseasonably hot for the beginning of September with a near record high temperature of 85-90 degrees.Remaining clear and unseasonably warm with a low temperature dropping to around 70 degrees,overnight.

Thursday,September 4: Remaining sunny and unseasonably hot for the unofficial end of summer with a near record high temperature of around 90 degrees.Remaining clear,very warm,and muggy with a low temperature dropping to 65-70 degrees,overnight.

Friday,September 5: Remaining sunny and very warm,but not as hot as recent days with a high temperature of 80-85 degrees.Becoming partly cloudy,but remaining warm with a low temperature dropping to the middle 60's,overnight.

Saturday,September 6: Becoming mostly cloudy,but remaining very warm for early September and the end of summer with a high temperature in the middle and upper 80's.Remaining mostly cloudy and warm with a low temperature dropping to 60-65 degrees,overnight.

Sunday,September 7: Turning sunny and much cooler than recent days with a high temperature of 75-80 degrees.Turning partly cloudy,rainy,and cooler than recent nights with a chance for a couple of late-night rain showers and a low temperature dropping to the upper 50's to lower 60's,overnight.

Monday,September 8: Remaining seasonably warm with partial sunshine and a high temperature in the upper 70's to lower 80's.Remaining partly cloudy and warm with a low temperature dropping to 60-65 degrees,overnight.

Tuesday,September 9: Remaining mostly cloudy,rainy,and warm with a bit of rain and a high temperature in the upper 70's to lower 80's.Remaining cloudy,rainy,stormy,and warm with plenty of clouds and a chance for a couple of showers and a thunderstorm and a low temperature dropping to 60-65 degrees,once again,overnight.

Wednesday,September 10: Turning unseasonably cool for early September despite ample sunshine with a high temperature only in the upper 60's to lower 70's.Becoming clear and colder than recent nights as it turns unseasonably chilly for early September and the end of summer with a low temperature dropping to 50-55 degrees,overnight.

Thursday,September 11: The 13-year anniversary of the 9/11-terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon and the 2-year anniversary of the terrorist attacks on Benghazi will be remaining seasonably warm with abundant sunshine and a high temperature in the lower and middle 70's.Remaining clear and cool with a low temperature dropping to 50-55 degrees,once again, overnight.

Friday,September 12: Turning warmer than recent days with abundant sunshine and a high temperature of 75-80 degrees.Remaining clear and cool for early September with a low temperature dropping to the middle 50's,overnight.

Saturday,September 13: Becoming mostly cloudy,but remaining seasonably warm and dry with a high temperature of 75-80 degrees,once again.Becoming partly cloudy and warmer than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to the upper 50's to lower 60's,overnight.

Sunday,September 14: Becoming sunny,but remaining quite warm for mid-September and the end of summer with a high temperature of around 80 degrees.Becoming partly cloudy,rainy,and stormy,but remaining warm with a chance for a couple of showers and a thunderstorm and a low temperature dropping to the upper 50's to lower 60's,once again,overnight.

Monday,September 15: Turning mostly cloudy,rainy,stormy,and cooler than recent days with a chance for a couple of scattered thunderstorms possible and a high temperature in the lower and middle 70's.Remaining cloudy,rainy,stormy,warm,and muggy for mid-September with evening thunderstorms followed by scattered late-night thunderstorms possible and a low temperature dropping,for the third straight night,down to the upper 50's to lower 60's,overnight.

Tuesday,September 16: Remaining warm with a mix of sun and some clouds and a high temperature of 75-80 degrees.Remaining mostly cloudy and seasonably mild for mid-September with a low temperature dropping to 55-60 degrees,overnight.

Wednesday,September 17: Becoming sunny and cooler than recent days with a high temperature of around 70 degrees.Becoming mainly clear and cooler than recent nights as it turns unseasonably chilly for mid-to-late September with a low temperature dropping to the upper 40's to lower 50's, overnight.

Thursday,September 18: Turning cloudy,rainy,raw,dank,and dreary,with periods of rain and a high temperature of 65-70 degrees.Remaining cloudy and rainy,but not as chilly,with periods of rain and a low temperature dropping to 55-60 degrees,overnight.

Friday,September 19: Turning mostly cloudy,rainy,stormy,and not as cool with a chance for a couple of showers and a thunderstorm possible and a high temperature of 70-75 degrees.Remaining cloudy, rainy,stormy,warm,and muggy for mid-to-late September with plenty of clouds and a chance for more showers and storms possible and a low temperature dropping to around 60 degrees,overnight.

Saturday,September 20: Remaining seasonably warm for late September with clouds breaking for some sun and a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower 70's.Turning clear and colder than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to the upper 40's to lower 50's,overnight.

Sunday,September 21: Remaining seasonably warm for late September with abundant sunshine and a high temperature of 65-70 degrees.Remaining clear and chilly with a low temperature dropping to around 50 degrees,overnight.

Monday,September 22: The last day of the 2014 summer season;one of the wettest,coolest summers on record,will be remaining seasonably warm for very late September with abundant sunshine and a high temperature of 65-70 degrees,once again.Not as cool as recent nights with clear to partly cloudy skies and a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 50's,overnight.

Tuesday,September 23: The first day of the 2014 autumn season (the 2014 Autumnal Equinox),will be remaining mostly sunny,but turning warmer than recent days with a high temperature of 70-75 degrees.Becoming partly cloudy with a chance for a spotty rain shower and a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 50's,once again,overnight.

Wednesday,September 24: Remaining seasonably warm with times of clouds and sun and a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower 70's.Remaining partly cloudy,rainy,and warm for very late September and the beginning of autumn with a spotty shower or thunderstorm possible and a low temperature dropping to 55-60 degrees,overnight.

Thursday,September 25: Becoming cloudy,rainy,and stormy,but remaining seasonably warm for very late September and the beginning of autumn with periods of rain and a thunderstorm possible and a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower 70's.Turning mostly cloudy,rainy,raw,dank,dreary,and unseasonably chilly for very late September and the beginning of autumn,with a chance for a chilly rain shower and a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees,the blustery,biting,westerly winds,which could gust past 25-mph,at times,making it feel even colder,like it's only around 40 degrees,at times,overnight.

Friday,September 26: Becoming sunny,raw,and unseasonably cool for very late September with a high temperature only in the middle 60's.Becoming mainly clear and seasonably cool for the beginning of autumn with a low temperature dropping to 50-55 degrees,overnight.

Saturday,September 27: Remaining mostly sunny and a bit cool for the end of September with a high temperature in the middle and upper 60's.Becoming partly cloudy and chilly with a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees,the blustery,biting,westerly winds,which could gust up to 30-mph,at times,making it feel unseasonably cold for the beginning of autumn,like it's only 35-40 degrees,at times,overnight.

Sunday,September 28: Remaining unseasonably cool for the end of September with partial sunshine and a high temperature of just 60-65 degrees.Remaining partly cloudy and unseasonably chilly for the beginning of autumn and the end of September with a low temperature dropping to the middle 40's, overnight.

Monday,September 29: Remaining unseasonably cool despite mostly sunny skies with a high temperature of just 60-65 degrees,once again.Turning mostly cloudy and milder/warmer than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 50's,overnight.

Tuesday,September 30: September of 2014 ends turning warmer than recent days with partial sunshine and a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower 70's.Becoming mainly clear and unseasonably mild to warm for the beginning of autumn with a low temperature dropping to the middle 50's,once again,overnight.

Wednesday,October 1: October of 2014 begins remaining mostly sunny and warm for early autumn with a high temperature of 70-75 degrees.Remaining clear to partly cloudy and mild with a low temperature dropping,for the third straight night,down to the middle 50's,overnight.

Thursday,October 2: Remaining warm for the beginning of October and early autumn with a mix of sunshine and some clouds and a chance for a thunderstorm or two and a high temperature of 70-75 degrees,once again.Remaining mild with patchy clouds and a low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 50's,overnight.

Friday,October 3: Becoming mostly sunny,but remaining rather warm for very early October and early autumn with a high temperature,for the third straight day,of 70-75 degrees.Remaining mainly clear and mild with a low temperature dropping to the middle 50's,overnight.

Saturday,October 4: Remaining mostly sunny and unseasonably warm for early October and early autumn with a high temperature,for the fourth straight day,of 70-75 degrees.Remaining partly cloudy and unseasonably mild for early October with a low temperature dropping to the middle 50's,once again,overnight.

Sunday,October 5: Becoming partly sunny,bu remaining unseasonably warm with a high temperature,for the fifth straight day,of 70-75 degrees.Remaining partly cloudy and mild with a low temperature dropping to 50-55 degrees,overnight.

Tropical Update: Looming Threat in the Atlantic?

Stu Ostro
Published: August 22,2014 


 
- Invest 96L: A fascinating system meteorologically, and one whose potential future track scenarios and model forecast trends have significant implications and still warrant close attention
 - In the meantime, it has brought flooding to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands; rain is increasing on the vulnerable island of Hispaniola (Haiti & Dominican Republic) - As NASA put it below, triple tropical tempests -- Karina, Lowell & Marie -- are in the eastern Pacific; surf's up in SoCalATLANTIC
Invest 96L
Still a squirrelly one.   Significant run-to-run and model-to-model track forecast differences continue.  Just when it looks like they might all be converging, they diverge. 
There are two primary reasons for this system's future prospects being so vexing this week.
(MORE: What's an Invest?)
One, there's a particularly sharp fork in the road.  That's the big trough -- southward dip in the jet stream -- we've been talking about which will be digging in over the western Atlantic.  The right fork is for the system to get scooped up like a shovel by the digging trough and flung northeast and way out to sea; the left fork is if it gets missed by the jet stream dip and continues west toward the U.S.   That's a very big difference in outcomes and impacts.
Two, rather than there being a clearly defined, tight, single center of circulation which the models can latch onto with precision and accuracy to start off ("initialize") their forecasts, a couple lobes of a broad circulation have been twirling around in the lower-middle part of the atmosphere, plus there still isn't yet, per aircraft reconnaissance today, a center of circulation anywhere at the surface.
And just as a small difference in location on a highway -- one lane -- can make the difference between which fork is taken, same thing with just a short distance difference in where this tropical weather system and its true center are when they come to the fork in the atmosphere in a couple days.
The amount of convection (deep rain clouds and thunderstorms) continues to increase, and with aircraft reconnaissance again having found tropical storm force winds, all it'd take is an identifiable center of circulation for 96L to be designated a tropical storm.  Like the track story, the intensity one is also tricky and complicated, but the upshot is a likelihood of this to become Cristobal and then strengthen at least some more.

So the bottom line message for the U.S. mainland remains the same, until such time that the out-to-sea-track is the one and the all-clear could be given: Stay tuned, keep abreast of the latest information.
What is changing is that as the days pass, there are fewer before a potential encounter with this system as it gets closer and closer.  As the satellite image below shows, it's not super-far away anymore.  The speed of movement is expected to slow down some after having raced quickly, but nevertheless if it were to take the left fork it'd be approaching the coast by Monday or Tuesday.
The most likely location for an initial destination in the U.S. mainland would be Florida.  (The European model, which for a couple runs showed an in-between-the-forks scenario in which the trough and the tropical system merge, the result being a track more toward North Carolina, no longer shows that, though at this point it wouldn't be shocking if that reappears as an option.)
In the meantime, per other emails today there have been impacts from heavy rain in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands; satellite images show rainfall on the increase in Hispaniola, which is vulnerable to flash flooding and mudslides, and in the Turks and Caicos, and heading toward the southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba.   Along with rain there'll be gusty winds and choppy seas.
(MORE: Detailed Forecast)
EASTERN PACIFIC
Some moisture from large Lowell with its large eye circulation reached into the southwest U.S.
No significant changes to previous days' expectations of a steering interaction between Lowell and smaller Karina.
Karina is a hurricane again; Lowell is back down to a tropical storm but still large; and Marie is on its way to being a hurricane and probably an intense one as well as being large.
No change to the expectation of ongoing elevated surf and rip current risk in SoCal.
(MORE: Glossary of Tropical Terms | New NHC Storm Surge Maps)
WESTERN PACIFIC
Still a nice lull.

REAL-TIME UPDATES

Our live wall below has the latest updates from our hurricane experts and from coastal National Weather Service offices. No need to refresh, the latest updates will appear at the top of the wall. Time stamps on each post are in Eastern U.S. time.

Heat Wave For Midwest, Southeast

By Linda Lam
Published: August 23,2014





 
The Midwest and East have not experienced a heat wave yet this summer, but a pattern change has occurred. Our forecast guidance is indicating some more typical summertime heat will continue in the South and from the Plains to the Ohio Valley through this weekend as the jet stream pushes north into Canada.
There were a few record high temperatures set on Thursday, including Fort Myers, Florida with a high of 97 degrees. Record warm low temperature records were set as well with San Antonio, Texas only dropping down to 81 degrees.
The combination of the hot temperatures and high humidity will make it feel oppressive and the length of the heat wave will make it even more dangerous. An excessive heat warning is already in place for the St. Louis area through Sunday for feels-like temperatures up to 110 degrees.
There won't be much relief at night either with low temperatures dropping only into the mid and upper 70s. There could even be a few record-warm low temperatures in Kansas City and St. Louis.
(FORECAST: St. Louis | Indianapolis)
An extended period of above-average temperatures are expected for much of the South as well. Dallas should top out near 100 degrees into the beginning of next week and Atlanta should see high temperatures in the mid 90s through Saturday.
(FORECAST: Dallas | Atlanta | Memphis)
Forecast highs may flirt with daily record highs in the Deep South over the weekend. Highs could push 100 in parts of middle and south Georgia, South Carolina and north Florida. It will be humid as well, making it feel even hotter.
Savannah, Charleston and Jacksonville may reach record high temperatures on Saturday. Record highs are also possible in Memphis and Mobile on Sunday.
(HIGHS MAPS: Fri. | Sat. | Sun.)
For the most part, the Northeast will miss out on the heat. However, parts of the Mid-Atlantic region were just a bit steamy on Thursday. Washington, D.C., reached a high of 90, its 17th 90-degree day of 2014. The nation's capital averages 33 90-degree days through the end of August, so they are well behind the average pace.
(FORECAST: New York | Pittsburgh | Washington, D.C.)

Lack of Heat Waves

Daily record cool temperatures, both cool morning lows and cool afternoon highs, have been quite frequent this summer for much of the eastern half of the nation. Residents of Indiana and Arkansas saw their coolest July on record, and Illinois, Mississippi and Missouri saw their second coolest July.
Little Rock has only seen three days this summer with high temperatures at or above 95 degrees through Sunday. Their average is 16 days each year. The mean high temperature for the month of July was more than 5 degrees below average in Memphis and 2.5 degrees below average in Atlanta.
(MORE: Record Cool July)
Places like Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Buffalo still have yet to hit 90 degrees this year.
Chicago has seen only 3 days of 90 degree temperatures or higher and the average for a summer is 14. Minneapolis has only seen temperatures at 90 or above twice and the highest temperature recorded was 92 degrees on July 21.
The Midwest overall has not seen too many days with both excessively hot temperatures and high humidity.
The National Weather Service defines a heat wave as a period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and unusually humid weather. Typically a heat wave lasts two or more days.
The definition for a heat wave from the American Meteorological Society's Glossary of Meteorology is a period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and usually humid weather. To be considered a heat wave, such a period should last at least one day, but conventionally it lasts from several days to several weeks.
Why have we not seen any heat waves this summer? A dip in the jet stream has been over much of the East this summer, which has allowed cold fronts to push farther south than usual. This has brought the cooler and less humid conditions to the East.

The highest temperature Cleveland has seen this year was 90 degrees on June 17, 18 and 28. Detroit has also seen a shortage of hot days with only two days reaching above 90 degrees.
Temperatures have not been as cool, relative to average, in the Northeast as compared to the Midwest. However, we have not seen any heat waves for Boston or New York either.
A heat wave for much of the Northeast is generally defined as three or more days in a row with temperatures at or above 90 degrees.
Both cities have only climbed over the 90-degree mark four times this year. The first occurrence of a 90-degree day did not even happen until July 2 for both New York and Boston.

Tropical Disturbance Moving Through Hispaniola: U.S. Threat Ahead?

August 23,2014



 
A tropical disturbance is pushing its way from the Caribbean into the Atlantic, and it is still being closely monitored for potential development into a tropical depression or tropical storm.
Here's what we now know -- and don't know -- about this potential tropical threat.

Where is the Disturbance Now?

As shown in the infrared satellite image above, the general area of disturbed weather has now pushed north of the Caribbean Sea, affecting portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Air Force Hurricane Hunters flew into this disturbance Friday afternoon and evening to determine whether a surface low pressure circulation -- which requires that not only the east or northeast winds typically found in the Northern Hemisphere tropics, but also a westerly wind -- be present.
The Hurricane Hunters found a small area of low pressure with a poorly-defined circulation. However, it did find a small area of tropical storm-force winds. While the NHC opted not to initiate advisories, it is possible that Tropical Depression Four -- or, given the wind speeds, Tropical Storm Cristobal -- could be christened within the next 48 hours if the system's convection and circulation can just get a little better organized.
This is the first hurdle for this system to clear.
(MORE: Tropical Terms You Need to Know)

Caribbean Impact

Rain and gusty winds will continue to spread through the Caribbean through the weekend, regardless of what the system is called.
Mudslides and flash flooding have already been reported throughout the island of Puerto Rico on Friday afternoon.
Through the overnight, locally heavy rain will fall over parts of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos.
(FORECASTS: St. Thomas | St. Croix | San Juan | Punta Cana)
This weekend, bands of rain will spread into the southeast Bahamas, Jamaica, Cuba and possibly the Cayman Islands.
(FORECASTS: Ocho Rios | Grand Cayman | Nassau)
Local flash flooding is a possibility, particularly over mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Flood watches have been posted for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Again, it remains to be seen whether the system will be Cristobal, a depression or still a fledgling tropical disturbance, which will also, of course, factor into other potential impacts, including winds, coastal flooding and high surf. A track over more land would also limit development of the system in the Caribbean.

U.S. Threat?

To be clear, it is still too soon to determine with certainty if this system will have any direct impacts on the mainland U.S.
(MORE: Why Long-Range Model Forecasts in the Tropics Can't Often Be Trusted)
A crucial player in determining if the U.S. will be impacted appears to be a southward dip in the jet stream expected to carve out over the western Atlantic Ocean. There appear to still be three scenarios at this time:
1) Avoiding the U.S.: If the system tracks farther north in the Caribbean, and the jet stream dip is sufficiently strong and penetrates far enough south, the system may turn sharply north, then northeast after leaving the southeast Bahamas. In this scenario, the U.S. coast would be missed -- except for perhaps some high surf next week.
2) East Coast threat: If the system either isn't pulled far enough north by the jet stream dip or the jet stream dip passes by into the north Atlantic, it may track much closer to at least part of the East Coast next week.
3) Gulf of Mexico:  The system may continue toward the west-northwest, then head into the eastern Gulf of Mexico where it would strengthen. For now, this scenario appears to have a low, but not zero probability.
Forecast uncertainty is typically very high several days out even in cases of a well-defined tropical cyclone, which we don't have yet. Therefore, we cannot take either of these scenarios completely off the table yet.
All interests along the East Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Check back with us at The Weather Channel and weather.com for the latest on this potential threat.
(EXPERT ANALYSIS: The Weather Channel | Dr. Jeff Masters from Weather Underground)
In the meantime, now is an excellent time to make sure you're hurricane ready.

Weather Underground National Forecast for Friday,August 22,2014 from weatherunderground.com

By: nationalsummary , 10:13PM,GMT on August 21,2014





Weather Underground Forecast for Friday,August 22,2014

A cold front will extend across the upper Intermountain West and the northern Plains on Friday, while a separate frontal boundary will stretch from the upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic.

A cold front will dip southward over the Intermountain West and the northern Plains. As this frontal boundary interacts with monsoonal moisture, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the upper Intermountain West, the northern Plains and the central Plains. Heavy rain associated with these thunderstorms will bring a chance of flash flooding to Montana. Just to the south, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Four Corners as monsoonal moisture surges across the region. The majority of the West Coast will stay clear of wet weather due to a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific.

A separate frontal boundary will extend across the upper Midwest, the Ohio Valley, the central Appalachians and the northern Mid-Atlantic. Warm, muggy air from the Gulf of Mexico will collide with this frontal boundary to initiate heavy rain and thunderstorms over the region. Heavy rain could lead to flash flooding over eastern Kentucky, eastern Ohio, West Virginia, southwest Pennsylvania, western Maryland and western Virginia. Rainy weather will also develop over the Northeast.

Meanwhile, an onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to trigger isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast and the Southeast. The Deep South and the middle Mississippi Valley will stay mostly clear on Friday.

This Date in Weather History for August 22,2014 from weatherforyou.com

Weather History
For Friday,August 22,2014
 
 
1816 - The growing season for corn was cut short as damaging frosts were reported from North Carolina to interior New England. (David Ludlum)
1923 - The temperature at Anchorage, AK, reached 82 degrees, a record for August for the location which was later tied on the 2nd in 1978. (The Weather Channel)
1987 - A cold front lowered temperatures 20 to 40 degrees across the north central U.S., and produced severe thunderstorms in Ohio and Lower Michigan. An early morning thunderstorm near Sydney MI produced high winds which spun a car around 180 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - Afternoon highs of 88 degrees at Astoria, OR, and 104 degrees at Medford, OR, were records for the date, and the number of daily record highs across the nation since the first of June topped the 2000 mark. (The National Weather Summary)
1989 - Evening thunderstorms in the central U.S. produced golf ball size hail at May City IA, and wind gusts to 66 mph at Balltown IA. Lightning struck a barn in Fayette County IA killing 750 hogs. Evening thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Havre. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1992 - Hurricane Andrew makes landfall in Southern Florida as a Category 5 storm with wind guests estimated in excess of 175 m.p.h. Estimated damages exceeded $20 billion, more than 60 people were killed and approximately 2 million people were evacuated from their homes. (University of Illinois WW2010)

Heat Dangers to Accompany Oppressive Air Across the South

By Jordan Root, Meteorologist
August 22,2014; 9:18PM,EDT
 
 
As temperatures rise across the South through the weekend, so will the risk for heat-related dangers.
An area of high pressure is expected to remain anchored across the south-central United States over the next several days. As a result, a zone of sinking and warming air will settle in across the region.
Cities that will be sizzling in the heat include Little Rock, Arkansas; Jackson, Mississippi; Atlanta, Georgia; Tallahassee, Florida; Jacksonville, Florida; Savannah, Georgia; and Chattanooga, Tennessee.
Although heat is common across the South during a typical summer, the temperature balance has leaned more toward the cooler side during this summer season.

"The upcoming weather pattern may deliver some of the hottest weather this summer," said AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Humidity levels will lead to an oppressive and stifling stretch of days that will last into at least the weekend, perhaps into next week for some areas.
It is believed that excessive heat and a high demand for power caused a major transformer to catch fire in the town of Ozark, Missouri on Thursday, disrupting electric service for more than 4,500 electric customers.

The heat and humidity combined will push AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures well above 105 F for many, bringing an increase in heat-related dangers for folks.
Those most at risk include the elderly and young children, although everybody can be affected by the heat.
RELATED:
AccuWeather Temperature Forecast Maps
Hundreds Die From Exposure to Heat, Humidity Each Year
Battling the Heat: Health Dangers for Runners, Swimmers

Anybody who plans on partaking in any outdoor activities will want to take the necessary actions to battle the sizzling stretch.
Drinking plenty of water will help to keep your body hydrated and cool. Alcoholic and caffeinated beverages are a poor choice when battling the heat.
Dressing in light-colored clothing will help reflect heat and sunlight, keeping the body cooler.
Changing what you eat will actually lower your risk for heat-illnesses as well. Foods like meat and other proteins increase body heat.
Although being outside in the oppressive heat can be dangerous, being inside a vehicle can turn deadly.

Never leave disabled adults, children or pets alone in a vehicle. Heat becomes trapped inside the vehicle, causing the temperature to rise rapidly in a short amount of time.
Make sure to check on the elderly often and don't forget about pets. Keep water dishes stocked with fresh and cold water and make sure they have shade if they are unable to be brought inside.
Dry weather will accompany the area of high pressure as thunderstorm chances are suppressed. The bulk of the storms will remain on the northern periphery of the high.
Some relief will come as the weekend draws to the end. A shot of cooler and less humid air will stream into the Southeast, eventually traveling farther west into the Mississippi Valley early next week.

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Aug 21

Weekly Wrap Up: Rare Floods Engulf Phoenix, Wildfire Rages in West

By Michael Kuhne, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
August 22,2014; 9:16PM,EDT
 
 
Early in the week heavy rainfall swept across areas of the Southwest, prompting historic flooding in the Phoenix, Arizona, region. In the wake of the severe flooding, several people were left stranded, and in need of being rescued.
"There were slow-moving bands of heavy rainfall that tracked across the area, producing rainfall rates of more than 1 inch per hour," AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Brian Edwards said, adding monsoonal moisture is the reason behind the heavy rainfall.
By Tuesday evening, some locations had received more than 4 inches of rain, NOAA reported.
AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said it is not unprecedented to get flooding in the Phoenix area, and cited various instances in which the region has been inundated by severe flooding since the late 1800s.
"This is not a set-up we see every year," Rayno said, referring to the monsoonal moisture which normally brings isolated thunderstorms to the area, and an upper low moving across California that contributed to focusing the storms just north of the area.
(Photo/brett_silva)
The combination of the focused storms, terrain and Arizona soil all worked together to provide the conditions for damaging floodwaters that swept across the region north of Phoenix, he said.
Heavy rainfall also contributed to massive landslides that killed dozens of people and caused damage near Hiroshima, Japan, in the early morning hours Wednesday.
The Japan Meteorological Agency reported that 217.5 mm (8.54 inches) of rain fell in just a three-hour period, 101.0 mm (3.98 inches) of which fell in just one hour.
This substantial amount of rain set a new all-time record in Hiroshima for the amount of rain in a three-hour period, more than doubling the old record of 101 mm set on Aug. 5, 1997.
Heavy rains on Thursday night left several Chicago areas flooded, including many residential areas.
Midway Airport recorded 4.45 inches of rain in less than three hours.
Some commuters faced travel delays Friday morning as the intense rain flooded some roadways and caused CTA lines to shut down according to the Chicago Tribune.
Intense rains flooded Chicago area neighborhoods like this one in Bellwood. (Photo/Jerome Sutter)
Also on Thursday, a rolling dust storm, known as a haboob, swept through the Coachella Valley in California.
Haboobs form when "outflow downdrafts from thunderstorms cause strong winds that pick up dust," according to AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Ken Clark.
In Madera County, California, a wildfire scorched more than 600 acres and destroyed 47 structures in its wake. More than 13,000 people were under force evacuation orders as the fire raged.
Two people suffered injuries as a result, according to California fire officials.
"While California is typically very dry this time of year, the ongoing drought conditions increase the threat of new wildfires," according to AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Leister.
"The drought can cause wildfires to spread more easily, but also weather conditions, such a wind speed and direction as well as relative humidity, will determine how quickly the fire spreads in any given location."
Across the Deep South, temperatures continue to build, pushing the mercury to the century mark in some areas.
Forty-seven structures have been destroyed by the blaze since it ignited. (Photo/Madera County Sheriff's Office)
An area of high pressure is expected to remain across the south-central United States over the next several days.
"The upcoming weather pattern may deliver some of the hottest weather this summer," said AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Humidity levels will lead to an oppressive and stifling stretch of days that will last into the weekend, and may linger into next week for some areas.
Anybody who plans on partaking in any outdoor activities will want to take the necessary actions to battle the sizzling stretch.
Drinking plenty of water will help to keep your body hydrated and cool. Alcoholic and caffeinated beverages are a poor choice when battling the heat.
Other AccuWeather.com Staff Writers contributed to this article.

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Tropical Storm Cristobal to Form, Impact US Eastern Beaches

By , Senior Meteorologist
August 22,2014; 9:15PM,EDT
 
 
While a tropical low is expected to brew into Tropical Storm Cristobal this weekend, the East Coast of the United States is being monitored for future impacts -- even if the storm remains well offshore.
The low has been struggling to develop tropically since emerging from the coast of Africa due to dusty air, disruptive wind shear and, more recently, interaction with the Caribbean Islands.
As conditions become more conducive, AccuWeather.com Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski expects the low to become Tropical Storm Cristobal this weekend.
Regardless of when the low strengthens, torrential downpours and gusty squalls will continue to spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and to the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday.

Similar impacts will reach eastern Cuba Friday night through Saturday, while lingering downpours over the Windward and Leeward islands will diminish Friday night.
"The downpours will raise the risk of flash flooding, road washouts and mudslides but can also ease dry conditions on some of the islands," stated AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

Track of Future Tropical Storm Cristobal

Beyond Saturday, there are several pieces of the puzzle that AccuWeather.com meteorologists are monitoring which would influence the future track of the low and future impacts to the U.S. East Coast.
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According to Kottlowski, latest indications point toward what should be Cristobal passing over or near the Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday, east of the Bahamas through the remainder of the weekend and then in between Bermuda and the eastern U.S. early next week.
Downpours and gusty squalls will continue to accompany the low along its path with damaging winds and rough surf becoming an increasing concern as Cristobal takes shape.

"There is opportunity for the evolving Cristobal to become a very strong tropical storm and perhaps even intensify into a hurricane as it passes just east of the Carolinas early next week," continued Kottlowski.
The low has been guided westward by the large Atlantic ridge of high pressure this week. As the jet stream drops southward along the U.S. East Coast, the low is expected to get pulled to the north and then northeast -- in similar fashion to Bertha from earlier this summer.
"If the [jet stream] were to be weaker and the high stronger, this system could move on a track much closer to the U.S.," added Kottlowski.

"However, these southward dips in the jet stream into the tropics have been fairly persistent this year and we feel this particular situation will be similar."
"Even if a tropical storm or hurricane was to stay east of the East Coast of the U.S., a strong system would generate swells that propagate outward that could reach the shoreline in the form of rough surf and strong rip currents during the last week of August," warned Sosnowski.
Such danger could create hazards for beachgoers trying to get in one last vacation before summer comes to a close.
While the above scenario for Cristobal is what the latest indications are pointing to, it is not the only scenario.
"There is an outside chance that the low ends up stalling off the East Coast next week, which could lead to it getting drawn back westward toward the coast," stated AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity.
This scenario would unfold if the low misses getting totally picked up by the jet stream and then guided back to the west around the backside of the ridge that is currently baking the central and southern U.S.
Future Cristobal could also take a sharper turn to the northeast over the Atlantic and take aim at Bermuda.
As the window of possibilities is narrowed down over the next few days -- well ahead of the storm, interests from the Caribbean to the Bahamas, Bermuda and the East Coast of the U.S. should closely monitor the situation.
Kottlowski added that the low should turn to the north and northeast before making a run at the Gulf of Mexico.

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Heavy Rain to Soak Great Falls, Bismarck, Winnipeg

By Brian Lada, Meteorologist
August 22,2014; 9:13PM,EDT
 
 
A swath of steady, soaking rain will slowly shift from the northern Plains to the Canadian Prairies this weekend, making people reach for their umbrellas and heightening concerns for flooding.
Raincoats and pants may be the preferred choice over shorts and t-shirts for people in Billings, Montana, Bismarck, North Dakota, Regina, Saskatchewan and Winnipeg, Manitoba, as the rain and thick cloud cover is accompanied by temperatures well below normal.
Highs will run as much as 20 degrees below normal in areas impacted by the rain, making it feel more like October rather than August. Some locations in southern Saskatchewan may even fail to climb out of the 40s on Sunday.
This storm will produce so much cold air that it will generate some snowfall for the highest elevations of northern Montana. Upwards of 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible above 6,500 feet in elevation, with up to a foot of snow on the highest mountain peaks through Saturday.
The heavy rain will evolve Friday night and continue through Sunday.

This rain may have negative impacts on events across the region this weekend, including the Great Saskatchewan Mustard Festival set to be held in Regina on Sunday.
Rumbles of thunder may also be embedded in the rain closer to North Dakota. Across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota is where strong thunderstorms with hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will erupt Saturday afternoon and evening.
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Flooding should be anticipated across the zone where the heaviest rain is expected to fall.
With over 2 inches of rain forecast to fall over such a large area, rivers will rise and likely remain above normal for the days following the rain.
Areas closest to creeks and rivers should prepare now in the case that river flooding does occur.

Looking ahead to the upcoming week, the heavy rain is projected to shift to the north and east, but the cooler weather will remain.
A few showers may still linger around the area in the wake of the rain; however, the showers will not be long lasting with most of Monday and Tuesday being dry.

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Pittsburgh: Storms to Retreat By Sunday

By , Senior Meteorologist
August 22,2014; 9:12PM,EDT
 
 
While residents will face more disruptions to outdoor activities on Saturday, dry air will push southward across Pittsburgh to end the weekend.
Yet another day of a shower or thunderstorm crossing Pittsburgh is shaping up for Saturday, forcing some outdoor plans or sporting events to be delayed or moved indoors.
Southwestern Pennsylvania will escape an all-day rain event. The showers and thunderstorms will instead occasionally move through the area.
While some may not mind getting wet for a time, residents should remember to seek shelter as soon as thunder is heard. You are then close enough to be struck by lightning.

There will even be breaks of sunshine, allowing temperatures to rise into the lower 80s. AccuWeather.com RealFeel® temperatures will exceed actual temperatures due to higher humidity.
As dry air presses southward, rain chances will be gone from Pittsburgh on Sunday.
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Humidity will be lower underneath a partly sunny sky. Temperatures will once again rise into the lower 80s, which is typical for this time of year.
Sunday will definitely be the better half of the weekend for outdoor activities and sporting events.

During next week, there are signs of some warmer weather for a few days. Temperatures will soar back into the middle 80s.

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FLASH Urges Early Action in Hurricane Preparation

By Samantha-Rae Tuthill, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
August 22,2014; 9:10PM,EDT
 
 
Hurricane Katrina was the costliest hurricane to ever hit the U.S., and brought 28-feet of storm surge that flooded 80 percent of New Orleans. Photo by NOAA.
Hurricane season is ramping up, and it's right on track to be active in September and October. During this time of year, people who live in hurricane-prone areas need to be prepared well in advance of an incoming storm to help them evacuate quickly or protect their homes.
Leslie Chapman-Henderson, president and CEO of FLASH, the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, said "We always tell families to start by preparing the people, so when it comes to getting the family ready the first thing that they need to do is decide where you are going to be."
Chapman-Henderson emphasized the importance of following evacuation orders when they are put in place for a location.
Besides knowing where you will go when you evacuate, it is also important to know how you are going to get there. Plans should extend beyond just taking cover at your local shelter, as spaces may be limited.
Make sure you prepare an emergency kit, including food and water supplies, medicine and pet supplies. Remember to have easy access to important documents, paperwork, family photos and items that are not easily replaced should damage to the home occur.
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If evacuation is not an option, an emergency kit is also a critical step for those who plan to stay home and ride out a storm. Often the real danger in surviving a hurricane is not just about lasting through the storm, but staying protected in its aftermath. Powerful hurricanes can knock out power, bridges and roads for days that can leave those behind stranded and without provisions. An adequate supply of nonperishable food, medicine, batteries and clean drinking water (a gallon per person, per day) should be enough to last many days after a storm.
When staying behind in a hurricane, people should always stay indoors and make sure that pets are kept inside.
Even those who are not in the direct path of the storm are at risk of power outages, so those near a storm's target area should take steps to ensure protection should they lose power. Generators can be incredibly helpful to those facing the possibility of a long-term power outage.
"We tell families to just close their eyes and think about what would you regret not doing if you were sitting right now and a storm was coming, and that will tell them 'oh, I should get my flashlights out and get some fresh batteries'," Chapman-Henderson said.
It will be much easier to get these plans and supplies together while it is still relatively calm, rather than trying to fight through crowds and the panic that comes with last-minute planning. By having plans in place early, people can face a storm with more calm knowing that they are already prepared.
Chapman-Henderson recommends staying prepared all year round, regardless of location, in case of any kind of natural disaster.
This includes having plans in place to protect your homes and property.
Hurricane Andrew, Fla., Aug. 24, 1992 -- Many houses, businesses and personal effects suffered extensive damage from one of the most destructive hurricanes ever recorded in America. One million people were evacuated and 54 died in this hurricane. Photo by Bob Epstein, FEMA News.
One of the biggest threats to a home during a hurricane is wind damage. Before evacuating, or if trying to ride out a storm, closing storm shutters or boarding up doors and windows will help to prevent this damage. Hurricane winds can exceed 157 mph. Winds of this magnitude can easily blow out doors, especially garage doors, and windows and can tear through a house. By giving these entry points extra protection, you may be able to minimize damage to your home.
Roofs are also susceptible to high wind damage. Checking your attic before a storm comes in can help assess the vulnerability of a roof. Water stains or loose nails can signal weak points in a roof that a professional may need to come in and repair before a storm arrives. Anchoring a roof is another option for protecting it during a storm. FLASH.org has instructions for how to DIY repair weak spots in a roof.
The most damaging aspect of a hurricane is typically flooding and storm surge. For many homes in areas where flooding is likely, home owner's insurance will not cover the damage that comes with storm surge when a hurricane hits. Having supplemental flood insurance can help. This insurance can take up to 30 days to go into effect, so having it ahead of a storm is crucial.
"So often, evacuation decisions can make the difference between life and death," Chapman-Henderson said. "At the minimum, they make the difference in comfort."
She stressed that regardless of how often your area is hit by storms or how well you may have been able to ride out a storm in the past, each threat should be taken seriously and prepared for adequately. She cited Sandy as an example, explaining that many people in the Northeast may have prepared for Hurricane Irene and not experienced very much damage. This led some to put their guards down when Sandy moved through, which may have contributed to unnecessary losses of life.

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Rain to Retreat by Little League World Series Finale

By , Senior Meteorologist
August 22,2014; 9:09PM,EDT
 
 
While some rain threatens to cause disruptions through Saturday, drier air will work into central Pennsylvania before Sunday's Little League World Series Championship Game.
Another day of occasional rain dampening Williamsport, Pennsylvania, is shaping up for Saturday.
The good news is that lightning will not be a concern on Saturday, but it is not out of the question that enough rain falls to force umpires to delay the International and United States Championship games.
Even if the games escape delays, the rain will cause a nuisance to players. Spectators will definitely want to grab their umbrellas and rain gear before heading to the game.

The combination of the rain and accompanying blanket of clouds will hold temperatures on Saturday to the lower 70s. That is roughly 10 degrees below normal.
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Saturday's dreary conditions will be replaced by drier and milder weather as the winner of Little League World Series is crowned on Sunday.
As will be the case on Saturday, those driving to or around Williamsport early Sunday morning will have to contend with fog reducing visibility.

Some sunshine will then return for the afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise to the 80-degree mark. Humidity will be lower than recent days, complimenting the weather and the finale of what is always a great tournament.

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Another Cool Weekend for Boston, But Warmer Air Awaits

By , Senior Meteorologist
August 22,2014; 9:08PM,EDT
 
 
This weekend will feel more like September around Boston, but the return of summer warmth is on the horizon for next week.
High pressure sinking southward from Canada will once again create a September-like feel to the air in Boston this weekend.
Temperatures will be held to the lower 70s both Saturday and Sunday, when highs in the upper 70s are more common.
Sunday will be the better half of the weekend for outdoor plans and sporting events with a shower in the forecast for Saturday.

The start of the weekend, however, will be far from a washout. The showers will be brief and spotty, allowing parts of the city and its suburbs to stay dry.
Clouds will otherwise mix with sunshine on Saturday as humidity lowers. Sunday will feature a good deal of sunshine.
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Baseball fans headed to Fenway Park to watch the Red Sox face the Seattle Mariners Sunday afternoon will definitely want to wear sunscreen and take other precautions against the harmful rays of the sun.
High pressure and sunshine will remain in control through at least the first half of the new week. Temperatures will also rebound during this time, soaring well into the 80s by midweek.

While a surge of warmth is good news for those wanting to enjoy time at the beach before summer comes to a close, AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring the formation of Tropical Storm Cristobal in the southwestern Atlantic this weekend, which could kick up rough surf at the beaches next week.

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