Monday, September 22, 2014

New York City metro-area forecast for September 22-November 5,2014 from accuweather.com

Here's the 45-day weather forecast for the New York City metro-area for the period of the last 9 days of September,all of October,and the first 5 days of November (September 22-November 5),2014 from accuweather.com








Tonight,September 22-23: Turning much colder than recent nights with patchy clouds and a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees,overnight.As of 11PM,EDT,it's 52 degrees and clear,with 58% humidity,in White Plains,NY,and it's 58 degrees and clear,with 48% humidity,in New York City.

Tomorrow,September 23: The first (full),day of the 2014 autumn season will be remaining seasonably warm and beautiful with plenty of gorgeous sunshine,and a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower 70's.

Tomorrow night,September 23-24: Becoming clear and not as cool,with a low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 50's,overnight.

Wednesday,September 24: Becoming partly sunny,but remaining seasonably warm for very late September,with a high temperature of 70-75 degrees.Remaining clear and mild with a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 50's,overnight.

Thursday,September 25: Remaining seasonably warm with variable cloudiness and a high temperature of 70-75 degrees,once again.Becoming clear,but remaining seasonably mild with a low temperature dropping to the middle 50's,once again,overnight.

Friday,September 26: Turning warmer than recent days with plenty of sunshine,and a high temperature of 75-80 degrees.Remaining clear and mild to warm with a low temperature dropping to 55-60 degrees,overnight.

Saturday,September 27: Remaining unseasonably very warm for the end of September,with plenty of gorgeous,blazing sunshine,and a high temperature in the upper 70's to lower 80's.Remaining clear and mild to warm for the beginning of autumn,with a low temperature dropping to around 60 degrees, overnight.

Sunday,September 28: Remaining mostly sunny and unseasonably very warm for the end of September with a record,or near record high temperature of 80-85 degrees.Remaining warm with increasing cloudiness and a low temperature dropping to the upper 50's to lower 60's,overnight.

Monday,September 29: Not as warm,but remaining quite comfortable for the beginning of autumn, with a mix of sunshine and some clouds and a high temperature of 75-80 degrees.Remaining mild to warm with patchy clouds and a low temperature dropping to 55-60 degrees,overnight.

Tuesday,September 30: September of 2014 ends turning cloudy,rainy,and much cooler/colder than recent days with periods of rain and a high temperature in the middle and upper 60's.Remaining cloudy and rainy,but turning cooler than recent nights with periods of rain,and a low temperature dropping to 50-55 degrees,overnight.

Wednesday,October 1: October of 2014 begins remaining cloudy,rainy,and seasonably mild to warm for very early autumn,with a thick cloud cover and spotty rain showers and a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower 70's.Not as cool with considerable cloudiness and a low temperature dropping to 55-60 degrees,overnight.

Thursday,October 2: Remaining cloudy,but turning much warmer than recent days,as it turns unseasonably very warm,once again,this time for the beginning of October,with a near record high temperature of around 80 degrees.Remaining cloudy and rainy,but turning much colder than recent nights with considerable cloudiness and a chance for a passing evening rain shower followed by some late-night rain possible and a low temperature plunging to the lower and middle 40's,the blustery, westerly winds,which could gust up to 20-mph,at times,making it feel even colder,like it's only 35-40 degrees,at times,overnight.

Friday,October 3: Not as warm with morning cloudiness and a chance for a passing morning rain shower followed by some warm sunshine,and a high temperature of 70-75 degrees.Becoming clear and unseasonably cold for the beginning of October,with a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower 40's,overnight.

Saturday,October 4: Turning sunny and markedly colder than recent days with a high temperature only in the upper 50's to lower 60's.Remaining clear and unseasonably cold for very early October and early autumn,with a near record low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower 40's,once again,overnight.

Sunday,October 5: Remaining mostly sunny,but not as cool,with a high temperature of 65-70 degrees.Becoming partly cloudy and milder than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees,overnight.

Monday,October 6: Remaining sunny,but turning markedly warmer than recent days as it turns unseasonably very warm,once again,this time for early October and early autumn,with a high temperature of around 80 degrees.Turning partly cloudy and colder,as it turns very cold for early October,once again,with a slight chance for a rain shower and a low temperature plunging to the upper 30's to lower 40's,overnight.

Tuesday,October 7: Not as warm,as it turns much cooler than recent days with mostly cloudy skies and a chance for a stray morning rain shower and a high temperature only in the middle and upper 60's.Remaining mostly cloudy and rather cold for early autumn and early October,with a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to  lower and middle 40's,once again,overnight.

Wednesday,October 8: Turning even cooler,despite ample sunshine,with a high temperature only in the upper 50's to lower 60's.Becoming mostly cloudy,rainy,and milder than recent nights with evening rain showers followed by a spotty,late night rain shower and a low temperature dropping to the middle 40's,overnight.

Thursday,October 9: Turning cloudy,rainy,and milder,with periods of rain,and a high temperature of 60-65 degrees.Remaining cloudy and rainy,but turning warmer than recent nights with patchy clouds and a chance for a spotty evening rain shower followed by some late-night rain showers,and a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees,the blustery,biting,westerly winds,which could gust past 20-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the middle and upper 30's,at times, overnight.

Friday,October 10: Remaining cloudy,rainy,and stormy,but turning warmer than recent days with a chance for a couple of morning rain showers and thunderstorms followed by a little afternoon rain shower and a high temperature in the middle and upper 60's.Becoming clear and colder than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower 40's,the blustery,biting, northwesterly winds,which could gust up to 30-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the upper 20's to lower 30's,at times,overnight.

Saturday,October 11: Remaining cloudy and rainy,but turning cooler/colder than recent days with considerable cloudiness and a chance for a little rain and a high temperature of just 55-60 degrees.Not as cold,but remaining mainly cloudy with a chance for a stray rain shower and a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees,the blustery,biting,northwesterly winds,which could gust past 25-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only 35-40 degrees,at times,overnight.

Sunday,October 12: Remaining mainly cloudy and seasonably mild to warm a spotty morning rain shower and a high temperature in the upper 50's to lower 60's.Becoming partly cloudy and cooler with a low temperature dropping to the middle 40's,the blustery,biting,northwesterly winds,which could gust up to 25-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the lower and middle 30's,at times,overnight.

Monday,October 13: Columbus Day 2014 will be turning partly sunny,raw,and cool,with a high temperature of 55-60 degrees.Becoming mainly clear and colder than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower 40's,the blustery,biting,northwesterly winds,which could gust past 30-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only 25-30 degrees,at times, overnight.

Tuesday,October 14: Becoming mostly sunny,but remaining unseasonably cool for mid-October with a high temperature only in the middle and upper 50's.Remaining clear and cold with a low temperature dropping to around 40 degrees,overnight.

Wednesday,October 15: Remaining sunny,but turning much warmer than recent days with a high temperature of around 70 degrees.Becoming partly cloudy and warmer than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to 50-55 degrees,overnight.

Thursday,October 16: Becoming partly sunny,but remaining unseasonably warm for mid-October with a high temperature of around 70 degrees,once again.Becoming mainly clear,but remaining unseasonably mild for mid-October,with a low temperature dropping to the upper 40's to lower 50's, overnight.

Friday,October 17: Becoming sunny,but remaining unseasonably mild to warm with a high temperature,for the third straight day,of around 70 degrees.Remaining mainly clear and mild with a spotty rain shower possible and a low temperature dropping to the upper 40's to lower 50's,once again,overnight.

Saturday,October 18: Remaining unseasonably mild to warm for mid-to-late October,with partial sunshine,and a high temperature of 65-70 degrees.Remaining partly cloudy and mild with a low temperature dropping,for the third straight night,down to the upper 40's to lower 50's,overnight.

Sunday,October 19: Turning much cooler/colder than recent days,despite ample sunshine,with a high temperature only in the middle 50's.Turning clear and much colder than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to 35-40 degrees,overnight.

Monday,October 20: Remaining unseasonably cool for early-to-mid autumn,and late October,with thickening cloudiness and a high temperature only in the middle and upper 50's.Not as cold with considerable cloudiness and a low temperature dropping to the middle 40's,overnight.

Tuesday,October 21: Remaining cloudy,raw,and cool,but turning rainy with rain at times,and a high temperature only in the middle 50's.Remaining cloudy,rainy,raw,and seasonably cool for late October, with considerable cloudiness and a chance for a little rain and a low temperature dropping to the middle 40's,once again,overnight.

Wednesday,October 22: Remaining rather cloudy,rainy,raw,and cool,with a spotty morning rain shower and a high temperature only in the middle 50's,once again.Remaining cloudy,and rainy,but turning colder,with considerable cloudiness,and a chance for a little rain and a low temperature dropping to around 40 degrees,the blustery,biting,northwesterly winds,which could gust past 25-mph, at times,making it feel much colder,making it feel quite cold for late October,like it's only in the lower and middle 20's,at times,overnight.

Thursday,October 23: Remaining raw and cool,but turning windy with times of clouds and sun and a high temperature of just 50-55 degrees.Remaining partly cloudy and seasonably chilly to cold for mid-autumn and very late October,with a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower 40's, the blustery,biting,westerly winds,which could gust past 25-mph,at times,once again,making it feel very cold for very late October,like it's only around 30 degrees,at times,overnight.

Friday,October 24: Remaining unseasonably cool for very late October with times of clouds and sun and a high temperature in the lower and middle 50's.Remaining partly cloudy,but not as cold,with a low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 40's,overnight.

Saturday,October 25: Turning cloudy,rainy,and milder than recent days with a chance for a little rain and a high temperature in the upper 50's to lower and middle 60's.Remaining mostly cloudy and rainy,but turning colder than recent nights with a chance for a little evening rain and a low temperature dropping to 35-40 degrees,the blustery,biting,northwesterly winds,which could gust up to 25-mph,at times,making it feel quite cold for very late October,like it's only 20-25 degrees,at times, overnight.

Sunday,October 26: Turning mostly sunny and cooler with a high temperature of just 50-55 degrees.Remaining mainly clear and cold with a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 30's,overnight.

Monday,October 27: Remaining mostly sunny and cool with a high temperature of just 50-55 degrees,once again.Remaining mainly clear and seasonably chilly to cold for the end of October,with a low temperature dropping to 35-40 degrees,overnight.

Tuesday,October 28: Not as cool with partial sunshine,and a high temperature in the middle and upper 50's.Becoming cloudy and much milder than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 40's,the blustery,biting,southwesterly winds,which could gust past 30-mph,at times,making it feel colder,like it's only 35-40 degrees,at times,overnight.

Wednesday,October 29: Remaining seasonably mild with a blend of sun and clouds and a high temperature of 55-60 degrees.Remaining partly cloudy and seasonably chilly for the end of October, with a low temperature dropping to 40-45 degrees,overnight.

Thursday,October 30: Remaining a bit cool for the end of October with ample sunshine,and a high temperature in the lower and middle 50's.Remaining mainly clear and seasonably cold for mid-autumn,with a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower 40's,overnight.

Friday,October 31: Halloween 2014 will be remaining seasonably mild for mid-autumn with a mix of sun and some clouds and a high temperature of 55-60 degrees.Not as cold,with mainly cloudy skies and a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 40's,overnight.

Saturday,November 1: November of 2014 begins turning cloudy,rainy,and warmer than recent days as it turns unseasonably mild to warm for mid-autumn,with rain at times and a high temperature of 60-65 degrees.Remaining cloudy,rainy,and mild,with considerable cloudiness and a chance for rain showers and a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 40's,once again,the blustery,biting, southeasterly winds,which could gust past 30-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only 30-35 degrees,at times,overnight.

Sunday,November 2: Remaining cloudy,rainy,stormy,and unseasonably mild for the beginning of November,with a chance for showers and thunderstorms possible and a high temperature of 60-65 degrees,once again.Remaining partly cloudy,rainy,stormy,and unseasonably mild with scattered showers and a rare mid-autumn thunderstorm possible and a low temperature dropping,for the third straight night,down to the middle and upper 40's,overnight.

Monday,November 3: Not as warm,but remaining rainy and stormy with variable cloudiness and a chance for more showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature in the upper 50's to lower 60's.Remaining cloudy,rainy,and mild,with evening showers followed by a spotty late-night rain shower and a low temperature dropping,for the fourth straight night,down to the middle 40's,the blustery,southwesterly winds making it feel much colder,like it's only 30-35 degrees,at times, overnight.

Tuesday,November 4: Election Day 2014 will be turning mostly cloudy and much cooler/colder than recent days with a high temperature only in the upper 40's to lower 50's.Remaining a bit mild for mid-autumn and very early November,with areas of low clouds and a low temperature dropping to 40-45 degrees,overnight.

Wednesday,November 5: Remaining cloudy,rainy,raw,dank,dreary,and chilly,with a chance for a little rain and a high temperature only in the upper 40's to lower 50's,once again.Remaining cloudy and rainy,but turning colder than recent nights with a chance for a little rain and a low temperature dropping to around 40 degrees,the blustery,biting,northwesterly winds,which could gust past 15-mph, at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only 25-30 degrees,at times,overnight.

Heavy Storms to Expand From New Mexico to Colorado

By , Expert Senior Meteorologist
September 22,2014; 9:38PM,EDT
 
 
Heavy, gusty thunderstorms will affect parts of the central and southern Rockies to the High Plains and western Texas into Monday night.
The storms will bring isolated incidents of flash flooding and wind gusts to 60 mph.
Locally blinding downpours and excessive runoff can slow travel along Interstate-25, I-40 and I-70.
Cities that can be hit by storms and locally heavy rain into Monday night include El Paso, Texas; Santa Fe and Albuquerque, New Mexico; and Denver, Colorado Springs and Pueblo, Colorado.

The stormy pattern is being caused by a disturbance moving eastward from the Rockies, air flowing uphill from the lower Plains and tropical moisture, in part leftover from Odile.
According to AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologist Sarah Glenn, "Unfortunately, storms are forecast to continue across flood-stricken areas of southeastern New Mexico and western portions of Texas, with the most substantial additional rainfall, 1-3 inches, across areas such as El Paso, Roswell and Carlsbad into Monday night."
"Rainfall amounts of anywhere from 6-14 inches across the Pecos River Watershed has continued to cause widespread flooding, leading to evacuations in Pecos, Texas."
While Odile has delivered both flooding rainfall and drought relief to parts Texas and the Southwest, there have been some areas that were largely missed by downpours in recent days.
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Some areas are still running a rainfall deficit, including southeastern Colorado. The rainfall into Tuesday will benefit part of this area. Portions of Wyoming which are in need of rain will be on the receiving end of showers and thunderstorms into Monday evening.
This experimental soil moisture profile taken on Saturday, Sept. 20, 2014, from the University of Washington shows areas where soil moisture is high (green) versus areas where the soil is dry (yellow, orange and red), compared to average.
As the disturbance moves along on Tuesday, it will push the zone of downpours and thunderstorms farther to the south and east.
Locally drenching rain for a time on Tuesday will extend from near Omaha, Nebraska, to Dodge City Kansas and El Paso and Amarillo, Texas. Areas from the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles to southeastern New Mexico will run the risk of isolated flash flooding on Tuesday.

On Social Media
NWS Tucson
NWSTucson
1230 AM: Storms w/ heavy rainfall (1-1.50") will mov NE@15MPH, impacting low areas along HWY 191 N of #Clifton. #azwx pic.twitter.com/T8H6v7E49H
Michael F Ozaki MD
brontyman
@NaphiSoc Re CA flooding: When remnant of hurricane Odile passed through some areas near the Mexico to AZ border got heavy rain
Cassie Nall
CassieNallWx
Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning expected with storms today. Standing water is possible in flood-prone areas. @SNNLocalNews
peter bollini
peter_bollini
So trop. Depression polo is out there & another storm & still today & tomorrow more heavy rain Where u already are flooded in west texas
CyG US
CyG_US
Heavy Storms to Expand From New Mexico to Colorado #NewsAd link CyG-NewsAgent.net/NewsAd.php?url…
 

Fung-wong Floods Philippines, Taiwan

By , Senior Meteorologist
September 22,2014; 9:27PM,EDT
 
 
As Tropical Storm Fung-wong moves into China, weather conditions will improve farther south across much of Taiwan on Tuesday, despite having a few showers and thunderstorms remain.
Fung-wong (called Mario in the Philippines) made landfall in northeastern Luzon Island on Friday (local time) and unleashed torrential rain across the entire island. After flooding the northern Philippines, Fung-wong turned to the north and targeted Taiwan with a deluge of rainfall.
In the Philippines, 11 people are dead as of 6:00 pm Sunday, local time, reports the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council of the Philippines. Two people remain missing.
Among the dead is a two-year-old girl from Quezon City who died from drowning. An infant boy, aged one month, died after being hit by an uprooted tree.
The storm affected more than 870,000 people across the Philippines and as many as 206,000 people are reported to be in 403 evacuation centers during the height of the storm. That includes those in Metro Manila, the capital of the Philippines, as widespread flooding unfolded.
The storm damaged or destroyed more than 2,000 homes across the northern Philippines.
Trapped residents are rescued to safety after heavy monsoon rains spawned by Tropical Storm Fung-wong flooded Marikina city, east of Manila, Philippines, and most parts of the metropolis Friday, Sept. 19, 2014. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez)
As the storm approached late last week, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Jim Andrews warned, "There can be 10-20 inches of rain as a storm total in the hardest-hit locations, most likely southwest Luzon into Baguio. This is the pattern to get a lot of rain in Manila due to a southwest wind."
Since then, weather observations from downtown Manila indicate that 194 millimeters (7.64 inches) of rain fell from late Thursday through Saturday (local time). In nearby Quezon City, rain amounts exceeded 414 millimeters (16 inches). Farther north, Baguio received about 500 millimeters (20 inches) of rain.
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As Fung-wong moved farther north, rainfall across the Philippines diminished while rain across Taiwan increased in intensity.
Through Monday, local time, Pingtung County in southern Taiwan appears to be the hardest-hit area in terms of rainfall. The Taiwan Central Weather Bureau reports that several locations in the county have received over 500 millimeters (20 inches) of rain.
The Central Weather Bureau reported a wind gust to 140 kph (87 mph) in Pengjiayu, a small island just to the north of mainland Taiwan. On the southern tip of the country, winds gusted to 100 kph (61 mph). The South China Morning Post reports that more than 40,000 households in southern and northeastern Taiwan were without power.

Now that Fung-wong is moving north of Taiwan, heavy rain and strong winds have diminished. However, Fung-wong will target eastern China, South Korea and Japan this week as it brings potentially flooding rainfall.
Meteorologists Eric Leister and Adam Douty contributed to this story

On Social Media
Rosemary Church
rosemaryCNN
Severe Tropical Storm Fung-Wong is heading 4 #China. The storm battered the #Philippines & #Taiwan over the weekend @CNN
NASAHurricane
NASAHurricane
NW PACIFIC *Full Update* NASA Sees Tropical Storm Fung-Wong Move Through East China Sea Tropical Storm Fung-Wong... fb.me/70VrCvdUN
 

California Drought May Be Cause for Mt. Shasta Mudslide

By Mark Leberfinger, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
September 22,2014; 9:15PM,EDT
 
 
U.S. Forest Service officials continue to monitor a mudslide that occurred Saturday at Mt. Shasta in northern California.
The mudslide began around 3 p.m. PDT Saturday and continued through the night in Mud Creek Canyon, a Forest Service spokeswoman said in a news release.
The cause of the mudslide is believed to be due to the drought conditions which have left Mt. Shasta's glaciers exposed to the sun's heat.
A mudslide from Mt. Shasta crosses Pilgrim Creek Road in northern California on Sunday, Sept. 21, 2014. (Photo/U.S. Forest Service/Steve Bachmann)
"Pockets of liquid water can be held in place by glaciers; when a portion of that glacier shifts or melts, it can release water down the mountainside. These flows gather debris as they travel, creating potentially dangerous conditions for anyone traveling through the area," Shasta-Trinity National Forest spokeswoman Andrea Capps said in the news release.
Visitors are still being asked to stay away from the Mud Creek area due to unpredictable conditions, according to an update released on Monday by the Forest Service.
The region is currently under extreme drought conditions, according to the Palmer Drought Intensity Index.
No relief is expected this fall to help alleviate the drought conditions, AccuWeather.com meteorologists have said.
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The mudslide closed two roads in the area; Highway 89 remained open.
As debris continues to flow, impacts will also be seen in the lower McCloud River. Sediments from Mud Creek will likely impact water quality and fishing by creating turbidity issues in the river below Lake McCloud, Capps said.
Extreme drought conditions continue for most of California, according to the Palmer Drought Intensity Index. (Photo/NOAA)
No structures were damaged and there were no reported injuries.
A mudslide from Mt. Shasta merges into the McCloud River in northern California on Sunday, Sept. 21, 2014. (Photo/U.S. Forest Service)

On Social Media
Matt Weiser
matt_weiser
Melted glacier causes giant mudslide on Mt. Shasta, closing some roads. sacb.ee/1ylxgWc #cawx #climate #drought
Damon Arthur
damonarthur_RS
National Weather Service reinstates flash flood watch for Mt. Shasta mudslide area north of McCloud. pic.twitter.com/zxPCilhVse
L.A. Times: L.A. Now
LANow
Expert blames Mt. Shasta mudslide on drought, melting glacier: lat.ms/1udmRsV pic.twitter.com/a3cmoo4Cyw
Veronica Rocha
VeronicaRochaLA
California drought: Glacier melts, causing massive mudslide on Mt. Shasta. No injuries reported. fw.to/YQMUqIM
WaterSmart
GetWaterSmart
MT @EI_Water: Huge California mudslide may have been triggered by drought reut.rs/1v9HxPp #cawater
Forest News
EI_Forest
#forest Huge California mudslide may have been triggered by drought: Reuters reut.rs/1v9HxPp California's t... pic.twitter.com/9qVxd9nota

El Paso, Texas Flash Flooding Kills One; Cars Washed Away, Water Rescues

By Jon Erdman
Published: September 22,2014



 
Flash flood warnings were reissued Monday afternoon as a new round of heavy thunderstorms developed over the El Paso, Texas, metropolitan area, where flash floods earlier in the day turned deadly. By Monday night, numerous roads were flooded in the Las Cruces area.
Earlier Monday, a cluster of heavy rain parked over the north side of El Paso and triggered deadly flash flooding. 64-year-old Consance Manzanares drowned Monday after her car was trapped in a canal by flood waters, KVIA reports.
At least two water rescues were performed, according to the El Paso Times. Portions of Hondo Pass, Railroad Drive, and Fairbanks Drive were impassable. Rocks and other debris littered parts of Fairbanks Drive with water reaching up to the wheel wells of at least one vehicle, according to KFOX-TV.  Floodwaters reached the front entrance of El Paso Community College.
A National Weather Service employee measured 5.37 inches of rain in just over four hours over a part of the northeast El Paso metro northwest of Biggs Army Airfield. Incredibly, just about five miles away, El Paso International Airport only picked up around one-quarter inch of rain Monday morning.
This is roughly equal to the city's combined average rainfall from July through September (5.07 inches).
(FORECAST: El Paso, Texas)
New thunderstorms developed over the Franklin Mountains in El Paso, just northwest of downtown, Monday afternoon. The storms prompted the National Weather Service to issue new flash flood warnings at 3 p.m. MDT for parts of El Paso County as well as sections of Dona Ana and Otero counties just over the state line in New Mexico. The warnings were scheduled to expire at 7 p.m.
Flooding also hit Las Cruces, New Mexico, Monday afternoon. Numerous streets were reported flooded, including this one:

Juarez: Flooding Across The Border

Flooding also occurred across the international border in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico.
Local news website Juarez Noticias said a school was surrounded by floodwaters Monday afternoon, trapping students inside. Police responded to the scene after neighbors complained.

Stormy Month for El Paso

Just five days prior to this event, flooding shut down a stretch of Interstate 10 near Piedras Street. The El Paso Fire Department rescued three stranded motorists that evening.
El Paso International Airport picked up 3.02 inches of rain from Sept. 15-18. More than half of that rain total fell on the evening of Sept. 17 alone.
Here are some more photos of the West Texas flooding Monday via social media.

Weather Underground National Forecast for Monday,September 22,2014

By: nationalsummary , 10:14PM,GMT on September 21,2014

Weather Underground Forecast for Monday,September 22,2014

An area of low pressure will move across the Pacific Northwest on Monday, while a cold front will extend across the Gulf Coast and the East Coast.

A low pressure system is forecast to drift north northwestward over the Pacific Northwest on Monday. This system will initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern half of the Pacific Northwest, the Intermountain West and the Desert Southwest. A separate area of low pressure will approach the northwestern corner of the country, bringing showers to western Washington and western Oregon. A ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific will keep conditions mostly clear across California and Nevada.

Meanwhile, an extensive cold front will stretch across the Gulf Coast, the Southeast and the Eastern Seaboard. An onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico will collide with this frontal boundary to trigger isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast and the Southeast. The strongest storms will focus over Florida. A low pressure system along the northern end of the cold front will move northeastward over southeast Canada. Rain will trail this system and linger over the Northeast on Monday.

A large high pressure system will build over the upper Midwest. The Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley and the Mississippi Valley will avoid wet weather on Monday.

This Date in Weather History for September 22,2014 from weatherforyou.com

Weather History
For Monday,September 22,2014
 
 
 
1890 - A severe hailstorm struck Strawberry, AZ. Fives days after the storm hail still lay in drifts 12 to 18 inches deep. (The Weather Channel)
1913 - Des Moines, IA, experienced their earliest freeze of record. (The Weather Channel)
1961 - Hurricane Esther made a near complete circle south of Cape Cod. The hurricane then passed over Cape Cod and hit Maine. Its energy was largely spent over the North Atlantic Ocean, however, heavy rains over Maine resulted in widespread local flooding of cellars, low roads, and underpasses. (David Ludlum)
1983 - Forty-one cities reported record cold temperatures during the morning. Houston, TX, hit 50 degrees, and Williston ND plunged to 19 degrees. (The Weather Channel)
1987 - Hurricane Emily, the first hurricane to roam the Carribean in nearly six years, made landfall over the Dominican Republic late in the day, packing 125 mph winds. Emily killed three persons and caused thirty million dollars damage. A record high of 92 degrees at Miami FL was their fifth in a row. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
1988 - An early morning thunderstorm produced baseball size hail at Plainview, in Hale County TX. Late in the evening more thunderstorms in the Southern High Plains Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Plainview TX and Crosby TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
1989 - Hurricane Hugo quickly lost strength over South Carolina, but still was a tropical storm as it crossed into North Carolina, just west of Charlotte, at about 7 AM. Winds around Charlotte reached 69 mph, with gusts to 99 mph. Eighty percent of the power was knocked out to Charlotte and Mecklenburg County. Property damage in North Carolina was 210 million dollars, and damage to crops was 97 million dollars. The strongest storm surge occurred along the southern coast shortly after midnight, reaching nine feet above sea level at ocean Isle and Sunset Beach. Hugo killed one person and injured fifteen others in North Carolina. Strong northwesterly winds ushered unseasonably cold air into the north central U.S., in time for the official start of autumn, at 8" 20 PM (CDT). Squalls produced light snow in northern Wisconsin. Winds in Wisconsin gusted to 52 mph at Rhinelander. (Storm Data) (The Nati
2005 - For the first time in the historical record, two hurricanes reached category-5 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico in a single season as Hurricane Rita intensified before making landfall (Katrina and Rita).

World Weather Hot Spot for September 22-23,2014 from accuweather.com

Dachen Island,China: Very heavy rain;received over 8 inches of rain Sunday-Monday (September 21-22,2014)

Today's Worst Weather for September 22,2014 from accuweather.com

Roswell,New Mexico: Showers-&-Thunderstorms

WeatherWhys for September 22,2014 from accuweather.com

The equinox occurs when the direct rays of the sun are over the equator. At that exact moment the days and nights are nearly equal across the globe. Autumn officially begins in the Northern Hemisphere at 10:29 p.m. EDT on Monday Sept. 22.

Sunday, September 21, 2014

25th Anniversary of Hurricane Hugo Hitting South Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:11PM,GMT on September 21,2014

On September 21, 1989, Hurricane Hugo began the day as a minimum-strength Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. But as a strong trough of low pressure turned the hurricane to the north and accelerated Hugo to a forward speed of 25 mph, the storm took advantage of low wind shear and warm ocean waters to begin a period of rapid intensification. As darkness fell on the 21st, Hugo had grown to huge Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. Its target: the South Carolina coast near Charleston, at Sullivan's Island. At 11:57 pm on the 21st, Hugo made landfall on Sullivan's Island. It was the strongest hurricane on record to hit South Carolina, and the second strongest hurricane (since reliable records began in 1851) to hit the U.S. East Coast north of Florida. Only Hurricane Hazel of 1954 (Category 4, 140 mph winds) was stronger. With a price tag of $9.7 billion (2010 dollars), Hugo was the most expensive hurricane ever to hit the U.S., until Hurricane Andrew surpassed it in 1992.


Figure 1. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 21, 1989. Hugo had intensified to a formidable Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds.

On Isle of Palms, a barrier island adjacent to Sullivan's Island, the mayor and several police officers were sheltering in a 2-story building which lay at an elevation of ten feet. As related in a story published in the St. Petersburg Times, they heard the following bulletin on the radio at 10:30pm the night Hugo made landfall:

"The National Weather Service has issued a storm surge update. It appears that the storm surge will be greater than anticipated. It is now expected to reach a height of 17 to 21 feet."

"Mom didn't raise an idiot," said the one cop with the most sense, and he convinced the others to get off the island. They left the island by driving at 5 mph through horizontal sheets of rain and hurricane-force wind gusts over the Ben Sawyer Bridge, which connected Sullivan's Island to the mainland. As they crossed onto the bridge, they passed over a large bump--the bridge and road bed were at different levels. Not good. While crossing the bridge, they could feel it swaying and straining, and heard the sound of metal, twisting and grinding and breaking. They made it, but only barely--minutes later, the hurricane tore the center span of the bridge from its connection on both ends, leaving it a twisted ruin in the bay.


Figure 2. The Ben Sawyer Bridge connecting Sullivan's Island to Charleston, South Carolina, after Hurricane Hugo. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

Hugo's storm surge
In McClellanville, on the coast thirty miles northeast of Charleston, between 500 - 1100 people took refuge at the designated shelter for the region, Lincoln High School. Lincoln High is a one-story school, mostly constructed of cinder block, located on the east side of Highway 17, and was believed to be at an altitude of twenty feet. McClellanville is about 4 - 5 miles inland from the open ocean, but lies on the Intracoastal Waterway, so is vulnerable to high storm surges. Near midnight on the 21st, a storm surge of twenty feet poured into Bulls Bay just south of McClellanville, and funneled into the narrow Intracoastal Waterway. Water started pouring into the high school and rose fairly rapidly. Within minutes, people were wading around up to their waists, the water still rising. In the school cafeteria, many refugees gathered on a stage at one end, putting children up on tables. The elevated stage kept them above water; others floated in the water. Another group was in the band room, which had a much lower ceiling than the cafeteria. They had to stand on desks and push out the ceiling tiles for more breathing room, as the water rose within 1 - 2 feet of the ceiling. Fortunately, Hugo's storm surge peaked at that time, at about 16 - 17 feet (Figure 4), and the people sheltering at Lincoln High were spared.


Figure 3. Estimated storm surge (height above ground) as estimated by NOAA's storm surge model, SLOSH. McClellanville (upper right) received a storm surge estimated at 16 - 17 feet.

According to Dr. Stephen Baig, the retired head of the NHC storm surge unit, the back-story is this: To build Lincoln High School, which lies at an altitude of ten feet, the local school board used the same plans that were drawn up for another school that is west of Highway 17, and that IS at 20 feet elevation. Not only the same plans, the same set of working drawings. Those working drawings showed a surveyed elevation of 20 feet above datum (probably NGVD29). Apparently Lincoln High was constructed either without benefit of elevation survey or the plans were not annotated with its site elevation. When the Red Cross inquired as to its utility as an evacuation site, whoever looked at the plans saw the surveyed elevation at 20 feet. That is what the Red Cross published. That is why the school was a designated shelter. Since that near-tragedy, the Red Cross requires a new elevation survey for every potential storm shelter. I think that at the time this was discovered all the designated shelters also were re-surveyed, just to be sure that no similar Lincoln High problems were waiting to happen.

Only one person died from Hugo's storm surge, a woman who sheltered in her mobile home that got struck by the surge. Her death was one of only ten deaths that have occurred due to storm surge in the U.S. in the 35 years between 1969 - 2005 (after the 100+ storm surge deaths due to Hurricane Camille of 1969, and before the 1000+ storm surge deaths due to Hurricane Katrina). This amazingly low death toll can be attributed to four factors:

1) Greater understanding of the storm surge and better storm surge forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, thanks to such tools as the SLOSH storm surge model.

2) The excellent job NWS/NHC/FEMA and state and local Emergency Managers have done educating the public on the potential surge they can expect.

3) The success local government has had making evacuations of low-lying areas work.

4) Luck. The 20+ storm surge deaths on the Bolivar Peninsula in 2008 from Hurricane Ike and the 41 storm surge deaths in New York and New Jersey from Hurricane Sandy show that there are still plenty of stubborn, unlucky, or uneducated people who will die when a significant storm surge hits a low-lying populated coast. To illustrate, I'll present an email sent to me from a resident in the Florida Keys during the Keys evacuation order for Hurricane Ike in 2008: I hate to bother you again, but we live on Marathon in the Florida Keys on the Atlantic side, and my husband says that if we see water coming up from storm surge and have an inch of water in our house, that we can outrun the storm surge in our car. Can you please tell me if there is any way this can possibly be true? P.S., I don't know of anyone who lives down here who is planning on evacuating for Ike. Everyone says they are staying. My response: You are right to be skeptical of your husband's idea. Once the surge begins, it typically rises very quickly. If you wait until the water is an inch high before trying to outrun the surge, the odds are that the surge will rise to over a foot high before you get your car out of the driveway. If the water is a foot high, the typical 10 - 15 mph speed of the storm surge's current has enough force to sweep a car away. The Keys have only one road out, and the storm surge will likely be moving perpendicular to the road, cutting off the only escape route well before the hurricane arrives. One of these days, there are going to be a lot of people who fail to evacuate caught and killed in the Keys by the storm surge from a major hurricane.

Kudos and links
I thank Ken Bass for providing the details on the Lincoln High storm surge near-disaster. Ken has written a very readable book about a fictional Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com has a web page with links to tons of Hurricane Hugo stories. Included are links to YouTube videos of a "Rescue 911" episode that interviewed survivors of the Lincoln High storm surge scare. The show also did a re-creation of the event.

Our Historical storm surge page has SLOSH model storm surge animations of Hurricane Hugo's landafall, as well as of 39 other famous hurricanes.

My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight, recommends this 47-minute video documentary about Women's Stories of Reconstruction after Hurricane Hugo hit McClellanville South Carolina in 1989.

If you've never read my story of flying into Hurricane Hugo, do it. Twenty-five years ago on September 15, 1989, I was the flight director on the first hurricane hunter mission into the hurricane. We intercepted Hurricane Hugo as it approached the Caribbean islands, just before Hugo's destructive rampage through the Caribbean and into South Carolina. The crew of the airplane were the first people to encounter the mighty hurricane--and very nearly became its first victims. The mission remains the most harrowing flight ever conducted by the NOAA hurricane hunters. I served as flight meteorologist on that flight, and feel fortunate indeed to be able to tell the story.

Quiet in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Jumping back to September 21, 2014, it's quiet in the Atlantic, where tropical wave 95L off the coast of Africa remains disorganized. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development near 0%. This wave will bring heavy rain showers to the Cape Verdes Islands on Sunday and Monday.

In the Eastern Pacific, minimal-strength Tropical Storm Polo continues to weaken due to high wind shear as it heads west-northwest out to sea. All watches and warnings have been dropped in Mexico for Polo. A weak area of low pressure (99E) a few hundred miles south of the Guatemala/Mexico border was given 5-day odds of development of 40% by NHC in their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook. Our reliable computer models do not show 99E being a threat to make landfall during the next five days.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Fung-Wong made landfall in southern Taiwan Sunday morning with sustained winds near 55 mph, knocking out power to 40,000 customers. Fung-Wong brushed the northern end of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Friday morning with sustained winds of 45 mph, bringing torrential rains that flooded Manila and killed ten people. The storm is headed north towards a third landfall in Mainland China, which is expected to occur Monday evening.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at the tropics in his Sunday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Weather Underground National Forecast for Sunday,September 21,2014

By: nationalsummary , 10:14PM,GMT on September 20,2014




Weather Underground Forecast for Sunday,September 21,2014

 


An area of low pressure will skim across the Northeast on Sunday, while a coastal system will move across the Eastern Seaboard.

A low pressure system will shift eastward across the Northeast and southeast Canada on Sunday. This system is expected to usher rain and thunderstorms across the upper Midwest, the Great Lakes and portions of New England. A cold frontal boundary associated with this system will extend southwestward. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along this frontal boundary over the middle Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley and the Ohio Valley.

A stationary front will extend across the southeastern corner of the country. A trough of low pressure along the eastern end of the cold front will move north northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard. This system is forecast to produce stormy weather, which will affect parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the New England Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible along the eastern Gulf Coast and Florida.

Meanwhile, an abundance of moisture will linger over southeast New Mexico and Texas. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue to impact the two states. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also develop across the Great Basin and the Intermountain West. A ridge of high pressure will keep conditions mostly clear across the West Coast on Sunday.

This Date in Weather History for September 21,2014 from weatherforyou.com

Weather History
For Sunday,September 21,2014
 
 
 
1894 - A heavy chicken house, sixteen by sixteen feet in area, was picked up by a tornado and wedged between two trees. The hens were found the next day sitting on their eggs in the chicken house, with no windows broken, as though nothing had happened. (The Weather Channel)
1938 - A great hurricane smashed into Long Island and bisected New England causing a massive forest blowdown and widespread flooding. Winds gusted to 186 mph at Blue Hill MA, and a storm surge of nearly thirty feet caused extensive flooding along the coast of Rhode Island. The hurricane killed 600 persons and caused 500 million dollars damage. The hurricane, which lasted twelve days, destroyed 275 million trees. Hardest hit were Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Long Island NY. The ""Long Island Express"" produced gargantuan waves with its 150 mph winds, waves which smashed against the New England shore with such force that earthquake-recording machines on the Pacific coast clearly showed the shock of each wave. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
1954 - The temperature at Deeth, NV, soared from a morning low of 12 degrees to a high of 87 degrees, a record daily warm-up for the state. (The Weather Channel)
1987 - Tropical Storm Emily, which formed in the Carribean the previous afternoon, caused considerable damage to the banana industry of Saint Vincent in the Windward Islands. Unseasonably hot weather continued in Florida and the western U.S. Redding CA and Red Bluff CA, with record highs of 108 degrees, tied for honors as the hot spot in the nation. (The National Weather Summary)
1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds and locally heavy rain in the southwestern U.S. One thunderstorm in west Texas produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Dell City completely destroying an airport hangar. A Cessna 150 aircraft housed within the hangar was flipped over and snapped in two. Thunderstorms produced large hail in east central Utah, while snow blanketed some of the higher elevations of the state. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - Hurricane Hugo slammed into the South Carolina coast about 11 PM, making landfall near Sullivans Island. Hurricane Hugo was directly responsible for thirteen deaths, and indirectly responsible for twenty-two others. A total of 420 persons were injured in the hurricane, and damage was estimated at eight billion dollars, including two billion dollars damage to crops. Sustained winds reached 85 mph at Folly Beach SC, with wind gusts as high was 138 mph. Wind gusts reached 98 mph at Charleston, and 1S09 mph at Shaw AFB. The biggest storm surge occurred in the McClellanville and Bulls Bay area of Charleston County, with a storm surge of 20.2 feet reported at Seewee Bay. Shrimp boats were found one half mile inland at McClellanville. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - Hurricane Hugo strikes South Carolina as a Category 4 hurricane. Hugo cause $7 billion in damage in the US and killing over 30 people.

Cooler Air, Rain to Arrive This Week in Seattle, Portland

By Jordan Root, Meteorologist
September 21,2014; 10:22PM,EDT
 
 
Cooler air will arrive across the Northwest this week, erasing the sizzling heat that settled in the region this past weekend.
In relation to weekend high temperatures, thermometers will drop 10 to 20 degrees this week.
Instead of the mercury rising into the 80s and 90s, folks in Seattle, Washington and Portland, Oregon will be met with low 70s.
By September standards, these temperatures are actually typical for the region. However, it certainly will feel quite cool after the recent warmth that targeted the area.
Portland reached 94 degrees on Saturday, just two degrees shy of the record.

A ridge of high pressure that brought the heat will be shifting to the east through the middle of the week. This will allow a dip in the jet stream to not only bring cooler air into the region, but unsettled weather in the form of clouds and rain.
Showers are expected to arrive by Tuesday afternoon to the Oregon and Washington Coasts and I-5 corridor.
Folks who need to attend to outdoor activities may want to plan for Monday as that will be the best chance for dry weather.

After that, umbrellas and rain jackets will become useful as people head out the door.
The steadiest rain will likely arrive Wednesday, followed by periods of rain and showers through the end of the week.
Thunderstorms could reach as far east as Spokane and as far south as northern California.
According to AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Evan Duffey, the rain is much needed across the region.
RELATED:
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"Although it won't be very heavy, the rain will help dampen the ground across northern California which would help firefighting efforts," said Duffey.
Currently, the Happy Camp and July Complex wildfires are raging across northern California.
"However, it likely won't do much to the extreme and exceptional drought that currently grips much of California," added Duffey.
Several other wildfires that are ongoing in the Sierra Nevada Mountains will not see any rainfall. Gusty winds could actually hinder firefighting efforts during the week.
The Terra/MODIS satellite captured this hi-res image of wildfires burning across California on Saturday, September 20th. Photo/NASA

On Social Media
Adrienne Green ☂
adrienneABC2
Officially hit 84° today at #BWI.. That's 8 degrees ABOVE average! Cooler air arrives tomorrow. Details coming up on @ABC2NEWS at 6:30!
CyG_Seattle
CyG_Seattle
Cooler Air, Rain to Arrive This Week in Seattle, Portland #NewsAd link CyG-NewsAgent.net/NewsAd.php?url…
AccuWeather.com
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Cooler air will hit the Northwest this week, erasing the sizzling heat from this past weekend. Details: ow.ly/BKtaS
4h
 

Fall to Start Cool in Northeast, Hot in West

By Brian Lada, Meteorologist
September 21,2014; 10:21PM,EDT
 
 
Photo and thumbnail courtesy of Thinkstock.
It's shaping up to be a cool start to autumn for many across the Northeast and Midwest with the new season officially starting at 10:29 p.m. EDT on Monday.
People in these regions may need a light coat or sweatshirt when heading out in the morning or late evening as autumnlike conditions move in right on cue for the start of the season.
Highs on Monday over the Midwest and interior Northeast are expected to range from the mid-50s to the mid-60s followed by overnight lows in the 40s.
Some of the normally cooler spots may even have spotty frost on Monday night or early on Tuesday morning.

Sunscreen and sandals will likely be preferred over jeans and jackets by folks across the Deep South as the summer heat continues on Monday.
Despite the changing of the seasons, highs are still expected to top out around 90 F from South Carolina to central Texas on Monday afternoon.
Warm and humid conditions of this nature are not uncommon for the Gulf Coast states during early autumn; however, with highs typically reaching the mid to upper 80s through the end of September.
RELATED:
AccuWeather 2014 Fall Forecast
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On the other side of the country, autumn will greet residents of the West with conditions more common for early summer rather than autumn.
Temperatures are forecast to run as much as 15 degrees above normal across the West, as well as the Canadian Prairies.
The temperature in Calgary, Alberta, may challenge record values on Monday, less than two weeks after being hit with their first snowstorm since spring.

The first day of autumn may turn out to be a bit misleading for what the start of the season will really bring as the heat over the West gradually shifts eastward throughout the week.
Areas of the Northeast where temperatures struggle to climb out of the 50s on Monday will experience temperatures well above 70 F by Friday.
Those looking to experience the beauty of fall without the cooler weather may find the upcoming weekend to be the best weekend this year to head up into the mountains of New England and view the fall foliage.
Typically, the peak color for fall flag in the White and Green Mountains is late September and early October.


On Social Media
deb candis
dee02652
Fall to Start Cool in Northeast, Hot in West (Sent from Headlines)❤️ accuweather.com/en/weather-new…
Rachael Caldwell
racaldwe
Fall TV season starts for me tonight. Checking out Madam Secretary mostly but not totally because I miss the West Wing.
Nayeli Reynosa
Nayeli979
Is it wrong to be excited for the start of fall (autumn). My favorite season because I can wear baggy sweaters plus it is my birthday season
 
 
  • Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Professional Tax and Accounting Sevices LTD
    Well since April the Middle Atlantic has been in a back and forth pattern that has averaged out to normal. Kind of weird. I think late this week sees a warm-up, then early next week a cool down then by Oct 5-15 a period of above normal temps. Then the last part of October will be cool the November turns rainy. Not sure if Nov will be warm or cold. Depends on that El Nino which still has not showed its face yet. While this is 100% guessing on my part I suspect the coldest weather to be in the Upper Midwest/New England while the Middle Atlantic where I live will see above normal precip and variations in temps averaging near to slightly below normal. I think we will see a lot of mixed precip. events as well. I do worry about a bad second severe weather season in the Southeast to the Middle Atlantic.
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
      So far early October is looking to go back and forth from warm to cool. Some Indian Summer weather mixed in with weather more typical for November.
    • Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Professional Tax and Accounting Sevices LTD
      For what its worth the NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook call for warmer than normal temps from Sept 25 to Oct 3. So far this Sept has been about 1.5 degrees above normal so I think the chances of it averaging slightly above normal for Sept. look good. October looks like it starts warm. (Brett Anderson says the second week of Oct will be warm. The question will be if that pattern changes. So my guess is the second half of Oct will be colder than normal but the closer to the coast the milder it will be due to water temps running above average. I think Pastelok said November would be warm and rainy. Not sure if I agree. My best guess is a slightly warmer than normal fall then a relatively seasonably cold winter. I think the worst of the winter is NW of where I live. One thing I know. The grass is getting brown. We need a couple of soaking rainstorms and none are coming this week.
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
      Interesting how Brett is thinking that October will be warm and November will be cold, but Paul is thinking the opposite.
  • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
    Cool in Northeast and Hot in West: Nothing new this year *Sigh*. Oh well, at least the cold weather on Monday will be brief and much of this week will actually feel like early September.
  • Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
    14 months of this same crappy pattern. Wonder how many years it'll last. I'm betting a change in 2022.
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
      I'm betting mid to late 2015.
    • Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
      Doubt it. There are MANY more Polar vortex chunks ready to break off
    • Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
      You're assuming that just because something happened before means it will happen again. Our weather no longer plays by the "rules" of yore
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
      How many months in a row of near to above average temps would the Great Lakes/Northeast area need for you to say that the favorable pattern for the last 2 years is over?

      Is having unprecedented heat the only way for you to be happy and believe that the pattern is over? Yes I agree that the favorable pattern hasn't really changed much since early 2013, but it doesn't mean we won't see sustained warmth at all.

      I gave that point out earlier because history often does tend to repeat itself when it comes to the weather in terms of ENSO phases. Like, I've accurately predicted almost every winter and summer since 2006, so I KNOW that just because 2014 has been a cold year, that doesn't mean every year until 2022 will be cold. The track record method works at least 90% of the time for me when I predict weather.
    • Brent Richardson · Rochester, New York
      Cory Morrison and Grant McGurie, Hi Guys, Looks like it will be warm than average in Rochester NY for next couple of days. Is there any chance we will have brutal winter this year again like we did last year or even worse?
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
      I think the winter will be colder than average in the Northeast and Great Lakes but probably not as cold as last year for most parts.
    • Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
      I say it will be a repeat of last year, only worse.
    • Brent Richardson · Rochester, New York
      Hmm because i checked next 45 days forecast for end of sept and October, it looks to be above average :( Even I checked weather.com and they already have temp outlook for Oct-Dec and whole east coast will be above average temp :(
    • Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
      Accuweather also said this weekend would be sunny & summerlike. It wasn't
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
      Also remember what Cotton Mather has said about patterns often having changes at scheduled times, and that cold mid September periods often lead to warm late September-early October periods (This happened last year too).
    • Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
      The Accuweather team is incompetent. I'm better at forecasting than they are