Saturday, October 25, 2014

Heavy Rain, Strong Winds To Sweep Into the Pacific Northwest This Weekend (FORECAST)

By Chrissy Warrilow
Published: October 25,2014



 
A heavy rain maker has set up in the Pacific Northwest, and it will continue to bring much needed rain and mountain snow through the weekend. With that said, it is also producing strong gusty winds that are downing numerous trees and powerlines.
(MORE: Pacific Northwest Storm Unleashes Powerful Damaging Winds)
The Setup
A large southward dip in the jet stream has developed over the eastern Pacific Ocean and is poised to swing into the West Coast this weekend.
Umbrella Weather Into The Weekend
The first round of rain came ashore Tuesday night through Thursday as a low pressure system and its trailing cold front barrel into the Pacific Coast from Washington to northwest California.
(MORE: Longview, Washington Tornado)
Less rain occurred on Friday, though a band of showers did develop from the coast of Washington through Seattle and into western Montana.
On Saturday, a second low pressure system ushered heavy rain into the Pacific Northwest. This second system brought rain as far south as San Francisco and Sacramento, as well as snow over the Cascades and northern Rockies.
(FORECAST: Seattle | Portland | Medford | Eureka | Redding | San Francisco | Sacramento)
A general 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected from Northern California through coastal Washington through Sunday, with up to 4 to 5 inches possible in a few spots. Thunderstorms may develop in northern California and western Oregon and a few thunderstorms may be severe, with an isolated tornado possible as well.
(MORE: 13 Years of California Drought in 30 Seconds)
Strong winds will also accompany this system and high wind warnings and wind advisories are in effect into early Sunday morning.
(CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES FOR: Washington | Oregon | California | Idaho | Nevada | Utah | Montana | Wyoming)
Gusty winds will bring the risk for power outages, tree damage and difficult driving conditions. Already, there have been numerous reports of downed trees and powerlines throughout the region.
In particular, a 91 mph wind gust was recorded in Mary's Peak, Oregon, near the coast. In Port Orford, Oregon, rescue workers extracted people from their recreational vehicles after trees and powerlines fell on the RVs, resulting in numerous fires throughout an RV park. One person was taken to the hospital due to injuries.
(MORE: Pacific Northwest Storm Unleashes Powerful Damaging Winds)
Too Much of a Good Thing?
Heavy rain over the next few days may not be a welcomed sight in Seattle, which has already received over 36 inches of rain this year, a surplus of more than 11.8 inches.
Going into the weekend, as much as 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain are expected to fall within the inland valleys of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon, with heavier amounts in the coastal ranges.
Such heavy amounts of rain may produce flash flooding and debris flows or mudslides within burn scar areas from recent wildfires. In urban areas, fallen leaves in storm drains may impede the flow of rainwater runoff, leading to minor urban flooding.
Unfortunately, little significant rain will fall in the Golden State except for the far northwest. Generally around 0.25 inch or less is expected along the Interstate 80 corridor from the Bay Area to Sacramento. Generally less than 1 inch of rain is expected in the northern Sacramento Valley.
San Francisco's rainfall total for this year is over four inches below normal, and Sacramento is running about 4.25 inches below normal as well. Further north in California, Mount Shasta is running a deficit of more than 12 inches.
Another low pressure system is expected early next week and may contain the remnants of Hurricane Ana.

Weather Underground National Forecast for Saturday,October 25,2014

By: nationalsummary , 10:00PM,GMT on October 24,2014

Weather Underground Forecast for Saturday,October 25,2014

A low pressure system will affect the Northwest on Saturday, while wet weather will wind down over the Northeast.

A strong low pressure system will move over the West Coast on Saturday. This system will usher heavy rain and thunderstorms over the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms will be possible over northwest California and southeast Oregon. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing dangerous straight line winds, hail and prolonged heavy rain. The heaviest rain will focus over western facing mountain slopes along the coastal range of northern California. Light to moderate showers will also push across central California, Washington, the northern Great Basin and the upper Intermountain West. High elevation snow showers will be possible during the early morning and late evening across the Cascades and the northern Rockies. High pressure over the eastern Pacific will keep conditions mostly clear over the Desert Southwest and the southern Great Basin.

Meanwhile, a norĂ‚’easter will slide northeastward over southeast Canada. Scattered showers will linger over portions of Upstate New York and New England, but should taper off by Saturday afternoon and evening. To the south, an area of low pressure over the Caribbean Sea will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the southern tip of Florida and the Florida Keys. The remainder of the Eastern Seaboard and the Gulf Coast will stay clear of wet weather.

East Faces Cold Halloween Storm; Warmth in West

October 25,2014; 11:01PM,EDT
 
 
Bone-chilling air, rain and even some snow will impact the Great Lakes and Northeast this Halloween, while warmth prevails in the Southwest.

Chilly, Damp and Snowy for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
Highs over the Northeast will be 5-10 degrees below average with AccuWeather.com RealFeel® temperatures in the middle 40s to low 50s along the East Coast and mid-Atlantic and the 30s over the Interior Northeast as trick-or-treaters venture out Friday evening.
A strong area of high pressure moving down from Canada will bring a sharp drop in temperatures by the end of next week, but a developing storm may threaten to bring rain and even snow to parts of the region just in time for trick-or-treating.
According to AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Andy Mussoline, "Rain showers could be seen along the I-95 corridor while the interior Northeast could see some wet snowflakes mixing in."
Anyone traveling Friday night should take caution as some roads may be slippery. Trick-or-treaters should consider bringing a sweatshirt or jacket.
While it is certain that chilly air will be in place, there is uncertainty of the timing of a storm system developing off of the mid-Atlantic coast. Be sure to stay tuned to AccuWeather.com for further updates on this storm.
Drier and Cooler for the Southeast
Temperatures will fall to more seasonable values over most of the Southeast while a few rain showers may impact trick-or treaters over central and South Florida.
Warm air during the middle of the week will come to an end as a cold front pushes through the Southeastern states for the end of next week. The front is forecast to move through Florida during the day with a few rain showers.
With the uncertainty of the timing of a storm system off the mid-Atlantic coast, a few showers may impact portions of Tennessee and North Carolina. The remainder of the Southeast is expected to be dry.
RELATED:
Six Pumpkin Festivals Across the US
Ten Best Halloween Celebrations in the US
Ten Best US Train Trips to Take This Fall


Cold, Areas of Snow Over the Midwest
Bitterly cold air is expected across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with AccuWeather.com RealFeel® temperatures in the middle 20s to lower 30s with the potential for snow showers.
A strong area of high pressure will come down from Canada and bring very cold air to portions of the Midwest for the end of next week.
Highs over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley area will run 10-15 degrees below average for the end of October. Elsewhere, temperatures will be seasonable for this time of year.
With the uncertainty of the timing of a storm system off the mid-Atlantic coast, a few rain and snow showers may be seen Friday evening over portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. There may be some slick spots for anyone traveling.
Warmth to Prevail in the Southwest
The Southwest will benefit from some of the nicest weather across the entire country for Halloween. High pressure will be in control over the Southwestern states bringing in warm air and dry conditions. Highs on Friday will run between 5-15 degrees above average for the end of October.
Rain Lingers Over Portions of the West
A storm system will move towards the West Coast where rain showers are expected to impact portions of Idaho, Washington, Oregon and California.
High pressure will bring pleasant conditions for trick-or-treaters over the Rockies with high temperatures near average for this time of year.
This story was authored by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Brett Rathbun.

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Cold front moving east tonight but rain should stay in West MT. Find out when we will see rain at 10PM #mtwx -Ross pic.twitter.com/CVZP0Cmbtj
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Dark years, brought endless rain, Out in the cold I lost my way. But storms won't last, they clear the air,
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NYC: Warmup to Follow Rain-Free Weekend

By , Expert Senior Meteorologist
October 25,2014; 10:54PM,EDT
 
 
A rain-free weekend is in store for the New York City area, ahead of a surge of warmth for the middle part of next week.
Enough sunshine is in store this weekend for leaf peepers to boost daytime temperatures into the 60s.
Winds will kick up on Sunday as a disturbance with spotty showers passes by to the north. Winds on Sunday can gust to 35 mph, sending fallen leaves rushing down city streets and rustling through yards in the suburbs.
RELATED:
Detailed New York City Forecast
New York City Interactive Weather Radar
AccuWeather.com MinuteCast™ for New York City

AccuWeather RealFeel® temperatures will be in the 50s much of the day on Sunday for people spending time outdoors, such as heading to East Rutherford, New Jersey, for the NFL game between the Bills and the Jets.
Warmth building over the Central states this weekend will surge northeastward next week.

Temperatures will make a run at 70 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday.
A storm system forecast to develop nearby may truncate the warmth by way of clouds and showers during the middle and latter part of the week, ahead of Halloween.

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AccuFan #Weather Photo of the Day: Canal Reflections In NJ by "elizabethbran" 10/19 http://ow.ly/D6z..
 

India to Yemen on Alert for Tropical Cyclone Nilofar

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist
October 25,2014; 10:53PM,EDT
 
 
An area of low pressure over the Arabian Sea has become better organized and is now Tropical Cyclone Nilofar.
A slow drift northwestward is expected through the weekend keeping the cyclone over warm ocean waters and relatively low wind shear.
These conditions will promote further strengthening, and the cyclone will likely reach the equivalent of a strong tropical storm or hurricane by early next week.
There are a couple of scenarios for where the developing cyclone will slam onshore with damaging winds, flooding rain and dangerously rough seas next week.

One possibility is that the cyclone would take more of a westward track, causing it to threaten eastern Yemen or Oman by Tuesday into Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding appears to be the greatest concern; however, coastal areas could be battered by damaging winds depending on how strong the cyclone becomes.
After a possible landfall in Oman, the storm may be pulled northeastward, crossing back over the Arabian Sea and bringing potentially heavy rainfall to parts of Pakistan and northwestern India later next week.
If the storm continues northwest but remains over the Arabian Sea early next week, interaction with a weak dip in the jet stream to the north will continue to pull the cyclone north to northeast with an eventual landfall in Pakistan or northwestern India as a significant cyclone capable of producing damaging winds, flooding and mudslides.
Since several factors will determine the exact track of Nilofar, anyone with interests in the southern Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan or northwestern India should monitor this situation closely in the coming days.

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lachainemeteo
India to Yemen on Alert for Tropical Cyclone Nilofar - Accu#Weather.com : bit.ly/12DrWzg
IndianSeraph
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Forecasts of weather: tropical cyclone in #India &ends up affectingArabian Sea area Muscat, Oman via @ aidbenjamin pic.twitter.com/s3mgqANPCT
22h
 

Flood Risk Centers on Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria Into Saturday

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist
October 25,2014; 10:52PM,EDT
 
 
After slamming areas from the United Kingdom and Ireland into central Europe with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall earlier this week, a powerful storm storm system containing the remnants of former Hurricane Gonzalo will now target southeast Europe with flooding rainfall.
Rainfall from Tuesday night into Wednesday totaled 50-100 millimeters (2-4 inches) from southern Austria and western Hungary into Slovenia and northern Croatia.
Flooding of homes and streets was reported in Slovenia, especially around the capital of Ljubljana where 137 millimeters (5.39 inches) of rain fell in under six hours.
Wednesday night into Thursday, the heaviest rain fell across southwestern Romania, Serbia, Kosovo and Montenegro. While rainfall averaged 25-50 millimeters (1-2 inches), some areas received as much as 100 millimeters (4 inches).

The soaking rain has shifted farther south and east from Greece to western Turkey and Bulgaria where it will continue into Sunday. The rain will then continue to wet northern Turkey early next week.
Rainfall will average 25-75 millimeters (1-3 inches) with localized amounts up to 150 millimeters (6 inches), sparking flooding concerns. The area at greatest risk for the higher amounts and flooding lies from northeastern Greece to northwestern Turkey and neighboring parts of Bulgaria.
RELATED:
Europe Weather Center
INFOGRAPHIC: Gonzalo's Swath of Damage From Bermuda to Europe
RAW VIDEO: Gonzalo's Strong Winds Stop a Raging UK Waterfall

While flooding will be the biggest concern for the lower elevations, accumulating snow will fall at elevations above 1,500 meters (5,000 feet). This will be the first accumulating snowfall of the season for these areas. The same storm system brought heavy snow and blizzard conditions to parts of the Alps from France and Switzerland.
The storm will weaken by early next week with only a bit of rain lingering across parts of Turkey and Greece on Monday and Tuesday

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A Few Showers to San Francisco for World Series Game Four

By Brian Lada, Meteorologist
October 25,2014; 10:46PM,EDT

Those headed to Game 5 of the World Series Sunday will see drier weather make a return for the second half of the weekend as the system responsible for the rain shifts to the north and west.
It will be breezy during the afternoon hours and during Game 5 of the World Series between the Kansas City Royals and the San Francisco Giants.

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Detailed San Francisco Forecast
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These dry conditions will continue into the majority of the upcoming work week.

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Today's Worst Weather for October 25,2014 from accuweather.com

Cougar Mountain,Washington: Rain

National Temperature and Rainfall Extremes for October 25,2014 from accuweather.com

As of 11:15PM,EDT/8:15PM,PDT



Daily U.S. Extremes

past 24 hours

  Extreme Location
High 98° Death Valley, CA
Low 18° Angel Fire, NM
Precip 1.23" Mount Shasta, CA


Friday, October 24, 2014

New York City metro-area forecast for October 24-December 7,2014 from accuweather.com

Here's the 45-day weather forecast for the New York City metro-area for the period of the last 8 days of October,all of November,and the first week of December (October 24-December 7),2014 from accuweather.com









Tonight,October 24-25: Becoming mainly clear and cooler/colder than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees,overnight.As of 3:15AM,EDT,October 25,it's mostly clear and in the middle 40's,with 85% humidity,in White Plains,NY,and it's 54 degrees and mostly clear,with 50% humidity,in New York City.

Tomorrow,October 25: Turning sunny to partly cloudy,and warmer than recent days with a high temperature in the middle and upper 60's.

Tomorrow night,October 25-26: Remaining partly cloudy and unseasonably mild for very late October and mid-autumn,with a low temperature dropping to the upper 40's to lower 50's,overnight.

Sunday,October 26: Turning windy,but remaining mild with sunshine mixing with clouds and a high temperature of 60-65 degrees.Becoming clear and seasonably chilly for mid-autumn with a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 40's,overnight.

Monday,October 27: Remaining mild and delightful with abundant sunshine,and a high temperature of 60-65 degrees,once again.Becoming partly cloudy and not as chilly,with a low temperature dropping to around 50 degrees,overnight.

Tuesday,October 28: Turning much warmer,as it turns unseasonably warm for the end of October with a mix of sunshine and patchy clouds and a near record high temperature of 70-75 degrees.Becoming mostly cloudy,warm,and balmy for mid-autumn,with a low temperature dropping to 55-60 degrees,overnight.

Wednesday,October 29: Remaining unseasonably warm and balmy for the end of October,with a blend of clouds and sun and a chance for an afternoon rain shower and a near record high temperature in the upper 60's to lower and middle 70's.Remaining partly cloudy and unseasonably mild,but not as warm with a low temperature dropping to the upper 40's to lower 50's,overnight.

Thursday,October 30: Turning much cooler than recent days,as it turns seasonably cool for mid-autumn with some sun and a high temperature only in the upper 50's to lower 60's.Becoming partly cloudy and cooler than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees, overnight.

Friday,October 31: Halloween 2014 will be turning mostly sunny and mild with a high temperature of 60-65 degrees,perfect weather for trick-or-treating by this evening.Turning much colder than recent nights with patchy clouds and a low temperature dropping to 35-40 degrees,the blustery,biting, northwesterly winds,which could gust up to 25-mph,at times,making it feel even colder,like it's only 25-30 degrees,at times,overnight.

Saturday,November 1: November of 2014 begins turning mainly cloudy,windy,and much colder than recent days,as it turns raw and unseasonably chilly for mid-autumn,with a high temperature only in the upper 40's to lower 50's,the blustery,gusty,near hurricane-force winds,which could gust up to 70-mph,causing widespread damage and power-outages,making it feel raw and nasty,like it's only 35-40 degrees,at times.Becoming clear to partly cloudy and cold with a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 30's,overnight.

Sunday,November 2: Becoming partly sunny early,followed by clouds breaking for some afternoon sunshine,and a high temperature only in the upper 40's to lower 50's,once again.Not as cold,nor as windy,with patchy clouds and a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower 40's,overnight.

Monday,November 3: Turning mostly sunny and much warmer with a high temperature in the upper 50's to lower 60's.Becoming clear and warmer than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees,overnight.

Tuesday,November 4: Election Day 2014 will be turning partly sunny and unseasonably mild to warm,once again,this time for very early November,with a near record high temperature of 65-70 degrees.Becoming cloudy,but remaining mild and balmy for mid-autumn,with a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees,once again,overnight.

Wednesday,November 5: Becoming cloudy,but remaining unseasonably warm for mid-autumn and very early November,with a near record high temperature of 65-70 degrees,once again.Remaining cloudy,but turning rainy and much colder than recent nights with a chance for a couple of late-night rain showers and a low temperature plunging to 35-40 degrees,the blustery,biting,southwesterly winds,which could gust past 25-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only 25-30 degrees,at times,overnight.

Thursday,November 6: Not as warm as recent days,with variable cloudiness and a chance for some morning rain showers followed by some spotty afternoon rain showers and a high temperature in the upper 50's to lower 60's.Becoming clear and seasonably cold for early November,with a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 30's,overnight.

Friday,November 7: Turning colder than recent days with increasing cloudiness,and a high temperature in the lower and middle 50's.Becoming partly cloudy and very cold for early November, with a low temperature dropping to 30-35 degrees,overnight.

Saturday,November 8: Remaining seasonably cool for early November and mid-autumn,with times of clouds and sun and a high temperature of just 50-55 degrees.Remaining partly cloudy and cold with a low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 30's,overnight.

Sunday,November 9: Remaining seasonably cool with clouds breaking for some sun and a high temperature of 50-55 degrees,once again.Becoming clear,but remaining cold with a low temperature dropping to the middle 30's,once again,overnight.

Monday,November 10: Turning even cooler despite ample sunshine,with a high temperature only around 50 degrees.Becoming mainly clear,but remaining very cold for mid-to-late autumn,with a low temperature dropping to 30-35 degrees,overnight.

Tuesday,November 11: Veteran's Day 2014 will be unseasonably chilly with early sun followed by clouds and a high temperature of just 45-50 degrees.Remaining very cold with patchy clouds and a low temperature dropping to 30-35 degrees,once again,overnight.

Wednesday,November 12: Remaining rather cloudy and chilly with a high temperature of 45-50 degrees,once again.Remaining clear and very cold for early-to-mid November,with a low temperature dropping,for the third straight night,down to 30-35 degrees,overnight.

Thursday,November 13: Becoming sunny,but remaining rather chilly for early-to-mid November with a high temperature,for the third straight day,of just 45-50 degrees.Remaining clear and very cold with a low temperature dropping,for the fourth straight night,down to 30-35 degrees,overnight.

Friday,November 14: Remaining sunny,but chilly,with a high temperature,for the fourth straight day,of 45-50 degrees.Remaining clear,but turning even colder,like it's only in the upper 20's to lower 30's,overnight.

Saturday,November 15: Becoming partly sunny and a bit milder with a high temperature in the upper 40's to lower 50's.Turning cloudy,rainy,even wintry,but not as cold as recent nights,with a spotty rain or snow shower possible a low temperature dropping to 35-40 degrees,overnight.

Sunday,November 16: Remaining partly sunny,but not as mild,and turning breezy,with a high temperature of 45-50 degrees,the blustery,biting,northerly winds,which could gust up to 25-mph,at times,making it feel even colder,like it's only 35-40 degrees,at times.Becoming clear and very cold with a low temperature dropping to the upper 20's to lower 30's,the blustery,biting,nippy, northeasterly winds,which could gust past 25-mph,at times,making it feel bitterly cold to frigid for mid-November and late autumn,like it's only in the MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ABOVE ZERO,at times,overnight.

Monday,November 17: Becoming mostly sunny and chilly with a high temperature only in the middle and upper 40's.Remaining seasonably cold with increasing cloudiness and a low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 30's,overnight.

Tuesday,November 18: Turning cloudy,rainy,and much warmer than recent days as it turns unseasonably mild for mid-to-late November with periods of rain and a high temperature of 55-60 degrees.Becoming cloudy,rainy,and much warmer than recent nights with periods of rain and a low temperature dropping to 40-45 degrees,the blustery,biting,southwesterly winds,which could gust past 25-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the upper 20's to lower 30's,at times, overnight.

Wednesday,November 19: Remaining cloudy,rainy,and windy,but turning much colder,with periods of rain and a high temperature of 45-50 degrees,the blustery,biting,northeasterly winds,which could gust past 40-mph,at times,causing scattered damage and power-outages,making it feel much colder, like it's only 30-35 degrees,at times.Remaining cloudy,and rainy,but turning wintry and much colder with evening rain followed by some late-night freezing rain/ice and sleet mixing in,and a low temperature dropping to around 30 degrees,the blustery,biting,northwesterly winds,which could gust up to 45-mph,causing some damage and power-outages,making it feel brutally cold to frigid, especially in spots that lose power,like it's only in the UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO,at times,overnight.

Thursday,November 20: Remaining cloudy,rainy,raw and nasty,with low clouds and a bit of rain and a high temperature only in the middle 40's,the blustery,biting,westerly winds,which could gust up to 35-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the upper 20's to lower 30's,at times.Remaining windy and quite cold with areas of low clouds and a low temperature dropping to around 30 degrees,once again,the blustery,biting,westerly winds,which could gust up to 40-mph,at times,making it feel markedly colder,like it's only around 10 degrees above zero,at times,overnight.

Friday,November 21: Remaining rather cold for late November and late autumn with a mix of sun and some clouds and a high temperature of just 40-45 degrees,the blustery,biting,northwesterly winds,which could still gust up to 40-mph,at times,making it feel even colder,like it's only in the upper 20's to lower 30's,at times,once again.Remaining clear to partly cloudy and windy,with a low temperature dropping,for the third straight night,down to around 30 degrees,the blustery,biting, northwesterly winds,which could STILL gust up to 30-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only around 20 degrees,at times,overnight.

Saturday,November 22: Turning mostly sunny,but remaining unseasonably cold for very late November and late autumn,with a high temperature of just 40-45 degrees,once again.Remaining very cold with patchy clouds and a low temperature dropping to the upper 20's to lower and middle 30's,overnight.

Sunday,November 23: Turning cloudy,rainy,and much warmer than recent days,as it turns unseasonably mild YET AGAIN,this time for very late November and late autumn,with periods of rain and a high temperature in the middle 50's.Remaining cloudy and rainy,but turning much warmer than recent nights,with periods of rain and a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower 40's,the blustery,biting,southeasterly winds,which could gust past 35-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only 20-25 degrees,at times,overnight.

Monday,November 24: Remaining cloudy,rainy,and unseasonably mild for very late November and late autumn,with morning rain,heavy at times,followed by a spotty afternoon rain shower and a high temperature in the middle and upper 50's.Turning partly cloudy and much colder,with a low temperature dropping to the upper 20's to lower 30's,the blustery,biting,northwesterly winds,which could gust up to 30-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the MIDDLE TEENS ABOVE ZERO,at times,overnight.

Tuesday,November 25: Turning mostly sunny and much colder than recent days with a high temperature of just 40-45 degrees.Becoming clear and very cold for very late November,with a low temperature dropping to 25-30 degrees,the blustery,biting,northwesterly winds,which could gust up to 30-mph,at times,making it feel bitterly cold to frigid,like it's only in the UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO,at times,overnight.

Wednesday,November 26: Remaining sunny and cold with a high temperature only in the upper 30's to lower 40's.Remaining mainly clear and very cold with a low temperature dropping to 25-30 degrees,once again,overnight.

Thursday,November 27: Thanksgiving Day 2014 will be remaining mostly sunny and chilly to cold with a high temperature of 40-45 degrees.Becoming partly cloudy and warmer than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to 35-40 degrees,overnight.

Friday,November 28: Black Friday 2014 will be turning cloudy,rainy,and warmer than recent days with a chance for a couple of morning rain showers and a high temperature of 50-55 degrees.Remaining mostly cloudy,but not as cold,with a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower 40's,overnight.

Saturday,November 29: Remaining mostly cloudy and unseasonably mild for the end of November, with a high temperature in the lower and middle 50's.Remaining mostly cloudy and unseasonably mild with a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower 40's,once again,overnight.

Sunday,November 30: November of 2014 ends remaining mostly cloudy and unseasonably mild,but turning rainy with a chance for a rain shower and a high temperature in the lower and middle 50's, once again.Remaining mostly cloudy and mild for very late autumn with a low temperature dropping,for the third straight night,down to the upper 30's to lower 40's,overnight.

Monday,December 1: December of 2014 begins remaining mostly cloudy and unseasonably mild with a high temperature in the middle 50's.Remaining cloudy,but turning rainy,even stormy,and windy,with considerable cloudiness and a chance for some rain and even a rare,late autumn thunderstorm possible and a low temperature dropping to 35-40 degrees,the blustery,biting, southwesterly winds,which could gust up to 40-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the upper teens to lower 20's,at times,overnight.

Tuesday,December 2: Remaining cloudy,windy,rainy,unseasonably mild and stormy for the end of autumn and the beginning of December,with a scattered morning shower or thunderstorm and a high temperature in the lower and middle 50's.Remaining windy and cold,but not too terribly so for the end of autumn,and the beginning of December,with patchy clouds and a low temperature dropping to 35-40 degrees,once again,the blustery,biting,southwesterly winds,which could gust up to 40-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the upper teens to lower 20's,at times,once again, overnight.

Wednesday,December 3: Turning mostly sunny and much colder than recent days with a high temperature of just 40-45 degrees,the blustery,biting,southwesterly winds,which could gust past 30-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only 30-35 degrees,at times.Becoming mainly clear and colder than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to the upper 20's to lower 30's, the blustery,biting,westerly winds,which could gust up to 30-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ABOVE ZERO,at times,overnight.

Thursday,December 4: Turning partly sunny and cold with a high temperature only around 40 degrees,the blustery,biting,westerly winds,which could gust up to 30-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the middle and upper 20's,at times.Becoming clear and very cold,with a low temperature dropping to 25-30 degrees,the blustery,biting,northwesterly winds,which could gust up to 25-mph,at times,making it feel even colder,like it's only 15-20 degrees,at times,overnight.

Friday,December 5: Becoming mostly sunny,but remaining unseasonably cold for very early December and the end of autumn,with a high temperature of just 35-40 degrees.Remaining mainly clear and seasonably cold for the end of autumn,with a low temperature dropping to 25-30 degrees, once again,overnight.

Saturday,December 6: Remaining cold with a mix of sun and some clouds,and a high temperature of just 35-40 degrees,once again.Remaining partly cloudy and seasonably cold for early December,with a low temperature dropping to around 30 degrees,the blustery,biting,northwesterly winds,which could gust up to 30-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only 10-15 degrees above zero,at times,overnight.

Sunday,December 7: Remaining sunny and cold with a high temperature,for the third straight day of just 35-40 degrees.Remaining mainly clear and seasonably cold with a low temperature dropping to around 30 degrees,once again,overnight.

Tropical Update: Watching the Western Caribbean, Eastern Pacific, and Arabian Sea

Stu Ostro
Published: October 24,2014



 
- Arabian Sea system organizing and likely to strengthen and head toward land by early next week
- Remnants of Tropical Storm Nine fighting atmospheric conditions hostile to it, yet being pesky in western Caribbean
- System which includes remnants of Gonzalo causing flooding in southeast Europe
- Ana still on its way to become non-tropical, and combine with another system and head toward British Columbia and the U.S. Pac NW early next week
- Still looking at eventual potential development in east Pac near Mexico

WESTERN CARIBBEAN, FLORIDA

The disturbance which includes remnant low pressure from Tropical Depression Nine is peskily hanging on in the western Caribbean.
It's going to be fighting upper-level winds which are not conducive to development; however if it hangs around long enough, and coalesces a bit south of where those winds are strongest, it could have a small window within which to try to make a comeback, and NHC has introduced it into their tropical weather outlook and even nudged the percentages up a smidgen.
Meanwhile, before the northern part of the whole system finally exits, there's also a pesky non-tropical low pressure center hanging on near Florida today and swirling bands of rain onshore.
That low will accelerate away and pass not far from Bermuda this weekend.

CENTRAL PACIFIC

Tropical Storm Ana has tightened up and re-strengthened. Models differ as to whether it stays as a separate entity or gets absorbed by the system to its north, but either way an energetic and wet storm will be heading into British Columbia and the U.S. Pac NW by Monday night and Tuesday.

EASTERN PACIFIC

A relatively large difference between the 2-day and 5-day probability of development (0% vs. 60%), owing to its current lack of much going on but models consistently predicting eventual development.
Models have it lurking near the coast for many days, neither moving out to sea or quickly coming inland.

ELSEWHERE

Arabian Sea
This system, Invest 90A (A for Arabian Sea), is becoming better organized, and the India Meteorological Department (official agency for tropical cyclones in that part of the world) is giving it a high probability of becoming at least a tropical depression.
Models are consistent in predicting it to further develop and become the equivalent strength of a tropical storm and maybe hurricane/typhoon.
Model track forecasts have been erratic.  Latest runs are not toward India, and instead to Oman or Yemen by Tuesday-ish.  With the steering flow players being a little tricky, we'll watch future runs to see if there are any additional significant shifts.Landfalls in that region are not unprecedented, but not frequent, and according to a map of historical tracks, particularly uncommon in southern Oman and Yemen.
Energy-producing infrastructure info/maps:  Oman  Yemen Europe The system which includes ex-Gonzalo is now part of a massive cutoff (area of low pressure aloft cut off from the jet stream) that is producing impacts in southeast Europe including reports of flooding in Athens, Greece.  As a strong ridge of high pressure builds to the north (red on the model forecast below of pressures aloft on Monday), the system is getting blocked from moving much anytime soon. Details of the rain/snow pattern will evolve and with cutoffs typically can become erratic, but additional heavy precip is expected in and around the Balkans.

REAL-TIME UPDATES

Our live wall below has the latest updates from our hurricane experts and from coastal National Weather Service offices. No need to refresh, the latest updates will appear at the top of the wall. Time stamps on each post are in Eastern U.S. time.

Invest 94L in Western Caribbean Little Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48PM,GMT on October 24,2014








The remains of Tropical Depression Nine, which dissipated over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night, were moving offshore of Belize into the Western Caribbean on Friday morning. This disturbance is being labeled Invest 94L by NHC. Belize radar and satellite loops show that 94L has only a few poorly-organized clusters of heavy thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the adjacent waters. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis were predicting development of 94L in their Friday morning runs. A trough of low pressure connected to the large Nor'easter affecting the Northeast U.S. is bringing high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots to the Western Caribbean and is injecting dry air, which is discouraging development. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model indicates that these hostile conditions will persist into early next week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10%. If development does occur, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would be most at risk of receiving impacts from the storm.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 94L in the Western Caribbean.

Eastern Pacific disturbance may develop
An area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific a few hundred miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala border has changed little since Thursday, but has the potential to develop early next week. Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis all develop the system by early next week, and in their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 50%, respectively. The storm's heaviest rains will likely remain offshore over the next five days.


Figure 2. VIIRS satellite image of Invest 90A in the Arabian Sea on Thursday, October 23, 2014. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Arabian Sea disturbance may develop
In the Arabian Sea between India and Africa, an area of disturbed weather (Invest 90A) is growing more organized, and our top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and European models, have been consistently predicting in recent runs that this disturbance will develop into a significant tropical cyclone by early next week. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives the disturbance a medium chance of developing by Saturday. Conditions are favorable for development, with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, excellent upper-level outflow, and very warm ocean temperatures of 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F.) The storm will head slowly northwestwards, and the 00Z Friday runs of the GFS and European models predicted a landfall in Oman near 00 UTC Wednesday, October 29.


Video 1. New surveillance camera video released on October 23, 2014, of Hurricane Odile in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, on September 14, 2014, as violent winds in the back eyewall destroyed the hotel lobby where the iCyclone chase team was sheltering.

Jeff Masters

Weather Underground National Forecast for Friday,October 24,2014

By: nationalsummary , 10:00PM,GMT on October 23,2014

Weather Underground Forecast for Friday,October 24,2014

A nor’easter will continue to affect the Northeast on Friday, while an area of low pressure will move across the Northwest.

A coastal low pressure system will move slowly northeastward along the coast of New England. This system will continue to usher rain and thunderstorms across much of New England on Friday. By the late evening, wet weather will wind down as this system makes its way over southeast Canada. To the south, showers and thunderstorms will persist across the southern tier of Florida and the Florida Keys as a low pressure system shifts across the western Caribbean Sea. High pressure will keep conditions clear across the remainder of the Eastern Seaboard.

Meanwhile, a cold front will diminish as it slides eastward over the upper Midwest. Early morning showers will be possible over Wisconsin, Illinois and northwest Indiana.

To the west, an area of low pressure will impact the northwestern corner of the country. An onshore flow from the Pacific will bring moderate to heavy rain to the Cascades and the coastal ranges of northern California. Light to moderate showers will also develop over the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Basin and the upper Intermountain West. Early morning and late evening snow showers will be confined to the highest elevations of the northern Rockies. A ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific will bring warm, dry weather to the Desert Southwest on Friday.

This Date in Weather History for October 25,2014 from weatherforyou.com

Weather History
For Saturday,October 25,2014
 
 
 
1921 - A hurricane with 100 mph winds hit Tampa, FL, causing several million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)
1977 - Dutch Harbor in Alaska reported a barometric pressure reading of 27.31 inches (925 millibars) to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel)
1981 - A northbound tornado caused two million dollars damage to Bountstown, FL, in less than five minutes. Fortunately no deaths occurred along its six mile path, which was 30 to 100 yards in width. Radar at Apalachicola had no indication of a tornado or severe weather. (The Weather Channel)
1987 - A storm system moving across the Saint Lawrence Valley produced 40 to 50 mph winds east of Lake Ontario. High winds downed some trees around Watertown NY, and produced waves seven feet high between Henderson Harbor and Alexandria Bay. Mason City IA and Waterloo IA tied for honors as cold spot in the nation with record lows for the date of 19 degrees. Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma and northern Texas produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 65 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - Severe thunderstorms erupted over northeastern Texas during the late evening producing softball size hail at Newcastle and Jonesboro. Low pressure over James Bay in Canada continued to produced showers and gale force winds in the Great Lakes Region. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - Low pressure over Nevada produced high winds in the southwestern U.S., and spread heavy snow into Utah. Winds gusted to 63 mph at the Mojave Airport in southern California. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to 12 inches at Snowbird, with 11 inches at Alta. "Indian Summer" type weather continued in the central and eastern U.S. Twenty cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 77 degrees at Alpena MI and 81 degrees at Saint Cloud MN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

This Date in Weather History for October 24,2014 from weatherforyou.com

Weather History
For Friday,October 24,2014
 
 
 
1785 - A four day rain swelled the Merrimack River in New Hampshire and Massachusetts to the greatest height of record causing extensive damage to bridges and mills. (David Ludlum)
1878 - A hurricane produced widespread damage across North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. At Philadelphia PA, the hurricane was the worst of record. (David Ludlum)
1937 - A snow squall in Buffalo NY tied up traffic in six inches of slush. (David Ludlum)
1947 - The Bar Harbor holocaust occurred in Maine when forest fires consumed homes and a medical research institute. The fires claimed 17 lives, and caused thirty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)
1951 - Sacramento, CA, reported a barometric pressure of 29.42 inches, to establish a record for October. (The Weather Channel)
1969 - Unseasonably cold air gripped the northeastern U.S. Lows of 10 degrees at Concord, NH, and 6 degrees at Albany NY established October records. (The Weather Channel)
1987 - Snow fell across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin overnight, with five inches reported at Poplar Lake MN and Gunflint Trail MN. Thunderstorm rains caused flash flooding in south central Arizona, with street flooding reported around Las Vegas NV. Strong northwesterly winds gusting to 50 mph downed some trees and power lines in western Pennsylvania and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - Strong winds circulating around a deep low pressure centered produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region, with six inches reported at Ironwood MI. Wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at State College PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - A storm in the western U.S. produced up to three feet of snow in the mountains around Lake Tahoe, with 21 inches reported at Donner Summit. Thunderstorms in northern California produced 3.36 inches of rain at Redding to establish a 24 hour record for October, and bring their rainfall total for the month to a record 5.11 inches. Chiefly "Indian Summer" type weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s. Record highs included 74 degrees at International Falls MN, and 86 degrees at Yankton SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
2005 - Hurricane Wilma reached the U.S. coastline near Everglades City in Florida with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. The hurricane accelerated across south Florida and the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area, exiting the coast later the same day. There were 10 fatalities in Florida, and nearly 6 million people lost power, the most widespread power outage in Florida history. Preliminary estimates of insured losses in Florida were over $6 billion, while uninsured losses were over $12 billion.