Friday, September 4, 2015

Ignacio Becomes Post-Tropical, Remnant May Be Alaska Bound

September 4,2015

Current Status and Forecast:

  • Ignacio has transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone in the north-central Pacific Ocean.
  • Ignacio's contribution to Hawaii's high surf along north-facing shores is diminishing.
  • Swells from Ignacio pushed sand and other debris onto some beaches and roadways on the Islands earlier this week.
  • At one point Saturday evening into Sunday morning, Ignacio was one of three Category 4 hurricanes in the Pacific, joined by Kilo and Jimena.

Recap: High Surf Impacts Hawaii

Earlier this week, dangerous surf lashed east-facing shores of Hawaii, particularly the Big Island and Maui, so far this week. The Star Advertiser of Honolulu reported sand and debris washing up onto some roads, which has also prompted beach closures.
Several tropical systems have threatened Hawaii over the past few weeks, but most of them changed course and/or weakened before directly impacting the islands.
Climatologically speaking, virtually all hurricanes near the Hawaiian Islands since 1950 have approached from the southeast, south or southwest. Those approaching from the east tend to either weaken quickly or shift north of the islands. Iselle in 2014 was one notable exception, however.
(MORE: Hawaii's Hurricane History)
MORE: Hurricane Satellite Imagery

Labor Day Weekend Will Be a Last Hurrah of Summer or a Preview of Fall, Depending Where You Live

Linda Lam
Published: September 4,2015

Will you be able to enjoy one last weekend of summer or will fall be taking over Labor Day weekend?
If you live in the Northeast or Midwest, it will definitely feel more like the dog days of mid-summer than September. This is due to a large area of high pressure that will be centered over the eastern half of the U.S. through this holiday weekend.
However, if you are in the Northwest or the northern Rockies you are in store for a fall preview as an upper-level trough will be moving through this weekend.
A few severe thunderstorms are also possible along a slow moving cold front in portions of the Plains and Midwest, while pesky afternoon thunderstorms may soak parts of the Southeast.
(MORE: Severe Thunderstorm Forecast)


Saturday's Forecast

High pressure will dominate much of the East bringing warm and sunny conditions. If you are heading to the beaches from New England to the Mid-Atlantic one last time, dry and warm conditions are expected Saturday and through the holiday. However, scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms are expected to develop in the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast, particularly during the afternoon and early evening.
High temperatures up to 15 degrees above average will be found in the Midwest and interior Northeast, with some of those areas flirting with 90 degrees.
A cold front stretching from western Ontario into the northern Plains will enhance the risk of thunderstorms in the region, with a few storms reaching severe criteria. Showers will also be found through much of the Northwest due to the influence of the upper-level trough. Meanwhile, snow is even possible in the highest elevations of Idaho, Montana and northwestern Wyoming on Saturday night.
Thunderstorms will also develop in parts of the Four Corners region, enhanced somewhat from moisture courtesy of Tropical Storm Kevin. Meanwhile, further west across much of California and the coastal Northwest, sunshine and dry conditions should prevail.
High temperatures will range from the 50s to the 70s for much of the Northwest, which is up to 20 degrees below average for this time of year.
(FORECAST: New York | Atlanta | Minneapolis | Salt Lake City)


Sunday's Forecast

The cold front in the central U.S. will move slowly eastward, bringing the chance for thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe, across the Upper Midwest. Showers will also linger on the backside of the area of low pressure in the northern Plains and northern Rockies. Some snow is not out of the question in the highest terrain.
Chilly conditions will persist in much of the Northwest and the northern Rockies. Temperatures to start the day will be in the 30s and 40s for much of the region and will recover into the 60s and 70s. The Southwest, meanwhile, is in store for a mainly dry day with hot temperatures in the interior and typically cooler highs are expected towards the coast. A few t-storms cannot be ruled out in parts of Arizona and New Mexico, however.
If you liked the weather on Saturday in the Northeast then Sunday will be a winner as well. Most of the Northeast will see a warm and dry day. The best chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the East will continue to be found in the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast.
Summerlike temperatures will continue to hang on in the Midwest and Northeast with highs in the 80s and 90s. Expect more heat, with some highs approaching 100 degrees, in the southern Plains. Temperatures will be closer to average in the Southeast.
(FORECAST: Pittsburgh | Dallas | Green Bay | Los Angeles)

Labor Day (Monday)

Labor Day Forecast

High pressure will once again influence weather conditions in the Northeast, with another sunny and hot day on tap, making it a trifecta for the extended holiday weekend.
Cooler temperatures will begin to move into the Midwest as the cold front mentioned above continues to press eastward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this system from the central Plains, northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes.
Outdoor picnics and barbecues across the Gulf Coast and into the Carolinas will need to be prepared for scattered drenching thunderstorms. Highs around much of the South will reach the 80s and 90s.
Most of the West will see improving conditions as high pressure moves in bringing a dry end to the Labor Day weekend. The exception will be areas near the Canadian border, where a few showers are still possible, and the Desert Southwest, where afternoon and evening t-storms could flare up. The West Coast will see mostly sunny skies and temperatures will be a touch warmer, inching toward seasonable levels.
(FORECAST: Boston | Miami | Chicago | San Francisco)
MORE: Places to See in September (PHOTOS)

Ignacio: A Rare Tropical Storm So Far North

Quincy Vagell
Published: September 4,2015

  • Tropical storm Ignacio was located near 34 degrees North latitude in the central Pacific Friday night, moving north, well north of Hawaii.
  • Ignacio is forecast to remain a named tropical storm through most of this weekend, moving toward the Gulf of Alaska.
  • Based on that forecast, Ignacio could become the second furthest north tropical storm on record in the central or eastern Pacific.
(MORE: Ignacio Bound For ... Alaska?)
More than a week after it developed, Ignacio was still going strong Friday night, and is moving north into somewhat uncharted territory.
Most tropical systems in the Pacific quickly weaken north of 30 degrees North, but thanks in part to anamalously warm ocean temperatures, Ignacio has remained a tropical cyclone as it races north. It is forecast to pass 40 degrees North as a tropical storm and could make it even further before eventually becoming extratropical.
Since record keeping began in 1949, only four tropical storms have reached 40 degrees North in the central or eastern Pacific.

Tropical Storms North of 40N
Three of those systems (Dot, Guillermo and Wene) quickly weakened at that point. The unnamed storm in 1975 actually became a hurricane for a time after crossing that boundary, before weakening to a remnant low just before reaching southeastern Alaska. Guillermo remained an extratropical storm as it circled through the Gulf of Alaska and toward the West Coast of the United States.

Forecast Track

Where Will Ignacio Go?

Based on the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast, Ignacio is expected to start the extratropical transition process around 44 degrees North and become a still robust extratropical storm by 47 degrees North. Should this happen, Ignacio would become the second furthest north tropical storm on record, dating back to 1949.
Although the remnants of Ignacio should curve east before reaching Alaska, some of its leftover moisture could brush the southeastern portion of the state. Along the Alaska coastline, increased surf can be expected from the system's swells by early next week. Beyond that, the extratropical system could move into the Northwest, bringing more beneficial rains to portions of the region.
(FORECAST: Portland | Seattle
Remnants of weakening tropical cyclones in the western Pacific have approached the Aleutian Islands, but none of those systems remained tropical as they moved toward the Gulf of Alaska.
With warm ocean temperatures in place and a strengthening El Niño expected in the coming months, the tropical Pacific may remain active for while.
MORE: 7 Wonders of Alaska

Invest 91-L: Tropical Wave Should Become the Next Atlantic Named Storm

Quincy Vagell
Published: September 4,2015

  • A tropical wave, designated Invest 91-L, is being monitored in the far eastern Atlantic for possible development into a tropical depression or storm.
  • This could occur anytime over the next five days.
  • This disturbance is moving west at 15-20 mph and, unlike Fred, should remain south of the Republic of Cabo Verde.
  • It remains far too soon to determine if this system will survive the long journey to the Lesser Antilles, or succumb to dry air and/or wind shear.
(MORE: Satellite Loop | Ensemble Model Tracks | Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)

Current status

Current Wind Shear

Water Vapor Satellite Image
MORE: Hurricane Strikes (PHOTOS)

Fred Regains Tropical Storm Status, May Approach Azores Next Week

September 4,2015

Current Status and Forecast:

  • Fred has fluctuated between tropical storm and tropical depression status and is about 1,300 miles southwest of the Azores.
  • Fred will likely weaken somewhat through the holiday weekend, thanks to wind shear, possibly becoming a remnant low.
  • It appears that some better organizing is probable early next week, as wind shear relaxes, given water temperatures are rather warm in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
  • Fred is expected to curl northeast in the week ahead, thanks to a sharp southward dip in the jet stream over the north Atlantic.
  • Fred is no immediate threat to land, but may approach the Azores Islands by the middle or end of this upcoming week.
(MAP: Follow Tropical Depression Fred with our new Interactive Storm Tracker)
Below we have maps with the latest location and the forecast path of Fred. Scroll below the maps for a recap of Fred's impacts in the Republic of Cabo Verde.

Current Position

Fred Projected Path

A Rare Hurricane For Cape Verde Islands

Fred is just the fourth Atlantic named storm to form east of 19 degrees West longitude, the National Hurricane Center said in its advisory issued for the storm Sunday morning.
The Associated Press reported all airports were closed in the republic Monday, in anticipation of the storm. They also reported that the storm caused flooding, scattered power outages and uprooted some trees, but no major damage was noted.
According to a blog from Bob Henson of, there is no reliable record of a hurricane ever making landfall in Cabo Verde. Henson said that an 1892 storm reportedly intensified into a hurricane while passing to the south of the northwest Cape Verde Islands. In 1998, Jeanne reached hurricane status while passing south of the islands by about 100 miles, Henson added.
The islands have seen deadly impacts from tropical storms. The deadliest was Tropical Storm Fran in 1984 whose heavy rains caused flooding that killed more than two dozen people, Henson said.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
MORE: Hurricane Strikes (PHOTOS)

Typhoon Kilo May Become a Rare Three-Week Long Tropical Cyclone

September 4,2015
  • Typhoon Kilo has picked up some speed, moving west, to the west of the International Date Line.
  • Kilo is expected to strengthen, and may become the equivalent of a Category 4 storm in the western Pacific this weekend or early in the week ahead.
  • Kilo is not an immediate threat to land, but could survive as a tropical cyclone for another week, if not longer.
  • We can't yet rule out a close pass to the Japanese mainland late next week or early next weekend.
  • At one point this past Saturday evening into Sunday morning, Kilo was one of three Category 4 hurricanes in the Pacific, joined by Jimena and Ignacio.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)

Kilo's Location, History, and Forecast Path

Projected Path

















Kilo was first classified as a depression almost 700 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, on August 20.
While, thankfully, never getting its convective act together in time to pose a threat to Hawaii, Kilo finally did so roughly one week later well west-southwest of the islands, intensifying to Category 4 strength.
And it's not done yet.
Instead of turning north, getting caught by the jet stream, and turning into a post-tropical storm over the North Pacific Ocean, high pressure aloft over the western Pacific to the east-southeast of Japan is expected to eventually accelerate Kilo westward into the new week ahead. For the time-being, Kilo is drifting west at a very slow pace.
Kilo may, eventually, come uncomfortably close to the Japanese mainland late in the new week ahead, though eventually the jet stream should catch up with Kilo and turn it back northeast away from the mainland.
Kilo is also expected to strengthen through early next week, possibly to a Category 4 or stronger equivalent typhoon, thanks to a lack of wind shear, favorable exhaust from the jet stream well to the north, and very warm sea-surface temperatures.
Kilo is already over 2,400 statute miles from its genesis point as a depression two weeks ago. This is roughly the shortest flight distance between Washington, D.C. and San Francisco.
While that distance is not atypical for tropical cyclones, Kilo may persist as a tropical cyclone well into next week, another seven or more days, before the jet stream finally catches it and it becomes a post-tropical cyclone.
According to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, the longest-lived tropical cyclone on record in any basin was Hurricane/Typhoon John, which lasted for 30 days ending early on September 10, 1994.
As you can see in the HRD list, tropical cyclones lasting three weeks or more are quite rare. Kilo may join that rare company next week.
Furthermore, time spent as a Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclone may also approach record territory for the Pacifc Basin, according to Colorado State University tropical expert, Dr. Phil Klotzbach (Wunderblog).
Klotzbach also said Tuesday Kilo became the third tropical cyclone to cross the International Dateline this year, breaking the old record for any year set in 1997.

Hawaii in the Rearview Mirror

Despite Kilo's inability to organize last week, the large-scale circulation near Hawaii brought enhanced moisture to the Aloha State, leading to locally heavy rainfall.
Honolulu picked up 4.48 inches of rain from early last Sunday morning (Aug. 23) through early this past Tuesday morning (local time), resulting in some road flooding and road closures on Oahu, Maui and the Big Island. Rain rates of 3-4 inches per hour were estimated by radar early Tuesday morning approaching Kauai.
Thunderstorms over the islands produced up to an estimated 10,000 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes over a 24-hour period from midday last Sunday (Aug. 23) through midday last Monday (Aug. 24), according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
Honolulu's 3.53 inches on Aug. 24 was an all-time record for any August day, topping a 2.92-inch deluge from Aug. 4, 2004, and propelled the Hawaiian capital to its wettest month of August, besting that record which had stood since 1888 (4.47 inches).

MORE: Hurricane Iniki, 1992

Tropical Storm Kevin Streaming Moisture into the Desert Southwest

September 4,2015
Current Status and Forecast:
  • Tropical Storm Kevin is about 340 miles west of Los Cabos, on the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 
  • Kevin began to weaken on Friday and is expected to dissipate to a remnant low by Saturday night.
  • Even though this system is no threat to land, some remnant moisture from this system is ejecting northeast into the Desert Southwest, enhancing shower and t-storm activity.
  • The dissipating system is forecast to curve away from the Baja this weekend as Kevin is expected to encounter increasing vertical wind shear, drier air and cooler sea-surface temperatures this weekend.
(MAP: Follow Tropical Storm Kevin with our new Interactive Storm Tracker)
Below we have maps with the latest location and the forecast path of Kevin.

Latest Storm Information

Projected path
Check back with us at and The Weather Channel for updates on this system.
MORE: Hurricane Satellite Imagery (PHOTOS)

Hurricane Jimena Slowly Weakening in the Central Pacific, Adding to Hawaii High Surf

September 4,2015

Current Status and Forecast:

  • Jimena has weakened to a Category 1 hurricane after being a Category 4 hurricane from early last Saturday morning through early Tuesday morning.
  • Hurricane Jimena is over 600 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.
  • Jimena will continue to weaken, gradually, and may be downgraded to a tropical storm this weekend.
  • This system is no threat to land over the next five days as it tracks slowly northwestward, then bends westward in the week ahead.
  • Swells from Jimena will create dangerous, perhaps damaging surf along east-facing shores of Hawaii through the weekend. (NWS high surf alert)
  • At one point Saturday evening into Sunday morning, Jimena was one of three Category 4 equivalent hurricanes in the Pacific, joined by Kilo and Ignacio.
(MAP: Follow Hurricane Jimena with our new Interactive Storm Tracker)

Current Status

Forecast Track

MORE: Hurricane Ana (Hawaii - Oct. 2014)

UK Weather Cool, Tranquil Through Weekend

By Dave Samuhel, Meteorologist
September 4,2015; 10:51PM,EDT

A cool but tranquil weekend is on tap for the UK. Low pressure will track into Scandinavia Saturday. This will bring cool air from the north across the UK. Meanwhile, a strong high pressure system will slowly build into the UK from the west. The difference in pressure between the low and the high will bring some gusty winds to the UK, especially Scotland and England.

The proximity of the low to England will limit sunny periods as well on Saturday. But, extended sunny intervals are expected on Sunday across most of the UK.
Along with the clouds, an odd shower or two will affect southern and eastern-most England on Saturday. The remainder of the UK will be dry. High temperatures on Saturday will reach around 16 C in London. Similar temperatures can be expected across most other parts of the UK. But, parts of Ireland could be a tad warmer.
London Radar
Detailed Forecast for London
AccuWeather MinuteCast® for London

On Sunday, the high temperature in London will be slightly warmer, reaching 18 C. Most of the UK will see a similar rise in temperatures compared to Saturday's readings. Sunday will be largely rainier, though a shower cannot be ruled out across northern Scotland.

Santiago Welcomes Early-Week Rain; Cooler Air to Follow

By Courtney Spamer, Meteorologist
September 4,2015; 10:49PM,EDT
After no rain for almost a month, Santiago can expect some wet weather for the start of the week. At the same time, a blast of cooler air pushes northward, bringing a chill across Chile and the Pampas for mid-week.
A low pressure developing over the Pacific Ocean will move into central Chile on Sunday, bringing with it some light to moderate rainfall; the higher elevations of the Andes will see a round of snow.
"Rainfall amounts west of the Andes will be on the order of 6 to 12 mm (0.25 to 0.50 of an inch)," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller. "Snow amounts in the Andes can reach or exceed 30 cm (12 inches)".
Although the expected rainfall amounts for places like Santiago are relatively small, rain has been in short supply over the last few months.

Despite normally being considered the hear of Chile's "wet season", less than 25 mm (1 inch) of rain fell in Santiago during the month of July. The beginning of August was relatively wet with about 100 mm (4 inches) of rain in about a week, but once again the city has remained dry for the second half of August and into early September.
The incoming rain "will not erase the drought, but any rain is welcome and needed," Miller said, "especially with them heading towards the dry season."
The rain and snow is expected to continue to be light throughout central Chile Sunday and into Monday, before moving eastward across central Argentina and into southern Brazil. However, once crossing the Andes, the system will become significantly weakened.
Rain will be much spottier, with little accumulation in places like Cordoba and Rosario in Argentina; the same is true for parts of Uruguay and southern Brazil.
Santiago Forecast at AccuWeather
Chile Interactive Satellite
AccuWeather Spring 2015 Outlook

Meanwhile, a cold front shifts northward from southern Chile and Argentina Sunday and Monday. Pulling in some cool air behind it, temperatures will begin to drop down on Monday in Santiago.
"With afternoon highs only around 14 C (58 F) on Tuesday, temperatures will be about 5.5 C (10 F) below normal," Miller said.
Santiago is not the only city bracing for this shot of cool air. Temperatures in Buenos Aires will bottom out on Wednesday and Thursday, as highs only climb into the middle teens Celsius (upper 50s in Fahrenheit). Cordoba and Rosario will see a similar drop in temperatures for the middle of the week.
The cooldown, however, is expected to be brief. Temperatures should return to normal with a westerly push of warmer air will reach the Andes and the Pampas by the end of the week.
Floodwaters Roar Down Mexico City Streets

Jimena May Recurve Toward Hawaii Following Labor Day

By , Senior Meteorologist
September 4,2015; 10:48PM,EDT
There is a significant chance that Jimena will turn back toward Hawaii and threaten the islands during the second week of September.
As of Friday evening, local time, Jimena was located about 620 miles (995 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii, and was moving to the north-northwest at 3 mph (6 km/h).
High pressure to the north is expected to strengthen and begin to alter the path of Jimena this weekend.

According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck, "The strengthening high is due to Ignacio hanging on. The high will block the path of Jimena and is likely to turn the storm to the west later this weekend."
From there, depending on how much the high builds, the system could turn more to the southwest or continue moving toward the west.
During much of the weekend the strength of Jimena will range between a tropical storm to a minimal hurricane with a gradual decrease in strength.
According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, typically, the vast majority of tropical systems that track southwestward tend to weaken, due to atmospheric physics.
Latest Statistics on Jimena
Ignacio Stirs High Surf Warnings on the Big Island, Hawaii
More Tropical Systems May Head Toward Hawaii as El Niño Strengthens

"There has never been a full-blown tropical storm or hurricane approach and strike Hawaii from the northeast, from that part of the Pacific, based on records since 1950," Kottlowski said.
There is a chance the system could maintain itself that long due to unusually warm waters in the region.
Surf conditions will remain relatively rough around Hawaii this weekend due to Jimena to the northeast and Ignacio well to the north.
"Surf will build as Jimena moves closer to the islands next week," Smerbeck said. "But, how rough it gets and whether or not there will be an increase in squalls with drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms will depend on the track and strength of the system."
The 2015 hurricane season has been very active in the central Pacific and is likely to continue through the month and into October, due in a large part to El Niño.

Dynamic Storm to Drench Northwest, Rattle Midwest With Severe Weather

By Brett Rathbun, Meteorologist
September 4,2015; 10:42PM,EDT
Strong thunderstorms will roll across the Upper Midwest while rain and strong winds roar through the Northwest this weekend.
According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Steve Travis, "A storm system will track from the Rockies to the northern Plains through the weekend and support a stormy weather pattern across the Upper Midwest and Northwest.
Anyone traveling across these areas this weekend should be alert for dangerous traveling conditions at times and use ​AccuWeather Minutecast® to keep up-to-date with changing weather conditions across your area.
Breaking Weather News
Weather delays will be expected across parts of interstates 15, 29, 35, 80, 90 and 94 through the weekend.
JUMP TO: Strong Storms to Spread Across the Upper Midwest | Rain, Wind to Roar Across the Northwest
Strong Storms to Spread Across the Upper Midwest
On the warm, humid side of this storm system, conditions will be favorable for strong thunderstorms to develop this weekend.
"Plenty of warm and humid air will move into the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin over the coming days which will help to fuel these storms," Travis said.
The main threats with these storms will be strong winds and torrential downpours. Some hail is also possible in the strongest storms.
The heaviest storms could lead to local flash flooding.
"There is the potential for isolated power outages due to downed trees and power lines," Travis added.
Cities at risk for strong thunderstorms on Saturday include Bismarck and Fargo, North Dakota; Aberdeen and Sioux Falls, South Dakota; Alexandria and Bemidji, Minnesota; and Norfolk, Nebraska.

This activity will shift eastward on Sunday and produce strong thunderstorms from northern Missouri to southern Ontario.
Cities at risk for a strong thunderstorm on Sunday include Duluth and Minneapolis, Minnesota; Green Bay and Madison, Wisconsin; Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, Iowa; Maryville, Missouri; Omaha, Nebraska; and Thunder Bay, Ontario.
If you see lightning or hear thunder in the distance, seek shelter immediately. Lightning bolts can reach out several miles outside of a thunderstorm.
Much cooler air will build across the Upper Midwest to start next week. Widespread high temperatures in the 80s and 90s F this week will be replaced with 60s and 70s F next week.
A storm system may develop across the central Plains early next week and bring another round of storms from the central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes.
Rain, Wind to Roar Across the Northwest
On the cool side of this storm system, a soaking rain will fall across parts of the Northwest this weekend.

Very warm conditions across the northern Rockies earlier this week will be erased by below-normal temperatures through the weekend.
According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brian Thompson, "Billings, Montana, reached 95 degrees F on Tuesday. By the weekend, high temperatures will struggle to reach the middle 60s, with overnight lows in the 40s."
US Labor Day Weekend Forecast: Warmth to Rebuild Across Northeast; Stormy Across the Southeast, Upper Midwest
2015 US Fall Forecast
United States Interactive Radar

Rain will put a damper on any holiday activities this weekend across Billings and Great Falls, Montana; Spokane, Washington; Boise Idaho; and La Grande, Oregon.
This rain could bring major relief to the wildfires that continue to burn from eastern Washington to western Montana.
"Snow could mix in across the higher terrain across the northern Rockies as temperatures fall at or below freezing on Saturday night," according to AccuWeather meteorologist Edward Vallee.
The worst of the rain will occur on Saturday as the storm system moves into southern Manitoba on Sunday. Showers will remain across parts of Montana on Sunday.
While wet weather will be limited on Sunday, strong winds will pick up across the Intermountain West.
"Winds could gust over 60 mph across the Intermountain West on Sunday," Vallee said.
Strong winds could easily knock down trees due to saturated soil from the heavy rain.
For any wildfires that are not contained by this weekend, these strong winds could cause these wildfires to spread rapidly.
No significant weather systems will move through the Northwest next week. Temperatures, however, will remain seasonable across the area.

Atlantic May Yield More Systems as Peak of Hurricane Season Nears Despite El Nino

By , Senior Meteorologist
September 4,2015; 10:40PM,EDT
While lulls in tropical activity in the Atlantic will continue through the Labor Day weekend, a rapid end to the hurricane season in September does not always occur during an El Niño.
It is true that an El Niño can sometimes make the environment more hostile for tropical systems to form and survive faster than average. However, this is not always the case.
According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "There are some years where the cause and effect nature of El Niño practically bring an early shut down to the Atlantic hurricane season and other years where we see tropical storms or hurricanes well into October."
The average peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is around Sept. 10, according to NOAA.

Hostile conditions would be an uptick in strong cool fronts pushing off the Atlantic Coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico, as well as large pockets of dry air and wind shear.
During strong wind shear, there is a rapid change in the direction and speed of the flow of air at different levels of the atmosphere which tend to prevent tropical storm formation or limit early development.
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Track Fred Over the Open Waters of Atlantic
Ignacio May Unleash Stormy Conditions in Alaska, British Columbia

"September is the prime time of the year for Cape Verde systems [westward-moving disturbances in the Equatorial Atlantic]," Kottlowski said. "Areas of wind shear and dry air are still present, but these inhibiting factors are not as ferocious as they were earlier in the season over much of the region."
Current loop of the tropical Atlantic basin. (Satellite/NOAA)
Despite the influence of El Niño on the Atlantic basin this year, AccuWeather meteorologists do not expect a complete shutdown of tropical activity and an early end to hurricane season during most of September.
"As for whether or not there will be tropical storms and hurricanes cruising the Atlantic during October and early November this year, we cannot say for sure," Kottlowski said.
This question will be answered as we see how quickly south wind shear and cool air progress later this month.
As Erika and the feature in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico fade away, the parade of disturbances moving westward from Africa will need to be monitored through September.

"The main areas to watch for development moving forward through the height of hurricane season and into late September will be from the Africa coast to the Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico," Kottlowski said.
Even though the Caribbean, for example, has been a hostile environment for development for much of the season due to dry air and wind shear, these conditions are less extreme at this time.
One or more disturbances moving off of Africa and into the western Atlantic could slowly organize and strengthen over the next week.
"One such system could become the next tropical cyclone in the Atlantic during the Labor Day weekend," Kottlowski said.

Fred, which struck the Cape Verde Islands as a hurricane during late August, could survive a trip to the Azores but not as a fully tropical system by later next week.
The system near Bermuda is less likely to take on tropical characteristics due to a push of dry air forecast to move in this weekend.
While El Niño does not reduce the number of tropical disturbances moving westward from Africa, it does limit the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin in general.
However, El Niño does not tend to reduce the number of strong systems, such as Category 3 hurricanes or greater, so much. If a system can move into a pocket of favorable conditions with low wind shear and moisture, then it can still progress to a major hurricane. An example of this during the present season was Danny.
As of Sept. 4, 2015, there have been four tropical storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane for the Atlantic season.
While the forecast for the number of systems and landfalls are meant to be used as a rough guide, based on the AccuWeather 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast, there is still room for more hurricanes, tropical storms and another landfall in the U.S. before the official season draws to a close in November.

Tropical Storm Kevin to Increase Thunderstorms in Mexico, US Four Corners

By , Senior Meteorologist
September 4,2015; 10:38PM,EDT
While Tropical Storm Kevin will stay well away from Mexico, its moisture will still lead to an increase in showers and thunderstorms from Baja California to the Four Corners region of the United States into Saturday.
Tropical Storm Kevin took shape early Thursday morning several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
Southwest Storms Continue
The good news is that Kevin should not follow in the footsteps of Ignacio and Jimena in becoming a major hurricane. Despite the slight strengthening that occurred on Thursday, the combination of disruptive wind shear and drier air should prevent Kevin from not only becoming a hurricane but also a strong tropical storm as it churns northward through Friday.

During this weekend, further weakening will cause Kevin to dissipate to a remnant low as it curves to the west into the open waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean.
While the center of Kevin will remain well away from land, some of its moisture will continue to be funneled across the Baja California Peninsula to the Four Corners region of the United States. An increase in showers and thunderstorms will result with the most activity in and around the higher terrain.
Latest Statistics on Kevin
AccuWeather Hurricane Center
Mexico Weather Center

Widespread flash flooding is not expected, but there can be isolated issues. That is especially true in any slow-moving downpour.
"The increase in showers and thunderstorms is not atypical for Baja California as this is the time of year to get some tropical moisture drawn into the area," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller. The same can be said for the Four Corners region as Kevin's moisture will increase thunderstorm activity much like an extra surge of monsoon moisture.

Residents and vacationers will face disruptions to outdoor plans due to the showers and thunderstorms. This includes hikers in the Four Corners and beachgoers at the resorts in Baja California. Remember that as soon as thunder is heard, the danger of being struck by lightning is present.
Outside of any isolated flooding problems, the rain will actually be beneficial to Arizona and western New Mexico by providing drought relief.
Monsoon Storm Hits Arizona Causing Power Outages, Flash Flooding
With Kevin expected to remain relatively weak, there will only be a slight increase in surf along the southwestern coast of Baja California and mainland southwestern Mexico Friday and Saturday as Kevin makes its closest approach before curving away and fizzling.

Prolonged Cool Stretch Encompasses Paris, Brussels, Berlin, Warsaw

By , Senior Meteorologist
September 4,2015; 10:36PM,EDT
After heat has dominated headlines this summer, cool air has finally taken control of the northern half of Europe with no signs of departing anytime soon.
Cool air will not be quick to leave the northern half of Europe with the jet stream positioned to the south, a change from its position of bulging northward on numerous occasions this summer.
Europe: Cooler Conditions Move into Europe
Heat will instead be kept to the south into early next week, even getting swept away from the Balkans Sunday and Monday. The result will be the coolest stretch of weather for the northern half of Europe since early summer and late spring.
Highs into early next week will mainly be in the middle teens to near 20 C (60s F) from Paris to Brussels to Berlin to Warsaw to Minsk. On the days when temperatures are on the lower end of that range, these cities will feel like the calendar has jumped ahead to late September or early October.
Residents will have a chance to enjoy or participate in outdoor activities without worrying about suffering from heat exhaustion. Energy demand will not be as high as fans and air conditioners catch a break.
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There may even be some people who opt to grab a light jacket at night and in the early morning hours before heading outdoors.
Many residents may further think that autumn has settled in since this cool stretch follows the heat that sent temperatures soaring into the lower 30s C (86 to 94 F) as August transitioned to September. Brisk winds will also result in even lower AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures in some communities.
Such winds will continue to move into Copenhagen and Berlin this weekend, and into Warsaw on Sunday.

The winds will be blowing on the backside of two storm systems, one which will cross Scandinavia and reach the Baltic Sea this weekend.
These systems will occasionally produce showers and make umbrellas a necessity.