Thursday, September 29, 2016

Persistent rain to raise flood risk in part of northeastern US

By , AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
September 29,2016; 8:33PM,EDT
 
 
Persistent downpours will raise the flood risk in part of the mid-Atlantic into Friday, while rain will spread over the rest of the northeastern United States into the weekend.
While the cool and rainy weather into this weekend will have people reaching for jackets and sweaters, some may need to keep an eye on streets and basements for flooding.
Highs will mainly range from the lower 60s F to the middle 70s into this weekend. However, the combination of wind, rain and other conditions will cause AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures to be in the 40s and 50s at times.
Storm to raise flood risk in mid-Atlantic
"The slow-moving storm will bring periodic heavy rains to much of the mid-Atlantic through Friday," AccuWeather Meteorologist Edward Vallee said.

"Since Atlantic moisture will be involved and downpours will linger in some areas, there will be a general 2 to 4 inches of rain over the mid-Atlantic states," AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Rich Putnam said.
There is the potential for a narrow zone of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts, Putnam said.
Flooding can occur despite prior dry conditions.
The bulk of the flooding will be restricted to urban areas and along small streams, Valley stated.
These conditions may be widespread from parts of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. Gusty thunderstorms with hail will accompany the heavy rain threat in some places. Localized flooding can occur from northern Pennsylvania to eastern North Carolina, with a second pocket in part of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

Motorists should anticipate delays during their commutes due to poor visibility and high water during the downpours.
Flash flooding has already closed some roads in parts of Maryland, Michigan and North Carolina.
Baltimore, Washington, D.C., Martinsburg, West Virginia, and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, are likely to be affected by urban flooding. Isolated urban flooding has occurred as far to the west as Detroit and as far to the south as Fayetteville, North Carolina. Motorists should never attempt to drive through flooded roadways.
Downpours, fog and a low cloud ceiling can also lead to occasional airline delays from Philadelphia to Pittsburgh and Detroit initially but will also spread to areas from New York City and Boston this weekend.
RELATED:
Hurricane Matthew may approach US next week
Northeast US interactive radar
US winter forecast: Frequent snow to blast Northeast

In addition to urban and stream flooding, some of the rivers in the area will be on the rise. Since most of these large rivers were very low at the onset of the rain, major flooding is not likely. However, minor to moderate flooding can occur along the upper Potomac and Rappahannock rivers, since much of the rain has focused on these watersheds thus far.
Some rain to reach drought areas of New England
Farther north, rain-free weather will hold on over much of New England for a time.
Much of New England and New York state are in need of soaking rainfall due to long-term abnormally dry to extreme drought conditions.
"Some beneficial rain may enter the southern and western parts of these areas by Friday and the balance during the weekend," Vallee said.

Enough rain may fall on parts of New York state and southern New England to get small streams flowing and put a small amount of water back into ponds, lakes and reservoirs. However, the storm will not drop enough rain to completely alleviate extreme drought.
Following the heavy rain into Friday, rainfall over much of the mid-Atlantic is likely to become more sporadic in nature during this weekend.
There is a chance Matthew may track northward enough to impact the weather in the Eastern states later next week.
Minor issues anticipated in coastal areas
In addition to areas of soaking rain and urban flooding, coastal flooding will be possible from Virginia to eastern Massachusetts at times of high tide. Minor to moderate coastal flooding will extend along the Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey coasts with tides running 2-3 feet above normal through Friday.

Because of the proximity of the new moon, astronomical tides are higher than much of the rest of the month.
Winds blowing onshore will push some Atlantic Ocean water and waves toward the coast, which can cause overwash on some low-lying beach roads and sea and bay water to invade some communities.
Since above-normal tides and rough surf will persist for more than a few hours, minor beach erosion is likely.

Day of German Unity: Weather to improve for Monday celebrations after unsettled weekend

By , Senior Meteorologist
September 29,2016; 7:55PM,EDT
 
 
The holiday weekend will start on an unsettled note, but the weather should clear up by Day of German Unity celebrations on Monday.
Festivities across Germany on Saturday and Sunday could face disruptions as a storm system moves through with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
The weekend will not be complete washout, though, as some communities experience wet weather on only one of the two days.

"Showers and thunderstorms will move across the country on Saturday, especially across central Germany where heavier downpours will be possible," AccuWeather Meteorologist Steve Travis said.
The holiday weekend will start on a dry note in southern Bavaria, including Munich, as well as far northern Germany from Bremen to Hamburg to Schwerin.
"Saturday will also still be fairly mild across much of Germany," Travis said.
Southern Bavaria will enjoy the highest temperatures throughout the country as temperatures rise into the lower 20s C (69-72 F).
"Cooler air will move in on Sunday with just a few showers across northern Germany," Travis said. "However, a couple of showers and thunderstorms may be across southeastern Germany, mainly from Munich to the east."
RELATED:
Interactive Germany radar
Check MinuteCast® for your location
Detailed forecast for Berlin

Oktoberfest attendees will want to be prepared with rain gear when moving between tents and attractions.
Autumn jackets that have been left home this week amid the mild spell will have to be brought back out of the closet. Highs on Sunday will be held about 6 degrees Celsius (10 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit) below Saturday's high of around 22 C (71 F).
Showers will return to far northern Germany. While there can be an isolated thunderstorm, most showers will tend to be brief and light and pose only minor inconveniences to those with outdoor plans.
Rhineland-Pfalz and Baden-Württemberg will see the driest weather across the country on Sunday.
By Day of German Unity, conditions will greatly improve, Travis said.
"Monday will be the driest day of the festival weekend with just a brief shower from Berlin on east," he said.

Umbrellas should be kept handy by those planning to spend a part of Monday at Brandenburg Gate in Berlin. There will be dry stretches of the day with any spotty shower lasting less than 30 minutes.
Monday will otherwise feature a mixture of clouds and sunshine across eastern and central areas with more sunshine toward the western border.
Highs on Monday will range from 14-17 C (57-62 F) in the east, including Berlin, and 15-19 C (59-66 F) across western areas.
Following the warmth from this week, the final day of Oktoberfest in Munich will finally feel like its namesake.
The dry weather will hold into midweek.

Japan to face new typhoon threat as Tropical Storm Chaba strengthens

By , Senior Meteorologist
September 29,2016; 7:04PM,EDT
 
 
Tropical Storm Chaba will continue to strengthen and could take aim at mainland Japan and its Ryukyu Islands next week.
Latest indications point toward Chaba tracking farther north than Typhoon Megi, but interests in northern Taiwan and eastern China are urged to continue to stay alert if the future typhoon tracks farther west than anticipated.
"Confidence remains moderate to high that Chaba will curve towards Japan and low for eastern China and northern Taiwan," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.
Residents in South Korea should also stay on alert for potential impacts next week if Chaba tracks far enough to the north before curving into Japan.

Chaba is on track to become a typhoon early this weekend and strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane by the end of Sunday, according to Roys.
After pushing away from Guam, Chaba will be over the open waters of the western Pacific Ocean into this weekend. The danger to shipping interests will gradually become more severe as damaging winds, torrential rain and seas increase around Chaba's center.
RELATED:
AccuWeather typhoon center
Japan weather center
VIDEO: Rescuers searching for survivors after landslide in China

"Chaba should even reach the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane at some point on Monday," Roys said.
Chaba may be bearing down on the Ryukyu Islands at that time.
One scenario for Chaba plows the future typhoon through the Ryukyu Islands around Monday before curving into mainland Japan.

Latest indications put the Okinawa and Amami islands at greatest risk for enduring damaging winds, flooding rain and an inundating surf from Chaba on Monday.
Residents should review what preparations would need to be completed to protect lives and property and heed any evacuation orders that get issued.
Chaba then threatens to curve into Kyushu or the far northern Ryukyu Islands before tracking eastward across southern Japan into midweek.

This is a live loop of Chaba. (NOAA/Satellite)
It is possible that Chaba will curve to the north then northeast fast enough for damaging winds and flooding rain to either bypass or only graze the Ryukyu Islands and mainland Japan.
Only if Chaba is slower to take that turn would it target the southernmost Ryukyu Islands and northern Taiwan before taking aim at Japan or the Korean Peninsula next week.
The latest typhoon threat comes after Taiwan and eastern China are beginning to cleanup after the devastation from deadly Megi.

World Weather Hot Spot for September 29-30,2016 from accuweather.com

Veaux Port,Saint Lucia: Extremely heavy rain;received a whopping 12.56 inches of rain on Wednesday (September 28,2016)

National Temperature and Rainfall Extremes for September 29,2016 from accuweather.com

As of 10:45PM,EDT/7:45PM,PDT




Daily U.S. Extremes

past 24 hours

  Extreme Location
High 102° Death Valley, CA
Low 22° Hohnholz Ranch, CO
Precip 6.93" Chincoteague, VA

WeatherWhys for September 29,2016 from accuweather.com

Fog becomes increasingly common during the fall season as the nights get longer and colder. At the same time the humidity can still be high, leading to the formation of early-morning fog.

Tropical Storm Chaba a Typhoon Threat to Okinawa, Japan Next Week

Jon Erdman
Published: September 29,2016

Tropical Storm Chaba, now well west of Guam, will pose a typhoon threat to parts of Japan next week.
According to the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Chaba's center is currently over 400 miles west of Guam.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Current Storm Information, Infrared Satellite Image
Chaba is now experiencing less wind shear than its time near Guam, allowing it to slowly gain strength, and it should become a typhoon by Saturday.
Then it becomes a question of how sharp a recurve – a turn toward the northwest, north, then northeast – Chaba takes this weekend and early next week.
The sharper and sooner the recurve, the less of a threat to Japan. The weaker and/or later a recurve, the more of a Japan threat.
(RECAP: Typhoon Malakas)

Forecast Path: Chaba
For now, the forecast path is quite uncertain, something not unusual with a forecast several days out.
If it doesn't recurve fast enough, it may pose a threat to Okinawa in the late Sunday/Monday timeframe and southern Japan Tuesday into Wednesday.
(FORECASTS: Kadena AB | Tokyo)
Furthermore, there's a chance, as is frequently the case, for Chaba to undergo a period of rapid intensification before potentially threatening parts of Japan.
(MORE: Typhoon Alley: The Planet's Most Intense Tropical Cyclones)
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this system.
MORE: Typhoon Megi Photos

Tropical Storm Roslyn (RECAP)

September 29,2016
Historical track of Tropical Storm Roslyn, September 25-29, 2016.
Tropical Storm Roslyn became the 17th named storm of the 2016 eastern Pacific hurricane season on September 26, 2016.
Roslyn never impacted land, but instead meandered around the eastern North Pacific before entering cooler waters off the coast of Mexico and an area where slightly higher wind shear was prevalent.
(MORE:  Hurricane Central)
MORE: Images of Hurricane Eyes

Flooding in Fayetteville, North Carolina, Leads to Water Rescues; Cumberland County Dam 'Caving In'

Sean Breslin
Published: September 29,2016

Officials performed numerous water rescues in parts of eastern North Carolina Thursday morning after heavy rains left many roads and properties flooded.
At least 25 water rescues were reported in Fayetteville and several roads were closed when flooding overtook them, according to the Fayetteville Observer. The nasty weather forced officials in Cumberland and Hoke counties to cancel school Thursday, while Harnett and Moore counties were delayed, the Associated Press said.
Thursday Cumberland County schools said classes are canceled on Friday. Special programs and all athletic activities are canceled. Fort Bragg schools are also closed Friday and Hoke County schools are on a two-hour delay.
Cumberland County officials said evacuations may be imminent near a dam that's "caving in," the Observer also reported. Carvers Creek State Park was closed while authorities investigated the dam near Spring Lake, but the report did not say what the consequences would be if there was a failure.
(MORE: Flooding Possible in the Mid-Atlantic)
Areas near the park received upwards of 7 inches of rain during the storms. A state of emergency was declared in Cumberland County because of the flooding, according to WNCN.com.
"I've never seen the Little River flood this high," 63-year-old Daniel Goins, who lives in Spring Lake, told the Observer.
Police asked drivers to avoid driving through flooded roadways, the News and Observer reported.
About 2,000 Duke Energy customers were without power Thursday morning, according to WITN.com.
You can see images and video of the flooding and its impacts below.

More views from around the city. STAY HOME and STAY SAFE. We have water rescues going on throughout the city
Mayor @NatRobertsonNC said at 11:30 this morning that the city of Fayetteville and Cumberland County have declared states of emergency.

MORE: Flooding in the Midwest

Matthew Becomes the Fifth Hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season; Jamaica, Hispañola, Cuba, Bahamas Threat

September 29,2016
Hurricane Matthew became the fifth hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season early Thursday afternoon, and poses a danger to Jamaica, parts of Hispañola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas early next week. It's potential U.S. impact later next week still remains unclear.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Matthew was located 150 miles north-northeast of Curaçao, as of Thursday evening.

Current Storm Status
A Hurricane Hunters reconnaissance mission early Thursday afternoon measured flight-level winds a few thousand feet above the sea of just over 85 mph northeast of the center of circulation, and a dropsonde just 2,100 feet above the surface sampled winds of 94 mph, prompting the upgrade to hurricane status.
A tropical storm watch continues for Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao and the northern coast of Colombia. Winds of 40 mph or greater are possible in the "ABC Islands" beginning later Thursday, and in northern Colombia on Friday.

Current Watches/Warnings
Radar from Meteo France shows the heaviest rain has ended, but a few bands of rain are still lingering over parts of the Lesser Antilles, but will slowly diminish the remainder of Thursday.
George F.L. Charles Airport on St. Lucia picked up 9.21 inches of rain Wednesday. On the south side of the island, Hewanorra Int'l Airport picked up 13.19 inches of rain in just 12 hours from 8 p.m. Wednesday through 8 a.m. Thursday, according to the Antigua Met Service.
A wind gust to 89 mph was reported in St. Pierre, Martinique, Wednesday evening. Some stations are elevated at 50 to 100 feet. Sustained winds of 39 mph were reported on the island of Barbados.

The 'Caribbean Right Turn'

Matthew is currently experiencing some wind shear provided by southwest winds several thousand feet above the surface, which has blown convection away from its center of circulation.

Current Satellite, Wind Shear
This wind shear may temporarily pump the brakes on any significant intensification of Matthew the next day or so. However, convection wrapping around the previously-exposed center may fend off the shear.
First up, given the southern track, outer bands of rain and winds to tropical storm force are possible in the typically drier "ABC Islands" – Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao – as well as parts of coastal Venezuela and Colombia Thursday through early Saturday.
Beyond that, uncertainty is still considerable on the critical details of this system.
(MORE: Just Because It's Fall Doesn't Mean We Shouldn't Pay Attention to the Tropics)
Over the next couple of days, Matthew should continue to move west as it rides the southern periphery of the Bermuda high.
Sometime this weekend, Matthew should make its long-anticipated northwest or northward turn in the Caribbean Sea, as the system reaches the southwestern edge of the Bermuda high.
The critical details regarding when exactly that turn is made, how sharp it is, and Matthew's intensity at that time will dictate the impacts for Jamaica, Hispañola, and eastern Cuba.
Unfortunately, there is still some important forecast uncertainty regarding those important details, which is common for a tropical cyclone forecast several days out.
(MORE: Facts/Myths About the Hurricane Cones of Uncertainty)
For now, impacts could begin in Jamaica and Hispañola (particularly Haiti) as soon as Sunday night, and in eastern Cuba as soon as Monday.
In addition, there is uncertainty regarding Matthew's intensity as it nears those locations. Matthew may be stronger than the current forecast.

Projected Path and Intensity
Beyond that, Matthew is likely to begin impacting parts of the central or southeast Bahamas by Tuesday.
(FLASHBACK: Hurricane Joaquin 2015)

U.S. Threat?

Beyond that, it is still too soon to determine which parts of the U.S. may be in danger next week.
Ensemble forecast guidance includes scenarios where Matthew moves north, then northeast remaining well off the East Coast, but also includes tracks into the Gulf of Mexico next week.
(MORE: Why Long-Range Model Forecasts For the Tropics Can't Often Be Trusted)
The track will depend, in part, on the steering currents in the atmosphere.
  • If high pressure aloft is stronger near or over the Eastern U.S., that may steer Matthew closer to some part of the U.S.
     
  • Conversely, if a southward dip in the jet stream is in play over some part of the Eastern U.S., that could help deflect Matthew to the east.
For now, ensemble forecast guidance is lessening the threat of a Gulf of Mexico track, but it is still too far out to rule out an East Coast threat later next week.
There is also considerable uncertainty on how fast Matthew moves.
Even if Matthew stays sufficiently off the East Coast, a threat of dangerous swells, coastal flooding, and beach erosion is likely to be in play along parts of the Eastern Seaboard.
Colorado State University tropical scientist, Dr. Phil Klotzbach noted 60 percent of landfalling U.S. hurricanes from September 27 and beyond since 1900 have occurred in Florida. However, while lower probability, there have been landfalls this late in the season as far west as the Texas Gulf Coast.
Typical October named storm origin locations and tracks.
For now, all interests in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Bahamas and U.S. East Coast should continue to monitor the progress of Matthew. Check back with us frequently at weather.com for any important forecast updates.
Now is a good time to make sure you're prepared before the storm. Are you #HurricaneStrong?
MORE: Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes

Weather Underground National Forecast for Thursday,September 29,2016

By: nationalsummary , 10:00PM,GMT on September 28,2016



 
Weather Underground Forecast for Thursday,September 29,2016

An area of low pressure will continue to produce active weather across the East Coast on Thursday, while scattered storms develop from the upper Intermountain West to the Southwest.

A low pressure area will rotate slowly over the Midwest and the Tennessee Valley. This system will usher moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms over a handful of states stretching from the middle Mississippi Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic. Prolonged heavy rain will bring threats of flash flooding to northeast Ohio, Pennsylvania, northeast West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia and Delaware. Cool air will also settle in across portions of the northern Plains, the central Plains, the Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Midwest and the Northeast. A cold frontal boundary associated with this system will extend southwestward. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near this frontal boundary over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula.

Meanwhile, a weak cold frontal boundary will extend southwestward from the northern Rockies to northern California. Cool air will trail this system over the Pacific Northwest. Scattered monsoonal thunderstorms will pop up from the upper Intermountain West to the Desert Southwest. Most of these storm will develop during the afternoon and evening.

This Date in Weather History for September 29,2016 from weatherforyou.com

Weather History
For Thursday,September 29,2016
 
 
 
1927 - An outbreak of tornadoes from Oklahoma to Indiana caused 81 deaths and 25 million dollars damage. A tornado (possibly two tornadoes) cut an eight-mile long path across Saint Louis MO, to Granite City IL, killing 79 persons. The damage path at times was a mile and a quarter in width. The storm followed a similar path to tornadoes which struck in 1871, 1896, and 1959. (The Weather Channel)
1959 - A storm produced 28 inches of snow at Colorado Springs, CO. (David Ludlum)
1983 - Heavy rains began in central and eastern Arizona which culminated in the worst flood in the history of the state. Eight to ten inch rains across the area caused severe flooding in southeastern Arizona which resulted in thirteen deaths and 178 million dollars damage. President Reagan declared eight counties of Arizona to be disaster areas. (The Weather Channel)
1986 - A week of violent weather began in Oklahoma which culminated in one of the worst flooding events in the history of the state. On the first day of the week early morning thunderstorms caused more than a million dollars damage in south Oklahoma City. Thunderstorms produced 4 to 7 inches of rain from Hobart to Ponca City, and another round of thunderstorms that evening produced 7 to 10 inches of rain in north central and northeastern sections of Oklahoma. (Storm Data)
1987 - A slow moving cold front produced rain from the Great Lakes Region to the Central Gulf Coast Region. A late afternoon thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 62 mph at Buffalo NY. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. In Oregon, the afternoon high of 96 degrees at Medford was a record for the date. (The National Weather Summary)
1988 - High pressure brought freezing temperatures to parts of Vermont and New York State. Burlington VT dipped to 30 degrees, and Binghamton NY reported a record low of 34 degrees. The high pressure system also brought cold weather to the Central Rocky Mountain Region. Alamosa CO reported a record low of 18 degrees, and Gunnison CO was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of just five degrees above zero. (National Weather Summary)
1989 - Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, as readings soared into the 80s and low 90s in the Northern Plateau and Northern Plains Region. Record highs included 91 degrees at Boise ID, and 92 degrees at Sheridan WY. The high of 100 degrees at Tucson AZ marked their 51st record high of the year, and their 92nd day of 100 degree weather. (National Weather Summary)

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Potent storm may spin up waterspouts over US Great Lakes into Friday

By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist
September 28,2016; 11:20PM,EDT
 
 
A chilly storm stalled over the midwestern United States could cause waterspouts to develop over the Great Lakes into Friday.
"A potent storm with plenty of cold air aloft will set the stage for waterspouts for the remainder of the week," AccuWeather Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
Waterspouts form as warm lake waters clash with cold air. This causes moisture from the lake to rise into the atmosphere. With enough spin of the air above the lake surface, this moisture then rotates, causing a waterspout.

Large waves also assist in waterspout development as it allows moisture to be lifted into the air much easier than on a lake with a smooth water surface.
"The greatest threats into Friday will be southern Lake Michigan and western Lake Erie," Pydynowski said.
Those living along the lakeshore should be on alert for rapidly changing weather conditions over the lakes through Friday. This includes those in the cities of Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Chicago, Illinois; Gary, Indiana; Benton Harbor, Michigan; and Cleveland, Ohio.
Several waterspouts were spotted over Lake Michigan on Wednesday, according to the International Centre for Waterspout Research and local National Weather Service offices.
RELATED:
Persistent rain to raise flood risk in part of northeastern US late this week
Northeast US interactive radar
Waterspouts: Are They Really Harmless?

Waterspouts are most frequent across the Great Lakes during the late summer and early fall when the water temperatures are at their highest and cool storm systems begin to dive southward from Canada.
Waterspouts and tornadoes are similar, but form differently. Waterspouts tend to form from the lake surface upward. Tornadoes develop from the thunderstorm cloud downward.
While waterspouts are less destructive than tornadoes, any boaters caught in a waterspout could face significant damage. Those living along the coast should seek shelter if a waterspout is approaching.
Most waterspouts fizzle out when reaching the coast, but the strongest may survive inland for a short time producing minor damage to homes and businesses.
A single cloud could produce multiple waterspouts at the same time.
Pending on the track of the storm, as well as where the cold air aloft sets up, waterspouts may continue to form into the upcoming weekend.

World Weather Hot Spot for September 28-29,2016 from accuweather.com

Fuzhou,China: Extremely heavy rain;received a whopping 9.7 inches of rain on Tuesday (September 27,2016)

WeatherWhys for September 28,2016 from accuweather.com

Storm systems typically get bigger and stronger during the fall months as building chill across the north begins to clash with the lingering warmth and humidity across the south.