Thursday, October 20, 2016

World Weather Hot Spot for October 20-21,2016 from

Baguilio,Philippines: Extremely heavy rain;received a whopping 14.5 inches of rain on Wednesday (October 19,2016)

WeatherWhys for October 20,2016 from

Thunderstorms become increasingly rare during the month of October. The reason for this is the decrease in surface heating due to the lower sun angle. This results in greater stability, which inhibits thunderstorm formation.

National Temperature and Rainfall Extremes for October 20,2016 from

As of 11PM,EDT/8PM,PDT

Daily U.S. Extremes

past 24 hours

  Extreme Location
High 100° Fullerton, CA
Low Angel Fire, NM
Precip 3.81" Youngstown, OH

Weekend to yield taste of winter for northeastern US following summerlike week

By , Senior Meteorologist
October 20,2016; 9:19PM,EDT
A dramatic change to colder weather, and in some cases a taste of winter with snow, will take place into this weekend following summerlike conditions in the northeastern United States.
The colder air was making slow progress across the Midwest prior to the end of the week. However, the cold push will accelerate and reach the Appalachians during Friday night and then the Atlantic Seaboard on Saturday.

Shorts and short-sleeve weather will be replaced by conditions requiring long-sleeves and layered clothing, including coats, hats and even gloves, for those spending time outdoors at area football games.
Some people may have to put their heat on for the first time this season. For those heating with firewood, be sure to bring wood in ahead of the rain to keep it dry.
Record-challenging high temperatures in the 70s and 80s F will be replaced by highs in the 40s and 50s.

Nighttime lows will be in the 30s and 40s with gusty wind during the first part of the weekend.
When factoring in AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures, it will feel 40 to 50 degrees colder, coming off the record warmth in many places. RealFeel Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees lower than the actual temperature by Saturday night.

"A quick dose of drenching rain and locally gusty thunderstorms will mark the leading edge of the colder air," according to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams.
A few locations could be hit by a thunderstorm with brief severe weather. In parts of upstate New York as well as northern and eastern New England, enough rain could fall to cause urban flooding. This can occur regardless of prior drought conditions.
The fall foliage may take a hit from the change to colder weather.
US winter forecast: Frequent snow to blast Northeast
5 weather threats to be wary of during the fall
Check AccuWeather MinuteCast® for your location

"Blustery conditions may knock a lot of leaves off the trees, so the foliage may not be as vibrant in the wake of the event," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brian Lada.
Where leaves fall with the rain, some roads could be extra slick. Fallen leaves can also block storm drains and add to the risk of urban flooding.
The cold air will sweep in quickly in portions of upstate New York and northwestern New England. In these areas, the cold air will catch up to the back edge of the rain, causing the first accumulating snow of the season.

"Up to a few inches of snow can fall over the higher terrain and non-paved areas of the Adirondack, Green and White mountains from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer.
A few wet snowflakes or a dash of sleet can mix in over the higher terrain of the Alleghenies, Catskills, Poconos, Berkshires and Endless mountains for the first time this season.
Winds will ease, sunshine will return and temperatures will rebound a bit on Sunday afternoon in all but the northern parts of New York state and New England. Highs will be mainly in the 50s and 60s.
"A reinforcing push of cold air could bring a frost and freeze to some locations of the Northeast during next week," Abrams said.
Some areas untouched by frost so far this season in the mid-Atlantic could be reached during the middle part of next week.
The secondary push of cold air will sweep southeastward from Canada on Monday. There could be some wet snow mixed in with rain showers in parts of New York state and New England.

The Record Latest U.S. Hurricane and Major Hurricane Landfalls

Jonathan Belles
Published: October 20,2016

By late October and November, nearing the end of the Atlantic hurricane season, you might wonder if it is safe to assume there will be no hurricanes coming ashore in the U.S.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Looking back at history, the answer is "not necessarily."
Here are the three hurricanes that blasted their way ashore in November.

1. Hurricane Eight, 1861

  • Existed Nov. 1-3, 1861.
  • Maximum sustained winds at landfall: 80 mph.
  • Point of landfall: Near present day Surf City, North Carolina.
  • Also known as the "Expedition" hurricane because it caused havoc on a Civil War fleet of warships, sinking two (according to Ludlum 1963).

2. Hurricane Seven, 1935

  • Existed Oct. 30 through Nov. 8, 1935.
  • Maximum sustained winds at landfall: 100 mph.
  • Point of landfall: Near Miami, Florida.
  • Also known as the "Yankee" hurricane.

3. Hurricane Kate, 1985

  • Existed Nov. 15-23, 1985.
  • Maximum sustained winds at landfall: 100 mph.
  • Point of landfall: Near Mexico Beach, Florida (Florida Panhandle).
  • Five people died and widespread power outages were reported across the Florida Panhandle.
  • Kate is the latest hurricane to make landfall in the United States.
Hurricane Kate in the Gulf of Mexico.
The two latest Category 3 or stronger U.S. hurricane landfalls are:

1. The 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane

  • Existed Oct. 20-30, 1921.
  • Maximum sustained winds at landfall: 120 mph.
  • Point of landfall: Tarpon Springs, Florida (West-Central Florida).
(MORE: Hurricane Nicole Left Something Behind When It Departed Bermuda)

2. Hurricane Wilma, 2005

  • Existed Oct. 16-27, 2005.
  • Maximum sustained winds at landfall: 120 mph.
  • Point of landfall: Near Cape Romano, Florida (Southwest Florida).
Hurricane Wilma turning toward Florida.
The Atlantic Basin hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
Note that some of these systems reflect information post-reanalysis from the Hurricane Research Division at NOAA.

MORE: Late-Season Hurricanes

Santa Ana Winds Bring High Fire Danger and Hot Temperatures to Southern California

Chris Dolce
Published: October 20,2016

Santa Ana winds have returned to Southern California this week, creating an environment conducive to the rapid spread of wildfires. Hot temperatures have also engulfed the area, with highs soaring well into the 90s to near 100 degrees in some spots.
(MORE: Current Temperatures Map)

'Critical' Fire Danger Expected

As is typical during Santa Ana wind events, a strong high-pressure system has built across the interior West. This is sending offshore winds from the northeast through the canyons and passes located in the mountains of Southern California.
(MORE: Kagel Fire Threatens Los Angeles Homes)
When this weather pattern takes shape, it usually results in plummeting relative humidity levels and rising temperatures.
Humidity levels have dropped into the single digits and teens, and will remain extremely low into Thursday in parts of Southern California away from the coast.
Those low humidity levels, in combination with gusty winds and hot temperatures, will make conditions ripe for the potential of rapidly spreading wildfires, should any ignite. Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph are possible at times Thursday, with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph.
The winds will diminish on Friday, but hot and dry conditions will continue.
The National Weather Service in Los Angeles says critical fire danger is expected in some areas through Friday.
Fall is the time of year when Santa Ana winds make a return to Southern California. These wind events are most common between the months of September through March.
Wildfire danger is typically highest in the fall. This is because the vegetation is very dry since Southern California is coming out of its summer dry season.

Highs in the 90s to Near 100 Expected

Forecast Highs
The offshore wind flow and a building high-pressure ridge in the upper atmosphere will send temperatures well into 90s during the second half of this week.
Downtown Los Angeles may see highs in the low 90s through Friday. Although average highs are around 80 degrees this time of year, hotter temperatures well into the 90s and even low 100s can be experienced in October due to Santa Ana winds.
(FORECAST: Los Angeles | Riverside | San Diego)
Interior areas like Ontario and Riverside could see the mercury rise a bit higher into the middle and upper 90s or even 100 degrees.
Farther south, parts of the San Diego area may also see low 90s Thursday.
Cooler conditions will arrive in all of these areas over the weekend.
MORE: Western Wildfires

More Record Warmth Expected Thursday, But a Fall Reality Check is Incoming

Linda Lam
Published: October 20,2016

One more day of near-record high temperatures is expected in the South Thursday, before a fall reality-check arrives Friday into the weekend.
At least 51 daily record highs were set on Wednesday across 16 states, according to The Weather Channel meteorologist and weather producer, Greg Diamond. The total number of record highs since Saturday is now at least 195. In some areas, it has felt more like August than October.
Daily record highs were broken Wednesday in New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina, Greenville, South Carolina, and Birmingham, Alabama, just to name a few.
Wednesday's high in Birmingham was 91 degrees, making it the latest 90+ degree day on record, breaking the prior record of Oct. 17, 1897.
New York's JFK Airport reached 86 degrees Wednesday afternoon, breaking the previous record high by 11 degrees (75 degrees in 1965).
We have a full recap of all the incredible records, including temperatures topping the century mark in several locations, in our recap section near the bottom of this write-up.

Current Temperatures

Additional Record Highs Possible Thursday

Highs in the 70s and 80s will be plentiful in parts of the East and South on Thursday. Yes, even a few 90s are expected in the South.
Some additional record highs may be set, mainly in the Southeast.
Let's break down the day-by-day highlights:
(MAPS: 10-Day National High/Low Forecast)


  • 70s and low 80s will persist in parts of the mid-Atlantic States
  • 80s with a few low 90s will persist from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia.
  • Daily record highs are possible in the Deep South, southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont.
  • Potential record high cities (current daily record shown): Athens, Georgia (90 degrees) | Greenville, South Carolina (86 degrees) | Montgomery, Alabama (88 degrees)

Forecast Highs Compared To Average

Fall Reality Check Arriving

A cold front is currently sweeping away the record warmth in some areas, sending temperatures back to levels more typical of fall.

Forecast Highs
Temperatures have already trended closer to average in the nation's midsection. On Thursday, highs will be in the 40s, 50s and 60s in the Plains and Upper Midwest.
Friday, the South finally cools off, with highs in the 60s and 70s. Dewpoints will also drop, allowing the crisp fall air to return.
Much of the Northeast is in for a chilly weekend, with temperatures dropping below average. Some snow will fall in the higher elevations of the region. For more details, click the link below.
(MORE: Higher-Elevation Snow Ahead in the Northeast After Record-Warm Temperatures)

Record-Breaking October Heat Recap

Over 50 daily record highs were tied or broken on Wednesday across the East and South.
Among some of Wednesday's other record highs not listed above included:
  • Atlanta: 88 degrees
  • New Orleans: 92 degrees
  • Birmingham, Alabama: 91 degrees (Latest 90+ degree day on record, breaking the prior record of Oct. 17, 1897)
  • Knoxville, Tennessee: 88 degrees
  • McAllen, Texas: 100 degrees (Extends record for most 100-degree days in a year to 89 days; previous record was 78 days)
Over 40 daily record highs were tied or broken on Tuesday across the East and South.
Among some of Tuesday's other record highs not listed above included:
  • Louisville, Kentucky: 87 degrees
  • Montgomery, Alabama: 92 degrees
  • San Angelo, Texas: 97 degrees
  • Shreveport, Louisiana: 91 degrees
  • Tallahassee, Florida: 91 degrees
Monday, Dodge City, Kansas, set a new record high for the entire month of October on Monday, topping out at 101 degrees. Records date back to the late 1800s in the southwestern Kansas city. This broke the previous October record high of 99 degrees, set just the day before on Sunday, and tied their hottest temperature of this past summer.
A 100-degree high temperature was recorded in McAllen, Texas, on Monday. This was the latest 100-degree day on record there, surpassing the previous date of Oct. 15, 1957. Perryton, Texas (101), Gage, Oklahoma (102) and Garden City, Kansas (100) also reached the century mark Monday.
A few daily record highs that were set on Monday include:
Amarillo, Texas, topped out at 98 degrees on Sunday, making it the warmest day so late in the season there. It was also just one degree shy of tying their all-time October record high.
At least one location in Texas reached the triple digits on Sunday. The panhandle town of Perryton near the Oklahoma border was 102 degrees.
Slapout, Oklahoma, also hit 102 degrees on Sunday, making it the hottest temperature so late in the season for the entire state, according to the Oklahoma Climate Survey.
Several daily records were set in the Plains on Saturday, as well.
Record warm low temperatures were also set in ten states on Monday. Many of these records were broken by several degrees including:
  • Madison, Wisconsin only dropped to 65 degrees, previous record was 61 degrees.
  • Dubuque, Iowa only dipped to 69 degrees, previous record was 61 degrees.
  • Chicago, Illinois saw a low of 67 degrees, previous record was 63 degrees.
  • Kansas City, Missouri only dropped to 71 degrees, previous record was 67 degrees.
  • St. Louis, Missouri reached a low of 72 degrees, previous record was 66 degrees.
  • Paducah, Kentucky only dipped to 76 degrees, previous record was 64 degrees.
  • Wichita, Kansas only dropped to 70 degrees, previous record was 68 degrees.
  • Dallas, Texas recorded a low of 73 degrees, previous record was 72 degrees.
There were also records set for highest dew point so late in the year on Monday.
Rochester, Minnesota, reached a dew point of 68 degrees, breaking the previous record of 68 degrees from October 13, 1962. La Crosse, Wisconsin, tied the highest dew point recorded in October with a dew point of 70 degrees. This was also the highest dew point so late in the year, breaking the previous record of 70 degrees from October 15, 1962.
MORE: Autumn Sunsets

Typhoon Haima (Lawin) Targets Southeast China After Hammering the Northern Philippines

Jon Erdman
Published: October 20,2016

Typhoon Haima, is now headed for its final landfall in southeast China after bringing damaging winds, flooding rainfall and storm surge flooding to the northern Philippines.
(MORE: Haima/Lawin Turns Deadly in the PhilippinesHurricane Central)
Haima made landfall in the northern Philippines as a Category 4 equivalent storm, with estimated winds of 140 mph, making it the second typhoon of that intensity to strike the area in just a few days time.
Some lingering rainbands are expected on the eastern flank of Haima, known as "Lawin" in the Philippines, through Friday night in the northern Philippines. Scroll below for a full recap on the weather impacts in the Philippines.
Fortunately, Haima is passing well south of Taiwan, but some outer rainbands are still bringing squally weather along with high surf and possibly a tropical storm-force wind gust or two to the southern coast of Taiwan.

Current Storm Information, Infrared Satellite Image
Taiwan is typhoon-weary, having absorbed three strikes from Nepartak in July, Meranti in mid-September and Megi in late September, not to mention a glancing swipe from another September typhoon, Malakas.
Haima is now rounding the base of the upper-level high and is curling toward its final landfall in southeast China Friday, local time.
At the time of landfall Friday afternoon, local time, the center of Haima is expected to be east of Hong Kong, so also should be the strongest winds of the eastern eyewall although not by much. Any westward wobbles would bring higher winds to Hong Kong.
(INTERACTIVE: Wundermap Forecast Path)

Forecast Rainfall: Haima/Liwan
We can't rule out a swipe by the western eyewall over Hong Kong, potentially producing some downed trees, limbs and power outages.
(MORE: Countries Most Hit By Tropical Cyclones)
Beyond that, Haima will continue to curl inland to the north and weaken into Saturday.
As with most all tropical cyclones, heavy rainfall may trigger flash flooding. Parts of southeast China may pick up a foot of rain or more, locally.

Rainfall Forecast

Storm Recap

Microwave (85 GHz) satellite image of Super Typhoon Haima on October 18, 2016 at 8 a.m. EDT. The eyewall is shown as a dark red doughnut at center of circulation.
(U.S. Naval Research Lab)
Haima was born as a tropical depression south of Guam early on October 15 (local time) and became a typhoon just northeast of the Yap Islands the following morning.
Maximum sustained winds in Haima increased from 85 mph late Sunday morning to 160 mph by Tuesday morning (U.S. time), which means the typhoon has undergone rapid intensification. Rapid intensification is when maximum sustained winds increase by at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) in 24 hours or less.
(IMAGES: Stunning Imagery of Super Typhoon Haima)
The outflow of winds aloft exhausting the top of Haima, low wind shear and warm, deep ocean water set the stage for Haima's rapid intensification.
(MORE: Typhoon Alley...Where the Most Intense Tropical Cyclones Most Frequently Happen)
After topping out at Category 5 intensity late Tuesday-early Wednesday, Haima weakened a bit just before making landfall on northern Luzon Island.
PAGASA - the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration - said that the center of Haima, known as "Lawin" in the Philippines, came ashore around 11:00 p.m. local time Wednesday near Baguio Point in the Cagayan Province. Maximum sustained winds were 140 mph at that time, according to an advisory issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Reports from James Reynolds in Tuguegarao City show that the area was being lashed by strong winds and heavy rain just after midnight Thursday, local time.
Debris was flying through the streets of Tuguegarao City, according to storm chaser Josh Morgerman.
Baguio City, home to about 350,000 residents, picked up over 14 inches (361 millimeters) of rain Thursday alone. Tuguegarao City had picked up a storm total of 9.65 inches (245 millimeters) of rain through Thursday.
Wind data is somewhat sparse over the far northern Philippines. Laoag reported a peak gust to 55 mph Thursday. Undoubtedly, much stronger winds occurred near the landfall point in northeast Luzon.
Haima/Lawin was the first Category 4 or stronger typhoon to landfall in far northeast Luzon in just over five years, since Nalgae did so in September 2011.
Sadly, there have been almost two dozen other typhoons as strong to landfall in northeast Luzon since 1950.
Check back with us at for the latest on this typhoon threat.

MORE: Typhoon Megi Hits Taiwan, China (PHOTOS)

Winter 2016-17 Outlook: Weak La Niña May Bring Colder Temperatures to the East, Dry Conditions in the South

Linda Lam
Published: October 20,2016

Winter 2016-17 may bring colder-than-average temperatures to the East early on, but this winter may end up warmer than average overall, according to an outlook released by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
A weak La Niña is expected to develop, which would result in colder temperatures in the East and warmer temperatures in the West, which flips the pattern of the last several months, said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.
Last winter was the Lower 48's warmest December-February period in the 121 years on record, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.
(RECAP: Record Warmest U.S. Winter)
NOAA's winter outlook, also released Thursday, indicates that La Niña will also be a factor this winter. This would result in more preciptation in the northern states and less in the South, compared to last winter.
Here are the outlooks from both The Weather Company and NOAA.

The Weather Company Forecast

There are indications that the East may see colder than average temperatures this winter, especially earlier in the season.
However, climate computer models are depicting an atmospheric response to the expected weak La Niña in January, which would allow warmer temperatures in the East with colder conditions developing in the Pacific Northwest.
In the Southwest, there will most likely be persistent above-average temperatures, while the Pacific Northwest is likely to see the best chance for persistent cold, especially in January and February.
December 2016 - February 2017 temperature outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
Last year, El Niño was an important factor in the winter forecast. This year there is a good chance of a weak La Niña playing a role. However, the warm northeastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, a lack of background blocking and lingering warmth from El Niño also all need to be considered.
One winter that also featured a weak La Niña and warm sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Pacific is 1995-96, according to Crawford. However, there are differences that will likely make this winter warmer than 1995-96.
"The Pacific sea surface temperature pattern for the upcoming winter will likely be a fairly close match to that observed in 1995-96, a well-known stormy/cold winter in the East, but this colder signal will be strongly tempered by (1) significant warm atmospheric 'hangover' from recent historically strong El Niño and (2) reduced chances of high-latitude blocking," Crawford said.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)
There has not been high-latitude blocking, which locks in Arctic air, in the central and eastern U.S. in the last three winters, and that is not expected this winter either.
It is important to remember that even if it is a warmer-than-average winter there will still be surges of cold temperatures, along with impactful winter storms.
(MORE: Winter Storm Names 2016-2017)

NOAA's Forecast

The temperature outlook from NOAA agrees with TWC outlook that the best chance for above-average temperatures this winter is in the Southwest. However, there are differences in how far east and north the above-average temperatures will reach.
NOAA extends the chance for warmer-than-average temperatures through the Southeast and also introduces an area in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest where colder than average temperatures are a possibility.
Portions of the Pacific Northwest, Midwest and Northeast could have equal chance of experiencing above- or below-average temperatures.
December 2016 - February 2017 temperature outlook from NOAA.
In terms of preciptation, NOAA expects portions of the northern tier -- including portions of the Northwest, northern Plains and Great Lakes -- to see above-average precipitation this winter because of a more active northern jet stream.
(MORE: When the First Snow Usually Falls)
Much of the southern tier is expected to be drier than average, with the greatest chance of below-average precipitation from central Texas along the northern Gulf Coast into northern and central Florida.
This is not good news for portions of the South and Southeast, which are experiencing drought conditions. Alabama and Mississippi are experiencing abnormally dry conditions and almost 30 percent of Georgia is in extreme drought, according to the drought monitor released Oct. 20.
According to NOAA, "Drought is expected to persist and spread in the southeastern U.S and develop in the southern Plains. Drought improvement is anticipated in northern California, the northern Rockies, the northern Plains and parts of the Ohio Valley."
December 2016 - February 2017 precipitation outlook from NOAA.
In areas not covered in green or brown in the above map, there are equal chances of seeing below-or above-average precipitation.
According to NOAA, a La Niña winter could bring above-average snowfall around the Great Lakes and in the northern Rockies, with below average snowfall in the mid-Atlantic region.
The primary factors in both the precipitation and temperature outlooks from NOAA are the weak La Niña predicted to develop and climate forecast models. Global sea surface temperatures also were considered.
MORE: Mid-May Snow in Midwest, Northeast (PHOTOS)

Higher-Elevation Snow Ahead in the Northeast After Record-Warm Temperatures

Linda Lam
Published: October 20,2016

The record warmth of this week will soon be a distant memory as snow is expected in some of the higher elevations of the Northeast this weekend.
After very warm temperatures for mid-October, a pattern change is beginning to take place that will usher in more fall-like temperatures. It may even feel more like winter to some.
The source of these changes is a cold front that is approaching the Northeast with heavy rain. Flash flood watches are in effect for portions of central New York, central and western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio and northern West Virginia.
(MORE: Northeast Will Get Its Biggest Soaking in Months, But Is it Too Much of a Good Thing?)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

Big Changes Ahead

For those who prefer a warm, toasty fire to air conditioning, good news is ahead as a pattern change is on the way.
Temperatures will remain warm for this time of year through Friday in New England and the mid-Atlantic, but temperatures will not be as warm as earlier this week. By this weekend, temperatures will drop back to closer to average.
Temperatures will even be slightly below average in spots, beginning Friday. Lows will be up to 10 degrees colder than average into next week.
(FORECAST: Buffalo, New York | Philadelphia | Boston

Forecast Highs
These changes are courtesy of an upper-level trough that is moving across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. An area of low pressure, associated with this trough, will move through the Northeast, slowly moving northeastward into Canada this weekend.
This area of low pressure will deepen and northwesterly winds will allow cold air to surge southward. This will set the stage for the possibility of some snow in the higher elevations.
Moisture from a possible tropical system could be drawn northward, which may enhance precipitation in the Northeast.
(MORE: Watching a Disturbance Near the Bahamas)
As this system slowly exits the region, some rain and snow showers may linger in the mountains through this weekend.

Wintry Forecast
The first chance for snow showers will be in the Adirondacks and Catskills of New York, the Green Mountains of Vermont and the White Mountains of New Hampshire on Saturday. Lower elevations can expect rain.
(MORE: When the First Snow of the Season Typically Falls)
Lake-effect rain showers are possible with this system as well, with the potential for a dusting of snow for the Tug Hill Plateau, especially Saturday night.
Some locally heavy snow is even possible over the higher summits of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains through Sunday morning. Most areas, however, will see cold rain showers.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)

Snowfall Forecast
Sunday, additional light snow showers or flurries may be seen over the Adirondacks and into northern New England.
A few snowflakes may linger into Sunday night and Monday in far northern New England and northern New York.
Windy conditions are also expected this weekend, which could lead to some power outages, given the risk of wet snow and leaves still on trees.
High pressure is then expected to build across the region early next week, bringing drier weather and temperatures that likely will remain cool.

Record Warmth

Temperatures were up to 20 degrees above average in the Northeast Tuesday through Thursday. Highs reached 80 degrees as far north as Boston. These very warm October temperatures set numerous daily record highs.
On Thursday, a record high was recorded in Philadelphia (81 degrees) and tied at Washington D.C.'s Dulles Airport (83 degrees).
On Wednesday, record highs were set in New York City's Central Park (85 degrees), La Guardia Airport (86 degrees) and JFK Airport (86 degrees), as well as in Philadelphia (86 degrees), Baltimore (87 degrees) and Washington D.C.'s Dulles Airport (87 degrees).
On Tuesday, Binghamton, New York, set a new daily record high of 77 degrees, as well as a record warm low of 60 degrees. Other daily record highs included Albany, New York (84 degrees); Hartford, Connecticut (84 degrees); Newark, New Jersey (85 degrees); and Baltimore, Maryland (84 degrees).
Low temperatures were quite warm as well, with lows only dipping into the 50s and 60s. Given that we are halfway through fall, lows this mild are actually closer to average highs for this time of year.

What a Difference a Year Makes

Last year at this time, instead of breaking warm temperature records, it was cold enough for snow to be observed in portions of the region.
Much of Upstate New York and New England recorded a trace of snow Oct. 18, 2015. Syracuse measured 0.4 inches of snow and Binghamton saw 0.1 inches.

Fall and winter this morning. Woke up to a coating of snow in Cortland!
A trace of snow was reported as far south as northern Pennsylvania and as far east as Boston.
Low temperatures were in the 20s for much of Upstate New York and New England on Oct. 18 and 19. Boston even saw its first freeze as temperatures dropped to just below the freezing mark on Oct. 19.
MORE: Unique Ways To See Fall Foliage

Northeast Will Get Its Biggest Soaking in Months, But Is it Too Much of a Good Thing?

Brian Donegan
Published: October 20,2016

After suffering from drought conditions since late spring and summer, a promising forecast is finally in store for the Northeast over the next day or two. Periods of rain are expected through the first half of the weekend, and the rain could come down heavily at times, especially on Friday.
The higher elevations of Upstate New York and northern New England will likely see rain change to snow as colder air infiltrates the region, but for everyone else it will be a cold, soaking rain.
The source of this incoming moisture is a deepening area of low pressure and its associated cold front that is approaching the Northeast, which likely won't clear the region until late Saturday or early Sunday.
(MORE: Higher-Elevation Snow Ahead in the Northeast After Record-Warm Temperatures)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

Rainfall Outlook

The steadiest rain is expected to set up from western and central Pennsylvania into western, central and northern New York. At least 2 or 3 inches of rain should fall in these areas.
An even heavier band of rain will likely develop from north-central Pennsylvania into the Finger Lakes region of New York and extend through north-central New York and New York's North Country region. Three to 5-plus inches of rain are expected across these areas, while isolated amounts of over 5 inches are possible, especially east of Lake Ontario.

Additional Rainfall through Saturday
(MORE: Fall Isn't Always Calm; Be Aware of These Weather Threats)
Flash flood guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) is rather high since it has been so dry over the past few months. On average, the areas expected to see the heaviest rain would need roughly between 2.5 and 3.5 inches of rain in 6 hours or less to cause a flash flood.
This amount of rain is definitely feasible in a 6-hour period, especially where the heaviest band of rain sets up Friday, so flash flooding is certainly a possibility. The NWS has issued a flash flood watch for portions of central New York, central and western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio and northern West Virginia due to this potential.
So, although the Northeast does need this rain, it may become excessive at times. Remember to never drive through flooded water, should any flash flooding develop.

Drought Relief?

Roughly three-quarters of the Northeast is currently classified under abnormally dry and drought conditions, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.
The areas in most dire need of rain are western New York and eastern New England, as the National Drought Mitigation Center labels them in an extreme drought, the second-worst category of drought.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)
Red indicates extreme drought, the second-worst drought classification. Orange indicates severe drought, one step below extreme. Tan indicates moderate drought, the lowest drought classification. Yellow indicates abnormally dry conditions.
The amount of rain expected through Saturday will likely put a dent in these drought conditions across the Northeast. The drought isn't expected to be eliminated completely, but this will certainly be a step in the right direction.
The new drought monitor will be released by the National Drought Mitigation Center next Thursday.

MORE: Northeast Rainbows

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Drought is the Watchword as Winter 2016-17 Approaches

By: Bob Henson , 5:20PM,GMT on October 20,2016

After a year with a record number of billion-dollar flood disasters, the United States is now heading into a period where drought may be the leading concern, according to forecasters behind NOAA’s initial winter outlook for 2016-17 that was released Thursday. “The winter forecast doesn’t bode well for [many] areas around the nation experiencing drought,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in a press conference Thursday. The most confident signal in the outlooks (see Figures 2 and 3) is for warmer-than-average conditions across the Sun Belt, from California to Florida, and for drier-than-average conditions across the southern tier of states, especially from the Southern Plains to the Southeast.

A five-year drought continues to grip central and southern California, and a rapidly intensifying drought now stretches from Alabama to the western Carolinas, as evident in this week’s U.S. Drought Monitor. Parts of northern Alabama and Georgia have only recorded about half of their average rainfall over the last six months, according to the Drought Monitor. New England and New York are also grappling with serious, months-long drought, although heavy rains this weekend may provide some relief.

Figure 1. Sunlight reflects on the surface of Lake Purdy in Birmingham, AL, on Tuesday, October 11, 2016. Water levels surrounding the lake have dropped several feet due to a severe drought. Image credit: AP Photo/Brynn Anderson.

More room for surprises
The winter of 2015-16 largely followed expectations for a strong El Niño event, with two big exceptions: persistent dryness in the drought-plagued Southwest and unusual warmth that prevailed across nearly all of the U.S., including areas such as the Gulf Coast that trend cool during El Niño winters. This winter, we don’t have a strong El Niño or La Niña event shaping North American climate, so there is even more room for natural variability and the potential for surprises in the mix. In its most recent monthly advisory, issued on October 13, NOAA deemed it likely that a La Niña will develop by late autumn, but odds are just slightly better than even that it will persist through winter, and computer models agree that it should be a weak event if it does develop. Overall, NOAA’s winter outlook for the contiguous U.S. largely follows the playbook for La Niña, which typically favors relatively wet, cool conditions toward the north and relatively warm, dry weather toward the south.

Figure 2. NOAA precipitation outlook for winter 2016-17, expressed as the probabilities for wetter- or dryer-than-average conditions for the winter as a whole. The probabilities are expressed in thirds, so a region with 40% odds of an outcome has a better-than-average chance of that outcome. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Figure 3. NOAA temperature outlook for winter 2016-17, expressed as the probabilities for warmer- or colder-than-average conditions for the winter as a whole. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Could another cold Midwest/East winter be in the cards?
One line of research suggests that several winters of the 2010s that featured intense cold across parts of the U.S. Midwest and Northeast, such as 2013-14 and 2014-15, may be related to a chain of events that begins with above-average October snow cover in Siberia (facilitated in part by recent losses of Arctic sea ice in autumn north of Siberia). In this view, above-average snow cover in autumn fosters high atmospheric pressure over the region. In turn, this deflects the jet stream and eventually disrupts the circulation over the Arctic, allowing cold air masses to pour southward more easily by winter.

Judah Cohen, one of the most prominent exponents of this hypothesis, leads an effort at Atmospheric and Environmental Research to predict winter temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere. Snow cover has been advancing at a faster-than-usual pace this autumn in Siberia, according to Cohen. Based on this, as well as below-average sea ice extent across the Barents and Kara Seas and the lack of a strong ENSO signal in the mix, AER issued a preliminary winter 2016-17 outlook on October 19. The outlook favors warmer-than-average conditions across the U.S. Southwest and colder-than-average conditions from central Canada to the southeastern U.S., including most areas east of the Great Plains except for Maine (see Figure 4). Last winter, AER called for most of North America to be mild, in keeping with the strong El Niño that developed, but it expected below-average readings over the eastern U.S., where they didn’t materialize.

Figure 4. The outlook for departures from average temperature for the contiguous U.S. issued by Atmospheric and Environment Research on October 19, 2016. An update will be issued in November. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. October Siberian snow cover has so far this month advanced at an above normal rate. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming, and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter and cold temperatures--especially east of the Mississippi. Image credit: Judah Cohen, AER.

Meanwhile, The Weather Company called for readings to be above average for most of the contiguous U.S. during the winter of 2016-17 in an outlook released on September 23 (see Figure 5 below). Referring to the switch from El Niño to a weak La Niña, TWC chief meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford said: "The reversal of tropical forcing suggests that the coldest weather in the eastern U.S. may occur earlier in the winter, with increasing chances for warmth during the late winter.” Crawford added: “Climate model forecasts for winter are unusually warm, likely reflecting the excess post-El-Nino global warmth, and another very warm winter is not out of the question due to this factor alone."

Figure 5. Temperature outlook for winter 2016-17 released by The Weather Company on September 23. Image credit:

The cold winters of the 2010s in eastern North America may also have a link to the Pacific. Dennis Hartmann (University of Washington) emphasizes the role of warmth across parts of the tropical Pacific in generating an atmospheric “bridge” that can extend to cold, snowy conditions in the eastern U.S. and Canada. Hartmann and colleagues have investigated a pattern called the North Pacific Mode (NPM), which is distinct from the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NPM’s positive phase features warmer-than-average SSTs extending from the western Pacific across to much of the north and northeast Pacific, where a recurrent area of warm water dubbed “The Blob” has returned this fall. This positive phase of the NPM in wintertime tends to favor a strong upper-level ridge from the U.S. West Coast to Alaska (reducing the likelihood of storms affecting California) and a deep, cold trough across eastern Canada and the U.S. Midwest and Northeast, favoring intrusions of Arctic air. Hartmann discusses the NPM in more detail in a March 2015 post at

Hartmann has not yet analyzed the NPM for recent weeks, but he told me in an email: “The [current] tropical SST pattern is such as to force a high anomaly in the pressure in the midlatitude Pacific this winter, and that would give more ‘blob’ and a downstream anomaly like that of January 2014, all else being equal. So dry in California and cold in the East seems like a reasonable prediction, although the uncertainty is high because the atmosphere generates a lot of random variability unrelated to tropical SST.  It will be interesting to see what develops.”

Figure 6. The two most common sea surface temperature (SST) correlation patterns in Pacific Ocean north of 30°S over time, based on EOF (empirical orthogonal function) analysis, a technique used to break down the role of multiple potential factors. The first is the classic signal of El Niño and La Niña (together referred to as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO), while the second is the North Pacific Mode (NPM). The contour interval is 0.1, and the zero contour is white. Red and blue show correlations between anomalies of opposite sign. When red areas have above-average SSTs, blue areas have below-average SSTs, and vice versa. Image credit: Dennis Hartmann, University of Washington, and

Figure 7. Departure from average in sea surface temperature (SST, shown in degrees C) for the period October 9 through October 15, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL/PSD.

What makes a season?
It’s important to note that even a winter that’s overall warmer than average in the Midwest or Northeast may include a couple of fierce cold blasts and/or major snowstorms. Take 2015-16: even though it was the warmest winter on record for the contiguous U.S. as a whole, and a top-ten warmest winter from New Jersey through New England--including the warmest Christmas Day ever experienced by millions of East Coast residents--it also included the epic blizzard of January 20-22, 2016, which dumped more than two feet of snow from West Virginia to New York, and the brief but intense cold wave of mid-February 2016, which produced Boston’s coldest weather since the 1950s. It’s an open question whether people will remember the East Coast’s winter of 2015-16 as brutal or balmy. When asked at Thursday’s press conference whether we are likely to see a “memorable” winter, Mike Halpert responded: “That’s not really what our outlook is about.”

We’ll be back with out next post on Friday, including a wrap-up on Typhoon Haima, which was heading toward the southeast coast of China on Thursday after ravaging parts of the Northern Philippines. We are also keeping an eye on Invest 99L, the long-simmering system east of the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center gives 99L a 50% chance of briefly developing into a depression, and perhaps a subtropical or tropical storm, as it moves northward, eventually merging with a frontal system off the U.S. East Coast.

Bob Henson

Weather Underground National Forecast for Thursday,October 20,2016

By: nationalsummary , 10:00PM,GMT on October 19,2016

Weather Underground Forecast for Thursday,October 20,2016

A frontal system will bring active weather to the eastern third of the country on Thursday, while a Pacific system shifts over the Northwest.

A low pressure area will continue to deepen as it moves northeastward from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic. This system will usher moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms over the Northeast. Flash flooding will be a concern for Upstate New York, western New York, western Pennsylvania and northeast Ohio. A mixture of rain and snow will also be possible along the western periphery of the low pressure system, focusing over the upper Midwest. A cold frontal boundary associated with this system will extend southwestward from the Ohio Valley to the southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will fire up along and near this frontal boundary over the northern Mid-Atlantic, the Appalachians, the Midwest, the Tennessee Valley, the lower Mississippi Valley and the western Gulf Coast. Additionally, a tropical disturbance will bring chances of storms to southeast Florida.

Meanwhile, a cold frontal boundary will shift east northeastward across the Northwest. Light to moderate rain and high elevation snow will be possible in Washington, Oregon, northern Idaho and Montana. High pressure will keep conditions warm and dry across most of the Southwest on Thursday.

This Date in Weather History for October 20,2016 from

Weather History
For Thursday,October 20,2016
1770 - An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years. (David Ludlum)
1983 - Remnants of Pacific Hurricane Tico caused extensive flooding in central and south central Oklahoma. Oklahoma City set daily rainfall records with 1.45 inch on the 19th, and 6.28 inches on the 20th. (17th-21st) (The Weather Channel)
1987 - Cold arctic air invaded the Upper Midwest, and squalls in the Lake Superior snowbelt produced heavy snow in eastern Ashland County and northern Iron County of Wisconsin. Totals ranged up to 18 inches at Mellen. In the western U.S., the record high of 69 degrees at Seattle WA was their twenty-fifth of the year, their highest number of record highs for any given year. Bakersfield CA reported a record 146 days in a row with daily highs 80 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. In California, afternoon highs of 96 degrees at Redding and Red Bluff were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)
1989 - Forty-nine cities reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and 30s across much of the south central and southeastern U.S. Lows of 32 degrees at Lake Charles LA and 42 degrees at Lakeland FL were records for October, and Little Rock AR reported their earliest freeze of record. Snow blanketed the higher elevations of Georgia and the Carolinas. Melbourne FL dipped to 47 degrees shortly before midnight to surpass the record low established that morning. Showers and thunderstorms brought heavy rain to parts of the northeastern U.S. Autumn leaves on the ground clogged drains and ditches causing flooding. Up to 4.10 inches of rain soaked southern Vermont in three days. Flood waters washed 600 feet of railroad track, resulting in a train derailment. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Century old records fall as summerlike heat grips central, eastern US

By Renee Duff, Meteorologist
October 19,2016; 11:07PM,EDT
July-like heat baked the central and eastern portions of the United States early this week, putting century old record temperatures in jeopardy.
The heat expanded from the High Plains to the East Coast from Sunday to Wednesday.
"A strong area of high pressure combined with warm southwesterly winds have combined to bring record-high temperatures to much of the central and eastern U.S.," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Ryan Adamson.
In most cases, highs have generally been around 10 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit above average. In some cases, highs have reached 30 degrees above average.
Dozens of record-high maximum and minimum temperatures have been recorded during the warm spell. Some records broken or tied have stood for over a century.
On Monday, Dodge City, Kansas, reached 101 F, which smashed the previous record of 94 set in 1926. This is the first time the city has recorded a temperature at or above 100 during the month of October.
The heat then expanded eastward on Tuesday. Baltimore; Hartford, Connecticut; Newark, New Jersey; Evansville, Indiana; Nashville, Tennessee; New Orleans; and Huntsville, Alabama, are only a handful of cities that broke records on Tuesday.
A hiker takes in the fall colors as he makes his way along the Indian Ladder Trail on a warm fall day at John Boyd Thacher State Park, Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2016, in Voorheesville, N.Y. (AP Photo/Mike Groll)
Philadelphia and New York City came up 1 degree shy of breaking records that date back to 1908 and 1928, respectively.
More records may fall across the East on Wednesday, before conditions will cool down into the weekend.
The ongoing drought across the Northeast and interior Southeast has been an extra factor in amplifying the heat.
With the ground being so dry, the sun's energy can go directly into heating the ground as opposed to drying moisture from the ground, Adamson stated.

Maybe even more impressive than the warmth during the day have been the mild nights.
"Many places have seen low temperatures at or above the normal-high temperatures for the middle of October," Adamson explained.
"With how warm the nights have been, the temperature has not had to rise very far to reach record or near-record levels during the day," he added.
The warmth may dull some of the fall colors across the region.
US winter forecast: Frequent snow to blast Northeast
Jack-o'-lanterns will be smaller in northeastern US this fall as hot, dry summer shrinks pumpkins
Soaking rain to end unusual warmth in northeastern US

"Mild days and cool nights are usually ideal when it comes to the best foliage colors," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Jordan Root.
While the summerlike weather may be unwelcome to those who enjoy crisp fall days and chilly nights, the sunny, warm conditions have provided an excellent opportunity to go hiking, leaf-peeping and pumpkin-picking.
According to the Smoky Mountains fall foliage prediction map, leaf color is peaking along the I-95 corridor from Boston to New York City and Philadelphia, while interior portions of the Northeast are past peak color.
AccuWeather meteorologists predicted a warm fall in the East earlier this year, and this trend is expected to continue into November.
"Overall, temperatures look to remain above normal despite periodic cooler days," AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Ed Vallee said.