Friday, November 21, 2014

October 2014: Earth's Third Consecutive Warmest Month on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42PM,GMT on November 21,2014





October 2014 was the warmest October on record, and the year-to-date-period January - October was Earth's warmest such period since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Thursday. NOAA also rated the past 12 months--November 2013 through October 2014--as the warmest consecutive 12-month period among all months since records began in 1880. "It is becoming pretty clear that 2014 will end up as the warmest year on record," said Deke Arndt, climate monitoring chief for NCDC in an interview with Associated Press. NASA also rated October 2014 as the warmest October on record, tied with 2005. October is the fifth month of 2014 ranked by NOAA as the warmest on record; May, June, August and September 2014 were also the warmest such months on record, and April 2014 was the second warmest April on record. Global ocean temperatures during October 2014 were the warmest on record. This marks the sixth month in a row (beginning in May 2014) that the global ocean temperature broke its monthly temperature record. Global land temperatures in October 2014 were the 5th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in October 2014 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 9th or 1st warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2014, the warmest October for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth in much of southern South America and large parts of southern and western Australia contributed to the record high average land surface temperature observed during October in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, record warmth was also observed in parts of southern Europe, the western coastal regions of the United States, and much of Far East Russia. On the other hand, parts of central Siberia observed temperatures 4 - 5°C (7 - 9°F) below average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .


Figure 2. Global departure of temperature from average for each year since 1880. The ten warmest years in Earth's recorded history are shown in red; after a relatively cool start, 2014 is now on pace the break the warmest year record set in 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

One billion-dollar weather disaster in October 2014: India's Cyclone Hudhud
One billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the Earth during October 2014: India's Cyclone Hudhud, according to the October 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This brings the global number of billion-dollar weather disasters for the first nine months of 2014 to 22. This is well behind the record-setting pace of 2013, which had 36 billion-dollar weather disasters by the end of October, and ended up with a record 41 by the end of the year.



Tropical Cyclone Hudhud powered ashore near Visakhapatnam in the Andhra Pradesh state of India on Sunday, October 12 as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph. With damage estimated at $11 billion, Hudhud was by far the most expensive tropical cyclone in India's history, and their third most expensive weather-related natural disaster, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. The previous most expensive Indian tropical cyclone was the October 28, 1999 Orissa Cyclone, which killed 9,843 people and did $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars.) India has had just one other billion-dollar tropical cyclone disaster, the November 8, 1996 cyclone that killed 708 and did $1.5 billion in damage (1996 dollars.) The staggering damage from Hudhud came just one month after India's most expensive natural disaster in its history--torrential monsoon rains of over 12" (305 mm) that lashed the India-Pakistan border region of Kashmir and Jammu Provinces on September 3 - 7, triggering devastating floods that swept through the mountainous region, killing over 600 people and doing $16+ billion in damage. India's previous most expensive natural disaster was the $11.6 billion (2014 dollars) in damage from the July 1993 monsoon floods.


Figure 3. The Vishakapatnam airport building that was damaged by Cyclone Hudhud in Vishakapatnam, India, as seen on Oct. 13, 2014. (AP Photo/Press Trust of India)

Hudhud's death toll was relatively low
Hudhud killed 68 people in India, but after dissipating, the storm's remains continued to the north and reached Nepal on October 14, unleashing a terrible snowstorm in the Himalayas that killed at least 43 people. According to Andrew Freedman of mashable.com, it was the worst disaster in the history of Nepal's mountain-climbing industry. However, the total death toll from Hudhud was extremely low in comparison to similar-strength cyclones that have hit the coast of India in recent decades. The October 28, 1999 Orissa Cyclone, which hit the coast just north of where Hudhud did, was also a Category 4 storm, but killed 9,843 people. Thankfully, due to improved warnings, civil defense efforts and awareness, the days of tropical cyclones killing 1000+ people in India are likely over.

El Niño conditions grow stronger
Remarkably, the record-warm global sea surface temperatures over the past six months have occurred in the absence of El Niño, a large-scale warming of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that historically has been present whenever record global ocean temperatures have occurred. October 2014 officially featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, but sea surface temperatures rose to 0.5°C above average in mid-October in the so-called Niño 3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months (each month being a 3-month average) for an El Niño event to be declared. The warmth in the Niño 3.4 region has increased into mid-November, reaching 0.8°C above average this week. Most models predict El Niño will develop in late 2014 and continue into early 2015, and NOAA is continuing its El Niño Watch, giving a 58% chance of an El Niño developing this winter. If an El Niño does emerge, it is likely to be a weak event. Wunderblogger Steve Gregory took has a detailed look on the status of El Niño and the likely winter weather for December - February in his Thursday, November 20, 2014 post.

Arctic sea ice falls to 6th lowest October extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during October 2014 was the 6th lowest in the 36-year satellite record and was similar to October 2013 levels, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Most spectacular weather videos of October
Nicolaus Wegner's Stormscapes 2 video is the most impressive collection of time-lapse severe storm footage I've ever seen. His 7-minute time-lapse compilation of his May - September 2014 adventures in Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Colorado feature an impressive rainbow at 0:40, an incredible orange cumulonimbus at 4:00, a sequence of spectacular funnel clouds and tornadoes beginning at 5:10, and some stunning mammatus clouds at 6:04. Highly recommended.

Commentary
Earth's temperature so far in 2014 has been the warmest ever recorded. This comes despite the absence of an El Niño event, which is usually required in order for a new temperature record to be set. If NOAA's predicted 58% chance of an El Niño event this winter verifies, we could easily have two consecutive warmest years on record--2014 and 2015. Opponents of climate action have pushed the idea that Earth's climate has not warmed since 1998, but that is false assertion that uses a cherry-picked year in an attempt to confuse people about the long-term climate warming that is occurring. Earth's climate is warming, and based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that humans are responsible. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.


Video 1. We used to set global cold records every few years, but that hasn't happened since 1909. Video commentary is available at Climate Central.

Jeff Masters

Weather Underground National Forecast for Friday,November 21,2014

By: nationalsummary , 11:00PM,GMT on November 20,2014





Weather Underground Forecast for Friday,November 21,2014

 


A strong Pacific system will impact the Northwest on Friday, while stormy weather will continue across the southern tier of the country.

A strong Pacific system will approach the West Coast on Friday. This system will usher moderate to heavy rain across Oregon and Washington starting in the late morning. The heaviest precipitation will develop along western facing mountain slopes. High elevation snow showers will impact the Cascades, while afternoon and evening snow showers will spread across the northern Rockies. In addition, light scattered showers will push southeastward over parts of southern California, while a light mixture of rain and snow will be possible across the Great Basin.

Just to the east, an onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico will trigger rain and thunderstorms across the western Gulf Coast, the southern Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe thunderstorms will be possible over central Texas as warm, muggy air mass collides with a cold, arctic air mass. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail, dangerous straight line winds and isolated tornadoes. There will also be a slight chance of freezing rain over the central third of the country.

Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will push bitter cold air over the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes. Lake effect snow will remain a threat downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Snow showers are expected to wind down by Friday afternoon and evening.

This Date in Weather History for November 22,2014 from weatherforyou.com

Weather History
For Saturday,November 22,2014
 
 
 
1641 - An observer at Boston, MA, recorded a great tempest of wind and rain from the southeast all night, as fierce as a hurricane, and thereupon followed the highest tide which we have seen since our arrival here . (David Ludlum)
1957 - Extremely destructive Santa Ana winds blew from Oxnard to San Diego and inland parts of southern California. The high winds produced a 28,000 acre brush fire on a 40-mile front west of Crystal Lake. People were ordered off streets in some areas due to flying debris. (21st-22nd) (The Weather Channel)
1987 - Eight cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Elkins, WV, reported a low of 5 degrees above zero. Gale force winds continued along the Northern Atlantic Coast. (The National Weather Summary)
1988 - Wet and windy weather prevailed across the western U.S., with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. Winds gusted to 62 mph at Vedauwoo WY, and reached 75 mph at Tillamook OR. Shelter Cove CA was drenched with 4.37 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - Strong northerly winds produced squalls along the shore of Lake Michigan, with heavy snow in extreme southeastern Wisconsin. Milwaukee WI received nine inches of snow, and in Racine County there were more than one hundred automobile accidents. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

This Date in Weather History for November 21,2014 from weatherforyou.com

Weather History
For Friday,November 21,2014
 
 
1798 - A four day storm was in progress in the northeastern U.S. The storm dropped a foot of snow on New York City and New Haven, and as much as three feet in Maine and New Hampshire. The snowstorm ushered in a long and severe winter, in some places the ground remained covered with snow until the following May. (David Ludlum)
1967 - Excessive rains in southern California caused the most severe flooding and the most damaging mmud slidesin 33 years. Downtown Los Angeles received eight inches of rain, and 14 inches fell in the mountains. (David Ludlum)
1985 - Hurricane Kate made landfall during the evening hours near Mexico Beach, FL. Wind gusts to 100 mph were reported at Cape San Blas FL. It was the latest known hurricane to hit the U.S. so far north. (The Weather Channel)
1987 - Squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region and the Upper Ohio Valley produced 14 inches of snow at Snowshoe WV, and nearly eight inches at Syracuse NY. Eleven cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 21 degrees at Pinson AL, 9 degrees at Syracuse NY, and 8 degrees at Binghamton NY. Gale force winds lash the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast, and the strong northwesterly winds produced wind chill readings as cold as 30 degrees below zero. Winds gusting to 60 mph at Trumansburg NY toppled a chimney onto a nearby truck. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - High winds accompanied rain and snow in the northeastern U.S. Caribou ME received eight inches of snow in six hours, and Fort Kent ME was blanketed with a total of fourteen inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - The storm which produced thunderstorms and high winds in the northeastern U.S. the previous day, produced snow and high winds in New England, with blizzard conditions reported in Maine. Winds gusted to 55 mph at Boston MA, and reached 58 mph at Augusta ME, and hurricane force winds were reported off the coast of Maine. Snowfall totals ranged up to 18 inches at Vanceboro ME, with 17 inches at South Lincoln VT. There were thirty-five sstormrelated injuries in Maine. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Buffalo Area Snow Forces Delay, Relocation of Bills Game as Roads Remain Restricted

By Katy Galimberti, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
November 21,2014; 10:58PM,EST
 
 
The mammoth amount of snow that fell across areas around Buffalo, New York, has caused extreme travel delays and frustrations for area residents.
With anywhere from 4 to 7 feet of snow in the Buffalo area and in other areas upstate, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo declared an ongoing state of emergency for Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Franklin, Genesee, Herkimer, Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego, Wyoming and contiguous counties.
Crews worked around the clock to clear roads and rescue trapped motorists. Officials also ordered a travel ban to keep roads uncluttered so emergency vehicles and plows could move more easily.
The travel bans have created headaches for the Buffalo Bills organization and the National Football League as the Bills vs. Jets game was set to take place on Sunday at the team's complex in Orchard Park, New York.
Instead, the game will be played roughly 250 miles west at Ford Field in Detroit and will kick off at 7 p.m. EST Monday.


View image on Twitter
The view from inside Ralph Wilson Stadium on Friday morning. Photos > http://bufbills.co/vNskdE 

Early in the week when the NFL was still contemplating the feasibility of allowing the Bills to host the game, the team took to social media to enlist help clearing out Ralph Wilson Stadium.
According to Bills VP of Operations and Guest Experience Andy Major, 220,000 tons of snow had to be removed from the stadium.
However, plans to have fans help remove snow from the stadium have been delayed, the team announced Friday afternoon.
RELATED:
State of Emergency Ongoing in Snowbound Western NY
AccuWeather Winter Weather Center
WATCH: Thundersnow Rumbles Over Storm-Blasted Buffalo Suburbs


Sitting in Erie County, one of the hardest-hit areas, the complex and surrounding roads are in an area where road travel is still prohibited. Only emergency vehicles are allowed to be on the roads.
According to the Bills, 85 percent of the team lives in southern Buffalo suburbs where snow piled up to mountainous totals. The team has not been able to practice over the week due to the ban on travel and general hazardous conditions in the area.
Despite the travel bans and the fact that many players were stuck, the Bills were able to round up the entire squad and successfully depart for Detroit.
Several players, who were unable to drive, had to be picked up on snowmobiles Friday afternoon in order to join the rest of the team to depart for the airport.


View image on Twitter
@ESPNNFL Buffalo Bills are Detroit Bound.

Bills President Russ Brandon described there being a "disadvantage" as normal operations have been compromised.
"They haven't been able to work out, practice, proper nutrition and hydration all plays a big part of the performance on Sundays," he said in a conference call. "Those are concerns we all have."
Brandon said the team is working with the NFL on a "variety of logistics" as the situation remains fluid.
All season ticket holders will have their accounts credited towards next season, though refunds are available upon request. Fans who purchased single-game tickets will be issued refunds.
Brandon explained that the next scheduled home game could also be in jeopardy.
The Bills are set to take on the Cleveland Browns on Nov. 30 and team officials are worried the snow removal process could prove too demanding to be done in time.
While much of the Buffalo area remains in a standstill, local officials are scrambling to remove as much snow as possible in neighborhoods and on roads as well.
On Thursday morning, local enforcement held a press conference encouraging residents to follow instructions in order to stay safe in such volatile conditions.
A snow plow attempts to cut through the thick blanket of snow on a major Buffalo area highway on Nov. 20. (Flickr Photo/governorandrewcuomo)
Erie Deputy County Executive Richard Tobe advised that the community should continue to be smart, stay at home and observe the driving bans.
He said that hundreds, if not thousands, of cars were stranded across the community on main and secondary roadways. In attempts to avoid crowded roadways, numerous tractor trailers diverted to secondary, smaller roadways which also were completely covered with thick snow.
Roadways were littered with cars and trucks that became stuck as intense snow fell over the greater Buffalo area. (Flickr Photo/governorandrewcuomo)
Some of those trucks were dug out on Thursday as crews could maneuver through roadways easier. Still, officials warn residents to stay off the street so the rest of the vehicles can be recovered.
According to the governor's office, 526 plows with 1,247 operators and supervisors were activated to handle the immense snow amounts.
One resident captured the snow piled on top of her residence as the combined snow on the ground seems to engulf the home. (Photo/Kassie Tamulski)
"This storm has made everyone miserable," Kassie Tamulski said. "And we need to desperately get this snow off but it is so hard to. I'm here by myself and tried my best to do what I can. But people don't understand how hard it is to do so."

On Social Media
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Lions offering free tickets to Bills-Jets game moved to Detroit after heavy snow in Buffalo: ow.ly/EHc82 pic.twitter.com/YV0ChCTYXg
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Bills Coach to team: “Men, thanks to snow, we’re leaving miserable Buffalo. Pack your bags. We’re heading to…DETROIT?!"
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Buffalo Bills rave about #Detroit @Lions' hospitality after team lands in Motor City for @nyjets game s.mlive.com/kuilF0B @MLive
2h
 

How Much is Too Much: Heavy Snowfall Leads to Numerous Roof Collapses in NY

November 21,2014; 10:56PM,EST
 
 

A New York National Guardsman removes snow from the roof of the Eden Heights Assisted Living Facility in West Seneca, N.Y., Nov. 19, 2014. The airman is assigned to the 107th Airlift Wing based in Niagara Falls, N.Y. Photo by U.S. National Guard photo by Maj. Mark Frank
With the colossal snow totals that have amounted across the Great Lakes area, residents and local businesses have been warned of the possibility of collapsing roofs, as additional weight can compromise a building's structural integrity.
The Buffalo News reports at least 30 roof collapses have occurred since Wednesday, Nov. 19. There have been no injuries related directly to roof collapses, though two elderly patients died after being transported from the Garden Gate Health Care Facility in Cheektowaga, New York.
Though a small amount of rooftop snow can act as an insulator during cold winter months, an excessive amount can cause structural damage or collapse.
Determining how much snow is too much snow depends on the shape and age of the rooftop.
If a roof is pitched or slanted and in fairly good condition, heavier snow may be less of a problem. However, older and flatter roofs could easily succumb to the weight of the snow and fail.
Mark Settlemyer, left, gets help clearing snow from the roof of his mother's house from Ken Wesley on Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2014, in Lancaster, N.Y. Lake-effect snow pummeled areas around Buffalo for a second straight day, leaving residents stuck in their homes as officials tried to clear massive snow mounds with another storm looming. (AP Photo/Mike Groll)
"As snow sits on roofs, especially flat ones, it compacts and becomes more dense," AccuWeather Meteorologist Mark Paquette said. "When snow and ice falls on it, it becomes heavier."

A cold rain can also lead to heavier snow and more weight on a rooftop because when the rain falls it is then absorbed by snow already on the rooftop. As a result, the snow becomes even heavier than it was before the rain.
If the snow becomes too heavy, it can weaken the internal structure of a roof and cause damage or even cause the roof to collapse completely.

The type of snow that falls can also contribute to the likeliness of a roof collapse.
"There are different types of snow as well that can cause various damage," Paquette said. "A lighter, fluffier snow that falls with cold temperatures is a much different story than a wet, heavy snow with sleet and rain."
The more dangerous type of snow is the wetter, heavier snow due to its increased water content. This type of snow is most common around areas in southern New England.
To prevent a roof collapse or damage due to snowfall, keep tools handy that allow for timely and easy snow removal after a storm.

On Social Media
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Eye Opener: Americans dig out from record storm - Heavy snow collapses roofs and forces the NFL to change its... fb.me/1E439OACH
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Significant threat of a roof collapse in #Buffalo homes as a result of several feet of heavy snow piled on top @CNN: pic.twitter.com/D5GsxJ4HVh
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Removing snow completely from a roof can result in damage to the roof covering & could lead to leaks/damage. Leave at least 2" on roof. #WNY
Scott Sabol
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High temps in Buffalo will rise into the 50s compacting the heavy snow causing more roof collapses, flooding pic.twitter.com/Yl1ABMaEpZ
 

Seattle: Wet Weather to Continue Through the Weekend

By Michael Kuhne, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
November 21,2014; 10:50PM,EST
 
 
A wet weather pattern will linger in Seattle as a series of weak storm systems creep in from the Pacific through the weekend.
While some sunshine can be expected throughout the day on Saturday, a chance for showers and temperatures hovering around 50 F will keep the area damp and cool.

Those heading out to watch the Oregon State Beavers face off against the Washington Huskies at Husky Stadium should keep an umbrella and jacket on hand.
RELATED:
Detailed Seattle Forecast
Seattle Interactive Radar
Seattle MinuteCast

The end of the weekend is expected to remain breeze and wet with periods of rain during the day on Sunday. Folks who plan on seeing the Seattle Seahawks take on the Arizona Cardinals Sunday, will want to pack a rain poncho or jacket. Periods of rain will likely occur during the game.
Similar conditions are expected for the new week as more storms move into the region.
Looking ahead into the new week, temperatures will remain in the lower 50s on Monday with a chance for rain each day through the middle of the week.
Temperatures will climb slightly on Tuesday, but it will remain breezy and cool. Wind gusts of 12-25 mph can be expected throughout the day.
AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Chyna Glenn contributed content to this article.

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Chicago NWS Alert: Freezing Rain Advisory issued November 21 at 8:02PM CST until November 22 at 9... 1.usa.gov/1vxFzfR #accuweather
3h
 

New Tropical Threat for Western Pacific Next Week

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist
November 21,2014; 10:44PM,EST
 
 
Following a quiet period of weather in the Western Pacific Basin, a new tropical threat could develop next week with potential impacts for the Philippines.
The area between the Philippines and Guam is one of the most favorable for tropical development during the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere as the jet stream is located farther south across Asia, limiting the threat of tropical cyclones farther north.
An area of showers and thunderstorms will track from southeast of Guam westward into the Philippine Sea early next week moving into an area with relatively low wind shear and warm waters capable of fostering tropical cyclone development.

This area of showers and thunderstorms will be moving at a rapid pace to the west which could hinder its ability to organize into a named tropical cyclone, as showers and thunderstorms would struggle to consolidate around a low-level center.
Regardless of development, this cluster of showers and thunderstorms will track into the Philippines during the middle of next week.
RELATED:
Asia Winter Forecast
First Snow of Season for Parts of Eastern Europe
Philippines Weather Center

The main impact appears to be the potential for flooding downpours; however, mudslides and localized wind damage cannot be ruled out at this stage, as the impacts will vary depending on the ultimate strength and organization of this potential tropical cyclone.
Another factor that could lead to a greater risk of flooding is that daily showers and thunderstorms from this weekend into next week will saturate the ground in advance of the tropical downpours expected to arrive midweek.

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Winter Coats Not Needed In Sochi
The 2014 Winter games on Friday and Saturday will be accompanied by 60 degree weather.
Elliot Abrams
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Chicago NWS Alert: Freezing Rain Advisory issued November 21 at 4:27PM CST until November 22 at 9... 1.usa.gov/1xAAClM #accuweather
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Chicago, NYC Among Weather Trouble Spots for Weekend Thanksgiving Travel

By , Expert Senior Meteorologist
November 21,2014; 10:42PM,EST
 
 
A shifting weather pattern will bring a wide variety of weather across the nation for travel during the week of Thanksgiving, ranging from springlike warmth to winterlike cold with areas of severe thunderstorms, rain, snow and sunshine.
While no giant cross-country snowstorms are forecast, there will be weather trouble spots that could slow roadway travel or delay flights.
In a press release by the American Automobile Association (AAA), an estimated 46.3 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home during Thanksgiving with 41.3 million traveling by automobile and 3.6 million traveling by airlines.

This Weekend


A storm with mostly rain will ride a surge of springlike air from Texas to the Great Lakes and the Northeast this weekend.
The risk of severe thunderstorms including the potential for a few tornadoes will push eastward across the South during the weekend.
The onset of the rain will begin as a small amount of freezing drizzle in parts of the Midwest on Saturday. A thin layer of black ice can make for slippery spots for a time in Chicago, Detroit and Indianapolis.
RELATED:
AccuWeather.com Winter Weather Center
Springlike Relief to Follow Winter's Early Debut in Eastern Half of US
Severe Weather to Threaten South as Thanksgiving Travel Begins

The combination of rain, fog and low cloud ceilings can lead to travel delays from St. Louis and Chicago to Atlanta and Charlotte on Sunday. Similar problems will shift to Detroit, Pittsburgh, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia and New York City Sunday night.
Farther west, rainy weather will slow travel along the Interstate 5 corridor in the Northwest this weekend.
Farther inland in the Northwest, an area of snow will push southeastward with slippery travel along portions of I-15, I-25 and I-84, during Saturday into Sunday. The snow is forecast to stop short of Denver.

Early Next Week


Warmth that surges into the eastern half of the nation will be swept away in the Midwest and whittled away in the East.
During the first part of next week, showers and thunderstorms will occur near the I-95 corridor.
The steadiest rain will lift northward through Boston and the balance of New England on Monday.
Downpours are forecast to linger in parts of Florida beyond Monday.
As the colder air sweeps eastward through the Midwest Monday into Tuesday, areas of snow will develop, followed by a freeze-up of wet and slushy areas. A few inches of snow are possible around Minneapolis. Bands of lake-effect snow will develop.
More lake-effect snow could fall on areas hit hard by feet of snow this past week and flooding that may follow from Sunday to Monday.
Farther west, an area of snow will redevelop in parts of the northern Rockies, that may transition to a wintry mix and rain in some areas.

Wednesday


The Wednesday before Thanksgiving is the biggest travel day of the year across the nation, and it appears the weather will cooperate for much of the nation. There are some concerns, however.
A storm just offshore over the Atlantic Ocean will have to be watched for a track farther west. Temperatures will have not fallen enough to bring snow to the I-95 swath, but there is a chance of rain along a large part of the highway.
According to Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno, "Depending on the track of that storm, there could be rain on Wednesday, that may end as snow in some areas of the mid-Atlantic and New England Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day."
Patchy snow may also affect part of the northern Plains and the Upper Midwest on Wednesday.
As cold air holds over much of the Central states and creeps into the Appalachians, most areas from the Rockies to the West Coast will be free of precipitation and generally sunny on Wednesday. Some rain may affect western Washington state.

Thanksgiving Day

On Thanksgiving Day, look for the cold to intensify over the Midwest with spotty snow, including lake-effect snow.
The Atlantic Seaboard and part of the interior South will trend colder. There is a chance that storm at sea may affect New England with snow and rain.
The vast majority of the West will be warm with some sunshine.

On Social Media
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Travel plans this weekend? Winter storm to bring areas of strong winds, heavy snow & freezing rain across the west! wrh.noaa.gov
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Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement for our area.⛄️ Rain turning to 10-15cm of snow! #yxe BSAFE pic.twitter.com/qcPUA2LZM3
Kathy Orr
 

Winter Update: Cold in Midwest, East to Ease in Early December

By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
November 21,2014; 10:40PM,EST
 
A blast of frigid air is whipping the eastern half of the nation this week, though relief is in the way. (Photo/AccuWeather Facebook Fan Laura Kosht Ice)
A shift in the weather pattern in early December will deliver some relief for the 200 million people across the United States being blasted by bitter air.
Though winter is certainly on its way, the change in seasons will become more gradual for areas like the Midwest and Northeast in the beginning of December.
The recent cold blast, which is more typical of January than November, can be linked, in part, to the significant cold air and snow stretching across Siberia.
The polar flow that came from the cold air building over Siberia's snowpack sent a frigid air mass southward, according to AccuWeather.com Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok.
RELATED:
AccuWeather.com Winter Weather Center
Thanksgiving Travel Forecast: Storm May Slow Early Travelers Along I-95
Second Round of Lake-Effect Snow to Bury Upstate New York Further

"The snowpack into northern Canada was impressive, too, so it wasn't able to modify the temperatures. The cold air just kept coming," he said.
"It set the stage for significant, record-breaking cold in the United States, about three weeks ahead of schedule."
In the South this week, the cold sent Atlanta's highs into only the upper 30s. The city's lows fell into the lower 20s, a 20-plus-degree departure from normal.
In the Midwest, Chicago's highs reached only the mid-20s with lows in the teens. Departures from normal ranged from 15 to 20 degrees.

A period of relief is in store as the cold weather pattern breaks down near Thanksgiving, but it will be short-lived. Temperatures will temporarily rebound to springlike levels, before turning cold again at the middle of next week.
In early December, however, a milder flow of Pacific air will replace the long-standing frigid air masses. The air will be more concentrated from the Pacific than from the pole, which will have a big impact on temperatures across the United States, Pastelok said.
"The weather will revert to a normal pattern near the Arctic."
The lack of Arctic intrusions will allow temperatures to climb from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast and Carolinas.
At times, temperatures in Chicago will hover 4-7 degrees above normal with highs in the low to mid-40s.

Farther east, in New York City, temperatures in early December will run 4-8 degrees above normal.
"This warmer air will arrive in time for the first weekend of December in the Midwest and East," Pastelok said.
Warmer-than-normal water temperatures off the Eastern Seaboard will reinforce the higher air temperatures but could alter the track of storms this winter, pushing them farther inland, Pastelok said.
For the winter season in general, this will allow for more changeover systems along the I-95 corridor, while the bulk of the snow will center on the I-81 corridor and westward.

On Social Media
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#Winter has come a bit early this year & cold weather pet safety is vital. Here are some winter tips from the #AVMA ow.ly/EBnvj
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@DonnieWahlberg hey sunshine❤️how's your day going? You keeping warm in this nasty early winter cold weather that came too soon�� brrrrr xoxo
 
 
 
  • Ryan Quick
    Accuweather is more interested in clicks than science. Becoming too commercialized. If you are relying on forecasting models past say, 10 days as the basis for this article you are using poor forecasting. The last and current arctic outbreak were not picked up by models until about 7-9 days out. Other, more science based meteorologists however had been calling for it for several weeks. Need to consider the Stratospheric warming event that is occurring earlier this year than last, the warm waters also rebuilding off the coast of Alaska, Siberian Snow Cover and more. Don't just rely on models, it makes your forecasts look foolish.
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Oakville, Ontario
      You definitely could be on to something there. This is why several warmup forecasts this year were a bust. But I am guessing at least a few very mild days in the 1st half of December.
    • Ryan Quick
      Here is a good read by not only a meteorologist but a scientist http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/a-major-split-in-the-polar-vortex
    • Devin Plourde · Top Commenter
      EXACTLY. This forecast for 10+ days out in December is setting itself up for miserable failure. All of the long range models are all over the place for 10+ days out!! And, to be it all, they're speaking definitively! Saying that early December WILL be very warm, 10+ days out, as if it's set in stone. That shouldn't be done even when all the models are saying the same thing, never mind in this case with all the models showing something different.
  • Devin Plourde · Top Commenter
    The theme of the pattern we've been in is for warm ups to be very muted and unimpressive as we get closer to them. Sure, we'll ease off of the very anomalous pattern we've seen in mid-November, but I highly doubt we'll go significantly above average into December. Calling for 4-8 degrees above normal in the east in early December just sounds ridiculous to me, especially with them saying that this "will" happen. That's quite frankly irrationally confident and asking to be horribly wrong. I think we'll be around average, maybe slightly above, with some warmer periods and some cold shots. There will even be a few snow chances thrown in. Nothing looks extremely warm, unless you're going by certain long range models... Which is just absurd given that they've been struggling badly in the long range.
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Oakville, Ontario
      4 to 8 degrees above average in the 1st half of December would be approaching December 2011 or December 2012 territory, and I do not see that happening. I would not be shocked if a couple of days reach the 50's in parts of the Great Lakes during the 1st half of December, but I am not expecting any long-lasting warmth.
    • Devin Plourde · Top Commenter
      Exactly... I don't see anything extreme happening either way... I'm pretty certain there won't be extreme cold, but nothing supports extreme warmth either (4-8 degrees above normal would be pretty extreme in my opinion). I do think we'll be above normal, just not by a lot, and sure there will be some 50s.
    • Christopher E. Corrigan · · Top Commenter · Floor organizer/Trouble shooter at Self/Boston Globe
      Devin Plourde ....50's here would be nice and not near average for December..And I am not going out on a limb or foot...I would take it over the bitter cold...I see a shortened Winter in the East this year and spring coming early!
  • Eric Westberg · Carlisle High School
    Wait a week and this predicted warm up will turn into an arctic blast. The last 2 or 3 predicted warm ups have played out this way here in Iowa.
  • Neven Prvinic · · Cleveland State University
    I still think that teh Great Lakes is in for at lest a repeat of last winter if not even worse, as we are still pretty much stuck in the same pattern we had for most part since February of 2013, which is why my area in northeast Ohio has been constanly below normal for almost 2 years now (with the few exceptions). It is interesting to point out that we had a similar flow and below normal pattern from November 2002 all the way to June 2005.
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Oakville, Ontario
      June 2005 (And in fact, the 3 month summer period of 2005) was the hottest on record in the GTA. Oh, and also November 2007 to the winter of 2009-2010, there were more months below average than above average for temperature in the Great Lakes.

      I agree about your thoughts for this winter though (I don't think the 1st half of December will be too bad though, but the rest of winter will be bad). The warm Gulf of Alaska and Siberian snow cover will more often than not bring frigid shots.

      If El Nino forms and sticks around for at least a few months though, I think this might increase our chances for an average to warm summer next year, as most post El Nino summers I have looked up were like that (Notice how summer 2005 was significantly different from summer 2004, same with summer 2010 and summer 2009, and 2004-2005 and 2009-2010 were El Nino winters? It might potentially be similar with 2014-2015 as well given how cool this past summer was overall, but again it's only a possibility). Normally summers before El Nino winters tend to be cool and wet in the Great Lakes, but hot and humid after El Nino winters.
    • Neven Prvinic · · Cleveland State University
      June of 2005 was i believe one of the warmest here too along with that summer. I said about 1 month ago that the winter 2004-05 is an analog winter for 2014-15. That winter was overall just a little below normal but it was the snowiest on record here. Now this record breaking Novermber has me thinking that i may be wrong as it never really got very cold in 2004-05 until late december. As for november 2007-february 2010 i do recall that you guys in GTA pretty much missed 3 summers in the row, while we are not that far south from you, we were not as effected by it that time with summers 2007 and 2008 actually being warm and sunny for the most part, but like you we did miss summer 2009 except some heat in the late April and mid August
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Oakville, Ontario
      Summer 2007 was warm every month except for July in the GTA (But even then, July was only slightly cooler than average that year), so the summer turned out to be near to slightly warmer than average overall. What made that summer especially pleasant was the lack of severe weather and that it was one of the driest on record, although the summers of 2002 and 2001 were fairly similar in terms of dry weather.

      June and July 2008 actually averaged close to normal for temperature, but was very wet (2008 was the wettest summer on record in my area). August was chilly though.
  • Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Professional Tax and Accounting Sevices LTD
    I live between I-95 and I-81. It kind of backs up my theory that the battle zone will be in my area. And the worst weather will be in Mid Jan-Mid Feb. But in reality who knows?
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Oakville, Ontario
      I would not be shocked if the Midwest has the most intense negative departures from normal again this winter.
    • Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Professional Tax and Accounting Sevices LTD
      Cory Morrison Agreed. I also think the Great Plains (North Dakota to Texas will be well above normal). California is in bad shape unless the El Nino strengthens. My local forecaster is predicting a mild start, then alternations in temperature between very cold and mild and the potential for heavy snow/mixed precip events especially in Jan & Dec. He thinks snowfall will be 25-30% higher than normal and with wide variations in temperature. Where it averages out to is questionable. I did notice that Paul Pastelok has said that the storm track may be slightly to the west of what they thought it would be due to the warm ocean off NJ . So that tells me. East of I-95 mostly heavy rain I-95 to I-81 battle zone. West of I-81 heavy snow likely. so its not out of the question that areas east of Philly may not see much snow while areas around and to the west of Harrisburg get buried. I agree the Upper Midwest and the Plains will see the biggest departure below normal in temps while here is will go back and forth. But I see a couple of stretches where the temps stay in the teens for 2-3 days and drop near 0 at night. (That is rare in these parts).
    • Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Professional Tax and Accounting Sevices LTD
      Philly and Harrisburg are only 110 miles apart.
  • Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
    How does anyone think this isn't too early for Winter? I think we have some penguins & polar bears voting.
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Oakville, Ontario
      Or people who need to move from the Northeast US to Alaska so they can get their so-called "awesome" -40 weather.
    • Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
      For me it all goes back to 2010-2011. In December 2010, we had 30s two weeks before Winter Solstice, and no thought it was too early. In June 2011, we had 90s two weeks before Summer Solstice, and everyone was whining about it being "too early for summer"
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Oakville, Ontario
      Even in late May-early June this year, when there were a few really warm days, I witnessed several people complaining about it being too early for summer (I was like "Really people, you had your long cold miserable winter. Respect the fact that us warm weather fans would like some unseasonably warm weather every once in a while. Something that has been the biggest stranger to 2014").
  • Andrew Nagy · Top Commenter · Cashier at Target
    it seems like the only time they let us know about the weather is when it warms up. which makes no sense.
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Oakville, Ontario
      It seems like they are always right when predicting for potential arctic blasts, but often wrong when predicting for warmups this year (Like the "Mid August" warmup they predicted in late July which turned out to be a total bust).
    • Andrew Nagy · Top Commenter · Cashier at Target
      I Agree
    • William Smith · Top Commenter · Inventory at Rem Bar
      I agree too.I'm not sold on it being near 70 here in the New York area come Monday. Not saying that it won't be above the normal of 48 or so for that date,but I'm not buying the near 70 for NYC on Monday.This past Monday,they predicted mid 50's and it barely got even close to 50 degrees and it didn't reach the high of 48 here until like 8PM,while most of the day it was 41,42 degrees.So I'm thinking it'll be more closer to 60 than 70 (say 62,63 degrees),on Monday,but we'll see.There's still a couple more days for them to adjust the temp forecast up or down from here.
  • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Oakville, Ontario
    I am guessing a warm period from December 5th-15th in the Great Lakes/Northeast is likely before a potentially very cold 2nd half of December. Time will tell if I am wrong or not, but this is just my thinking at this point.
  • John Belli · Top Commenter
    I just watched Weatherworld on PCN and they predicted below normal temperatures in December until the 17th of the month, which is the end of the forecast period.