Early April Pattern Change To Bring Annoyingly Chilly Temperatures to Midwest, East

Linda Lam
Published: March 27,2016
April usually brings thoughts or at least hopes of warmer temperatures, but as the calendar turns the page this year that desired warmth may be hard to find for some thanks to a big pattern change.
March has been a very warm month for most of the U.S. Numerous locations from the Rockies to the East Coast, with the exception of much of the South, are in position to see a top five warmest March.
(MORE: Warm Records are Crushing Cold Records in 2016)
Heading into early April, however, a surge of arctic air from the North Pole is expected to push southward into the Midwest and portions of the East. Exactly how far south and how cold temperatures will be are a bit uncertain at this time, but an overall chilly forecast is anticipated.

Chilly Setup

These colder conditions are due to a southward plunge of the jet stream, in response to a blocking ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest, that will allow chillier temperatures to spread from Canada into the Midwest and East.
(MORE: April, Summer 2016 Temperature Outlook)
One of factors that will be playing a role in this April chill is the split the stratospheric vortex underwent in mid-March. This is expected to result in negative Arctic Oscillation conditions in early April, which typically translates to below-average temperatures in the Eastern U.S., with warmer than average conditions in the West.

Chilly Forecast

Forecast Highs

The colder-than-average temperatures will first make its presence known in the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes next Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below where they are typically expected to be for the beginning of April for much of this area next weekend.
The chillier conditions will continue to press south and east into early next week, setting the stage for a cool first week of April. Highs will likely top out in the 30s and 40s for much of New York and New England, with 40s or low 50s in the mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley. Some locations near the Canadian border may not rise out of the 20s.
(FORECASTS: Grand Forks, North Dakota | Kansas City | Cleveland | Baltimore)

Forecast Late Next Week

Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s for much of the Midwest and Northeast, with teens and even a few single digits likely in portions of the northern Plains, northern Minnesota and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
(MAP: 10-day forecast)
Widespread record cold temperatures are not currently expected, but for most it will still be an unwelcome change. Many areas will see a temperature drop of 10 to 25 degrees to start April compared to the end of March.
Parts of the South will also likely experience at least slightly cooler conditions. Highs in portions of the Tennesee Valley may hold in the 50s, with lows tumbling into the 30s and 40s.

Temperature Outlook

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is also highlighting a large area from the Midwest into parts of the East for having a greater than 50 percent chance of experiencing colder than average temperatures during the first several days of April. The best chance to see the colder conditions is in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.
The CPC is also indicating a greater than 50 percent chance of seeing warmer than average temperatures in parts of the Great Basin and West during the first week of April.
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