Friday, September 30, 2016

US winter forecast: Frequent snow to blast Northeast; Freeze may damage citrus crop in South

By Jillian MacMath, Staff Writer
October 1,2016; 12:52AM,EDT
It will feel like an extended winter for those living from the northern Plains to the eastern U.S., as cold and snowy conditions stretch into spring 2017.
Meanwhile, drier and milder weather will focus on the majority of the southern half of the nation. The Southeast may mark the exception as a chilly January threatens to damage the region's citrus crop.

JUMP TO: Frequent storms to bring above-normal snowfall to northeastern US| Damaging freeze may threaten citrus crop in southeastern US | Bitter cold to grip the northern Plains, Midwest | Winter to get late start across southern Plains, Gulf Coast | Early storms to blast Northwest, northern California | Dry, warm season in store for Southern California, Southwest
Frequent storms to bring above-normal snowfall to northeastern US
Frequent storms across the northeastern U.S. this winter may lead to an above-normal season for snowfall.
"I think the Northeast is going to see more than just a few, maybe several, systems in the course of the season," AccuWeather Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
Unlike last season, in which most of winter's snowfall came from a few heavy-hitting storms, this winter will last into the early or middle part of spring and will feature frequent snow events.
According to Pastelok, accumulation may be limited in areas south of New York City, such as Philadelphia, D.C. and Baltimore. These areas will see a handful of changeover systems, where falling snow transitions to rain and sleet.
"But still, Boston, Hartford, along the coastal areas up into Connecticut and southern New England, they can still have a fair amount of snow," he said.
Overall, it's predicted that the region will total a below-normal number of subzero days, though the temperature will average 3-5 degrees Fahrenheit lower than last year.
Damaging freeze may threaten citrus crop in southeastern US
Winter will slowly creep into the Southeast this season, as very mild air hangs on throughout the month of December.
However, the new year will usher in a pattern change as a sudden burst of cold air penetrates the region.
"I am afraid that we have a shot at seeing a damaging freeze in central Florida in mid- to late January this year," Pastelok said.
The chill could spell disaster for the area's citrus farmers.
Cold air will once again retreat following January and the threat is predicted to shift to severe weather.
"Places like Atlanta, Chattanooga, even up into Roanoke, they could have some severe weather," Pastelok said. "But if the storm track is a little farther east, then you're looking more like Tallahassee to Savannah and, maybe, Charleston."
Bitter cold to grip the northern Plains, Midwest
Old man winter won't hold back in the northern Plains this season with shots of brutally cold air predicted to slice through the region.
Developing snowpack in early December may contribute to even colder weather. Temperatures will plummet as the season goes on, averaging 6 to 9 degrees lower overall than last winter.
"...There are going to be some nights, especially if there's snowcover in the heart of winter, that could get down to 20 or 30 below, especially in parts of Minnesota like International Falls and Duluth and parts of the Dakotas," Pastelok said.
Cold air will also remain entrenched across the Midwest after arriving in late November. Coupled with warmer waters over the Great Lakes, an early start to lake-effect season is in store.
"I do feel we're going to kick this season off pretty quick, especially the western lakes. But I think even the eastern lakes will get involved and it will extend all the way out to January," he said.
Winter to get late start across southern Plains, Gulf Coast
Fall-like weather will linger into the winter season across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, but a change will loom on the horizon.
"A turnaround could come into late December and January as chillier air masses work down from the north," Pastelok said.
Though the milder weather will retreat, dryness will stick around, becoming a major theme of the season.
"The area of the country that may miss out on big [snow] storms this year may be Dallas and Little Rock," he said. However, a few disruptive ice events are not out of the question.
AccuWeather Video Wall
AccuWeather winter weather center
Northern California towns in danger of running out of water for 3rd year in a row

<section><h2>POLL: Will a snowy winter deter you from getting outside?</h2></section><section><h2>Yes, I'll stay home!</h2></section><section><h3>No, I love the outdoors when it snows!</h3></section>
Early storms to blast Northwest, northern California
Winter will waste no time in the northwestern U.S. and northern California, as the season kicks off with rain and winter storms.
"They're going to start out pretty wet, especially from northern California into the Northwest coast," Pastelok said. "I think that, right off the bat in December, we start to see the snow piling up in the mountains."
November and December will see the most action, before high pressure builds in and stormy weather eases back in late January and February.
Dry, warm season in store for Southern California, Southwest
While moisture aims for the Northwest, warm and dry conditions will span much of the season for central and Southern California and the Southwest.
"December is [looking] very warm [in the Southwest] and I think we could break some record high temperatures," Pastelok said.
A few cold shots will hit areas like Phoenix and Flagstaff, Arizona, in January, but the warm weather will quickly rebound.
For Southern California, the pattern will exacerbate ongoing drought conditions.
"We're in a pattern that doesn't really show a lot of rain coming toward Southern California, so I don't expect too much relief," Pastelok said.
What precipitation does fall in California will aim primarily for the north, though it will fail to have the significance of last January when the region was hammered by heavy rain and snow.
"I do think in the early part of the season we're looking good anywhere from San Francisco, Sacramento and into the mountains," he said.
"...If we can get some snowpack built up in the north, we can fill up these reservoirs going into spring and summer."

Phil Bobrow ·
Works at Warren Store
What was AccuWeather's pre-winter forecast last year for the northeast?
Brandon Bosch ·
I'll remember this forecast. I'm sure I will see an Accuweather article this spring that goes along the lines of "Warmest Winter On Record Confirms Global Warming."
Unlike · Reply · 2 · 9 hrs
Aaron Deskins ·
Remember its called Global Warming, not United States warming. Just because its cold here doesn't mean its cold in Australia or Siberia, even. As for their long-range forecasts. Assume it to snow and be cold in Winter. That's accurate.
Like · Reply · 3 hrs
William Smith ·
Aaron Deskins , no you both are wrong,it's called climate change. Get it right, before they rename it something else to fit their socialist,globalization agenda.
Like · Reply · 1 min
Tammy Powell
how about winter for texas arkansas southern oklahoma????
Like · Reply · 1 · 10 hrs
James P Mcguinness
I'm a snowplowing contractor from metro Detroit. More snowfall evens this winter ?
Debbie Brunell
well for those who said the farmer's almanac would be wrong about a cold/ snowy winter in the northeast it's now confirmed by accuweather ( who unfortunately called the hot/ humid seemingly never ending summer from he double hockey sticks right ) and mulitable other weather sources, break out you'r parkas , snow shovels , snow tires , sleds , ice skates ect... winter is coming baby and she might just stay awhile!
Judith Redeye
Brett Anderson ·
Works at Accuweather
Judith, Alaska should be warmer than normal this winter with above-normal precipitation/snow across the southern half of the state. Hawaii should have above-normal temperatures and near-normal rainfall from what I see at this point. Brett Anderson (senior meteorologist AccuWeather)
Like · Reply · 6 · Sep 29, 2016 11:12pm
Chelsea J. Hayes ·
People dont live in Alaska, they just exist there.
Like · Reply · 1 · 12 hrs
Jacob Vandervest ·
Forgot Alaska and Hawaii.
Brett Anderson ·
Works at Accuweather
Jacob, Alaska should be warmer than normal this winter with above-normal precipitation/snow across the southern half of the state. Hawaii should have above-normal temperatures and near-normal rainfall from what I see at this point. Brett Anderson (senior meteorologist AccuWeather)
Like · Reply · 1 · Sep 29, 2016 11:12pm
Jacob Vandervest ·
Brett Anderson Thanks! Living in Juneau I feel like we are never included in these forecasts.
Like · Reply · Sep 30, 2016 12:01am
Brian Moore ·
Already booked 2 1/2 weeks in February in the southern Caribeean . I had a feeling we are in for a long cold one !
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
If this coming winter is like 2014-15 or 2013-14, then my feelings could approach an all-time low.
Like · Reply · 1 · Sep 29, 2016 9:27pm
Mark Johnson ·
This is the dumbest thing I've ever read. We are all dumber for having seen it.
Neal Relyea ·
CAN'T WAIT! I'm an avid ice fisherman. Last winter the ice was very poor. I was only able to fish a few times. I'm looking forward to a winter with good fishable ice, without having to drive several hours to find it.
Qu Mike ·
I cannot Stand Snow !! Try living in the Upper Peninsulas Keweenaw... Nothing but cold and Lake effect snow !!!
Rick Warboy ·
I'm in Syracuse, east of Lake Ontario, and I also hate the lake-effect snow and cold ! Stashing some bread this summer for any last minute escapes of a week or so to very southern climes when it gets unbearable.
Like · Reply · 2 · Sep 29, 2016 10:08am
Ava Jamis
Like · Reply · 10 hrs
Robbie Mitchell ·
Works at Walmart
I don't get it. Last winter we had an El Nino that made Oklahoma warm and dry. Now, this year we're going to be neutral and the forecast is exactly the same?
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Not every El Nino/La Nada/La Nina behaves the same.
Like · Reply · Sep 29, 2016 12:52pm
Barry Armstrong ·
Cory Morrison the la nina has disapated
Like · Reply · 22 hrs
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Barry Armstrong tell me something I don't know. I never said it did not. All I said was that not every ENSO phase behaves the same.
Like · Reply · 18 hrs
James Anthony Hines ·
Two different forcasts for the United States Winter predictions of 2016-2017, as neither agree with one another. Interesting to see that as predicts another dier winter for cold weather enthusiasts or bliss for warm weather lovers Accuweather says the opposite. The only general agreement -- there are deviations; between the two is that the Northeast shall have a near normal winter. I need to study your NOAA charts, and see what nature says in the Farmers Alamac.
Paul Brasset ·
where do i go to look to see if the next month or 2 the BLOB may die down and things might shift to COOLER conditions
ClaudetteConrad Robert ·
Regan Anderson ·
They will have to duke it out with the weather channel.