Published: February 21,2016
It's still far too soon to be confident of the exact details, such as how much snow, rain or ice this storm may wring out in any area from Tuesday through Friday. However, let's step through the general setup, then day-by-day outlook, as we know it right now.
The Setup
It starts with a vigorous jet-stream disturbance plunging southeastward from the Rockies into the southern Plains Monday into Tuesday.By later Wednesday into Thursday, that intense jet-stream storm system may be injected with even more energy from the northern-branch, or polar jet stream as it moves into the East.
As a result, low pressure at the surface is expected to strengthen rapidly, racing from the southern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes or eastern Canada.
Potential Setup Ahead
In addition, the magnitude and extent of the cold air (in other words, low-level cold air near the surface cold enough to support snowflakes surviving to the ground) also remains somewhat in question during the storm's initial stages.
However, once the low-pressure system has strengthened rapidly, deep-enough cold air will be drawn in the storm's cold conveyor belt to support significant snow to the west, northwest and eventually southwest of the low's track.
Meanwhile, to the east of the low's track, warm enough air will be drawn north in the storm's circulation to keep precipitation mainly in the form of rain along most of the East Coast.
In some ways, this may be a case of déjà vu after the mess left behind by Winter Storm Olympia, though the swath of heaviest snow will likely be in a different area.
(RECAPS: Over 20 Inches of Snow | Tens of Thousands Without Power | South Tornadoes)
The Outlook
While the precise details cannot be determined yet, there are some generalities of this potential Eastern storm beginning to take shape.Let's break down the latest forecast day-by-day, then outline where the heaviest snow may fall.
Tuesday
- Snow in the Rockies and Front Range of Colorado should spread into the High Plains of western Kansas and possibly the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas.
- Rain and t-storms will stretch across much of the rest of the South from Texas to the Carolinas.
- (FORECASTS: Denver | Amarillo | Dallas)
Tuesday's Forecast Rain/Snow/Ice
Wednesday
- Rain may change to snow across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, including parts of Kentucky and Tennessee, then into the Great Lakes and northern New England.
- Uncertainty remains regarding how soon the low-pressure system intensifies, which would affect the area seeing the rain-to-snow transition Wednesday.
- Intensifying winds may lead to sharply reduced visibilities later Wednesday/Wednesday night.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms, possibly including tornadoes, may race across parts of the Deep South.
- Rain spreads into parts of the East.
- (FORECASTS: Louisville | Detroit)
Wednesday's Forecast Rain/Snow/Ice
Thursday
- Wind-driven, heavy snow may persist in the eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Appalachians.
- Rain marches up the rest of the Northeast Seaboard, possibly ending as a brief period of snow.
- (FORECASTS: Detroit | Cleveland | Buffalo | Boston)
Thursday's Forecast Rain/Snow/Ice
How Much Snow?
- Best chance for heavy snow (at least 6 inches): Parts of the Colorado Rockies, Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes, central Appalachians. There may also be lake-enhanced snow in some eastern Great Lakes snowbelts Thursday into early Friday.
- Mainly less than 6 inches: High Plains, Ozarks, mid-Mississippi Valley, rest of interior Northeast (northwest of I-95).
Snowfall Potential Through Thursday
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this potential storm and any likely forecast changes ahead.
No comments:
Post a Comment