March May Start on the Snowy Side in the Midwest

Linda Lam
Published: February 27,2016
Another winter storm may help March to start like a lion for portions of the Midwest and Northeast.
This would hardly be much of a breather after Winter Storm Petros already dumped over a foot of snow to parts of the Midwest this past week.
(MORE: Winter Storm Petros Snow, Wind)
That said, this does not appear to be a crippling blizzard with the potential to dump over a foot of snow over a widespread area.
This is mainly because the jet stream is in what is called a progressive pattern, meaning disturbances propagate through the jet stream rather quickly from west to east, rather than being blocked and persisting over any given area.

Early March Stormy Setup

The next disturbance will arrive in the Pacific Northwest Sunday and will push eastward into the Rockies and then into the Plains Monday and Midwest by Tuesday.
Low pressure at the surface will organize along the Arctic frontal boundary and gain some strength as it sweeps through the eastern two-thirds of the country.
Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be pumped in and over the cold air at the surface, wringing out some snow, and even, potentially, a little freezing rain or sleet.
(MAPS: 10-day Forecast Highs/Lows and Conditions)
There are still notable differences in the computer forecast models regarding the track, timing and intensity of this low-pressure system, which will impact where, when and how much wintry precipitation will occur. Below is an overview of where the best chances for snow, sleet or freezing rain may occur.

Forecast Timeline

Snow will blanket the northern and central Rockies, as well as parts of the adjacent High Plains Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday is where the large uncertainty lies.
This uncertainty revolves around when and if the surface low-pressure system strengthens rapidly, or remains relatively weak.

• Low strengthens quicker: Heavier snow possible farther west in parts of Michigan, possibly parts of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin with less snow in the eastern Great Lakes and northern New England.
• Low strengthens later: Heavier snow possible farther east in the eastern Great Lakes and northern New England with lighter totals in the western Great Lakes.

Given the uncertainty, it is too early to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest snow may fall.
We also can't rule out a strip of freezing rain or sleet for a period of time embedded in the wintry precipitation shield from the mid-Mississippi Valley into northern New England Tuesday into Wednesday, which would not only slicken roads, but could also accumulate on trees and powerlines in some areas.
For now, our current forecast maps are shown below.
(FORECASTS: Chicago | Detroit | Cleveland | Syracuse | Burlington)
Changes to this forecast are likely so please check back with us at weather.com for the latest updates.

Tuesday's Forecast

Tuesday Night's Forecast

Wednesday's Forecast

MORE: Winter Storm Petros (PHOTOS)