Published: February 22,2016
Although it's likely we'll see accumulating snow in portions of the above mentioned regions, specifics on exactly where the heaviest swath of snow may fall are still uncertain. Let's look at the general setup and then the forecast details of what we know right now.
The Setup
It starts with a vigorous jet-stream disturbance plunging southeastward from the Rockies into the southern Plains into Tuesday.By later Wednesday into Thursday, that intense jet-stream storm system may be injected with even more energy from the northern-branch, or polar jet stream as it moves into the East.
As a result, low pressure at the surface is expected to strengthen rapidly, racing from the southern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes or eastern Canada.
Winter Storm Setup
In addition, the magnitude and extent of the cold air (in other words, low-level cold air near the surface cold enough to support snowflakes surviving to the ground) also remains somewhat in question during the storm's initial stages.
However, once the low-pressure system has strengthened rapidly, deep-enough cold air will be drawn in the storm's cold conveyor belt to support significant snow to the west, northwest and eventually southwest of the low's track.
Right now it looks like there will be a narrow band of heavier snow in portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes. However, the exact placement of that heavier band will depend on where we see the greatest overlap between the available cold air and moisture on the northwest side of where the area of low pressure tracks.
Meanwhile, to the east of the low's track, warm enough air will be drawn north in the storm's circulation to keep precipitation mainly in the form of rain along most of the East Coast.
Forecast Timing
Let's break down the latest forecast day-by-day, then outline where the heaviest snow may fall.Into Tuesday
- Snow in the Rockies and Front Range of Colorado may spread into the High Plains of western Kansas, northeastern New Mexico and possibly the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms, possibly including tornadoes, may race across parts of the Deep South Tuesday and into Tuesday night.
- (FORECASTS: Denver | Amarillo)
Tuesday's Forecast Rain/Snow/Ice
Wednesday
- Daytime: Rain may change to snow across parts of the Ozarks and mid-Mississippi Valley, including parts of northern Arkansas and Missouri, then into the Great Lakes and northern New England.
- Night: Rain changes to snow across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Appalachians. Snow continues in portions of the Great Lakes, particularly Michigan. Most of the wintry precipitation in New England changes to rain.
- Intensifying winds may lead to sharply reduced visibility later Wednesday/Wednesday night.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Southeast.
- (FORECASTS: Cincinnati | Detroit | St. Louis)
Wednesday's Forecast Rain/Snow/Ice
Thursday
- Wind-driven, heavy snow may persist in the eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Appalachians.
- Rain persists in much of the Northeast, possibly ending as a brief period of snow in the interior Northeast.
- (FORECASTS: Detroit | Cleveland | Buffalo | Boston)
Thursday's Forecast Rain/Snow/Ice
How Much Snow?
- Best chance for heavy snow (at least 6 inches): Parts of the Colorado Rockies, Lower Michigan, central Appalachians. It's possible that a narrow zone from the Ozarks into parts of southeast Missouri, Illinois and Indiana could also see 6 inches or more total snow. There may also be lake-enhanced snow in some eastern Great Lakes snowbelts Thursday into early Friday.
- Mainly less than 6 inches: High Plains, Ozarks, mid-Mississippi Valley, rest of interior Northeast (northwest of I-95).
Eastern Snowfall Forecast
Rockies and Plains Snowfall Forecast
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this potential storm and any likely forecast changes ahead.
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