March May Roar In With Threat of Severe Thunderstorms

Linda Lam
Published: February 27,2016
March may come in like a lion for portions of the central and eastern U.S. Another impactful storm system could bring severe thunderstorms, as well as significant snow, from the Plains to the South, Midwest and East next week.
Just this week, on the warm side of Winter Storm Petros, almost 60 tornadoes were confirmed from east Texas to Pennsylvania. Strong wind gusts in thunderstorms also caused damage from New England to the Southeast.
(MORE: Late February Tornado Outbreak | 5 Strange Things We Saw)
Early next week a disturbance in the jet stream over the Rockies will intensify as it swings into the nation's Midwest and East.

Stormy Setup Next Week

An area of low pressure is then expected to develop in the Plains on Monday then sweep with its attendant strong cold front through the east Tuesday and Wednesday.
Ahead of this cold front, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will return across the southern Plains and Southeast.
(MAPS: 10-day Forecast Highs/Lows and Conditions)
One primary uncertainty in this setup, in addition to significant timing uncertainty, is how far north deep, Gulf moisture is able to surge ahead of the cold front. That, in addition to how much low-level wind shear, or the change in wind speed and direction with height in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, would affect the magnitude of the tornado threat.

Severe Thunderstorms Possible

A few severe thunderstorms may develop as soon as overnight Monday night from northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas into the Ozarks, with the main threat being large hail.
Tuesday, severe thunderstorms should be more widespread from east Texas and Louisiana to the mid-Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. Damaging thunderstorm winds are a good bet with these storms, and a few tornadoes are possible.
(FORECASTS: Houston | Memphis | New Orleans)

Tuesday's Severe Threat

The severe threat will spread eastward Tuesday night across Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and possibly into portions of the Carolinas, again, with damaging straight-line winds the primary concern.
(FORECASTS: Mobile | Atlanta | Nashville)

Tuesday Night's Severe Threat

Wednesday, the cold front should rapidly race toward the East Coast with scattered thunderstorms from the coastal Carolinas into the Florida peninsula. Damaging straight-line winds appear to be the primary threat at this point.
If the front takes longer to push offshore, a few stronger wind gusts, either with thunderstorms, or simply with bands of rain ahead of the cold front, could reach into the coastal mid-Atlantic region and New England.
(FORECASTS: Washington D.C. | Raleigh | Jacksonville)

Wednesday's Severe Threat

Given that this forecast is several days away, changes are likely so check back with us at weather.com for the latest updates.

Average March Tornado Threat

The risk of severe thunderstorms generally begins to ramp up in March.
As the month progresses, the necessary ingredients for severe thunderstorms begin to come together with a greater frequency. Warm and humid air tend to become more prevalent and flow farther north, taking up more real estate through the South and into portions of the Midwest. This is due to a reduction of strong arctic cold fronts bringing frigid temperatures and more stable conditions across the East.
In addition, stronger jet stream disturbances begin to punch into the central U.S. The result is an increased risk of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes.

In March, the tornado threat is higher from portions of northern and eastern Texas and Oklahoma into the Lower and Mid-Mississippi Valley stretching as far north as central Illinois and central Indiana and as far east as Georgia.
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, the average number of tornadoes in March from 1989-2013 was led by Texas with 11. Florida placed second with 6 tornadoes and tied for third place, with 5 tornadoes, are Kansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.
The past three years, tornado activity has been well-below average. In March 2015, the first three weeks did not even see a single tornado or severe thunderstorm watch.
(MORE: Changing Tornado Seasons?)
But past overall quiet seasons have no bearing on what will happen ahead, and there's been a noticeable uptick in activity in February.
It takes only one dangerous storm on any given day to threaten life and property.
Therefore, it is important to be prepared for severe weather any time of year, including having a plan on where to go during severe weather and a way to get severe warnings.
PHOTOS: Gulf Coast Severe Weather Feb. 23-34, 2016