Tornado Outbreak Possible in the South Tuesday; TOR:CON Raised to 6

February 22,2016


 
A tornado outbreak is possible Tuesday into Wednesday as severe thunderstorms track across the South.
The instigator for this potential outbreak is an area of low pressure that will move from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes while intensifying significantly.
The TOR:CON for Tuesday and Tuesday night has been raised to 6 out of 10 for parts of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle, according to Dr. Greg Forbes of The Weather Channel. This means there is a 60 percent chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the specified areas. TOR:CON values as high as 5 out of 10 are posted for Wednesday in eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.
In addition, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a moderate risk for parts of the Gulf Coast Tuesday and says that a couple of strong tornadoes (EF2 or higher rating) are possible. A moderate risk is the second highest of five categories on SPC's severe thunderstorm forecasts.

Severe Setup Tuesday

If you live in or are traveling through the South on Tuesday into Wednesday, be prepared for the possibility of severe storms capable of producing tornadoes. Be sure you have a way to get the latest watch and warning information.
As the frontal system moves into the East, there should be enough cold air on the northwest side of the system for snow across parts of the Rockies, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Appalachians.
(MORE: Next Winter Storm Ahead)
Below is a breakdown of our latest severe weather outlook.

Severe Weather Forecast

Monday Night

• Threat Areas: Central Texas to the Rio Grande.
• Main Threats: Large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado.
• Cities: Austin | San Antonio | Del Rio

Tuesday

• Threat Areas: Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak possible from parts of southeastern Texas into Louisiana, central/southern Mississippi and southwest Alabama.
• Main Threats: Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail are all possible hazards. Heavy rain could lead to some flash flooding. A couple of strong tornadoes are possible.
• Cities: Houston | Jackson, Mississippi | New Orleans

Tuesday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Hourly City Forecast

Tuesday Night

• Threat Areas: The potential for severe storms may continue during the evening and overnight hours from much of Mississippi to Alabama, west/central Georgia and the Florida panhandle.
• Main Threats: Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail are all possible hazards. Heavy rain could lead to some flash flooding.
• Cities: Columbus, Georgia | Mobile, Alabama | Montgomery, Alabama | Pensacola, Florida

Tuesday Night's Thunderstorm Forecast

Wednesday

• Threat Areas: A line of severe thunderstorms may continue surging east ahead of the advancing cold front across the Deep South from parts of Florida and Georgia to the Carolinas, eastern Virginia and southern Maryland.
• Main Threats: Damaging thunderstorm winds would be the biggest threat, however, tornadoes are also a possibility, if instability is high enough, both within the squall line and in any individual thunderstorms ahead of the line.
• Cities: Jacksonville, Florida | Raleigh, North Carolina | Richmond, Virginia | Savannah, Georgia

Wednesday's Thunderstorm Forecast

In addition to the chance for severe thunderstorms, heavy rain is expected from eastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma into Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, central and northern Georgia, as well as the Carolinas. Rainfall up to two inches may also spread up the East coast into eastern New England.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

The 2016 Severe Season So Far

Severe thunderstorm activity, including tornadoes, has been off to a quicker start in 2016 than what we had seen over the prior two years.
(RECAPS: Groundhog Day Outbreak | Mid-February Severe Storms)
The month of February has already witnessed two tornado outbreaks across the Gulf Coast states, bringing the preliminary tornado count for the year to at least 74. This is actually near or slightly below the 2005-15 average about just over 80 tornadoes through mid-February.

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Florida has seen more than its fair share of tornadoes thus far in 2016. This includes a relatively rare EF3 tornado that ripped through the Florida panhandle on Feb. 15. That was the first EF3 or stronger tornado to hit the area since April 19, 1988, according to the Severe Weather Institute at the University of Alabama-Huntsville.
(MORE: President's Day Severe Weather Event)
There have also been multiple other damaging tornadoes to the south and east across the Florida peninsula since January.
The ongoing El Niño may be an factor in the onslaught of severe weather across the Sunshine State. The National Weather Service has said that El Niño creates favorable conditions for winter tornadoes in Florida.
(MORE: El Niño Means More Florida Tornadoes?)
El Niño has been gradually weakening, but it is difficult to speculate how this may influence the spring severe weather season with much certainty.
Stay tuned to weather.com for the latest severe weather and tornado information.
(MORE: Tornado Central)

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