WeatherFanatics: Late Week Snowmaker Possible in Midwest and Mid-Atlantic

Monday, February 29, 2016

Late Week Snowmaker Possible in Midwest and Mid-Atlantic

February 29,2016
We are watching for the potential of another round of wintry weather in portions of the central and eastern states late this week. This possible snowmaker would come on the heels of Winter Storm Quo, which is spreading snow across the Midwest and interior Northeast into Wednesday.
Locations from the Midwest to the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic would be in line to see this round of early-March snow later Wednesday through Friday. However, we must caution that computer model forecast guidance has been very uncertain for this possible late-week system in recent days, ranging from just a minor snowmaker to a more impactful round of accumulating snow.
The reason the forecast is uncertain is that the batch of energy in the upper atmosphere that would be responsible for developing this snowmaker is still over the north-central Pacific Ocean. It will finally enter the Northwest on Tuesday and then dive southeastward into the Plains on Wednesday, where it will spawn a surface low pressure system. That low will then track across the South late this week.

Wintry Setup Late Week

Various computer model runs have been handling those features differently over the course of time the last few days, resulting in different forecast outcomes. This is not uncommon several days in advance of a potential weather event.
For now, here's what the latest forecast guidance is depicting. Keep in mind, however, that this forecast may change, so check back for updates.

Late Week Snow Potential Key Points

Timing:

Mainly light snow is expected in the northern Plains and into parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday.
Snow or a rain and snow mix will then push into the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic Thursday night through Friday.

How Much Snow?

At this time, moisture seems to be limited with this system. Therefore snowfall accumulations would be light, if any, in most areas along the path of the low.
The majority of the forecast models also take the low out to sea and do not move it northward along the Northeast coast. An out to sea low track would prevent any significant impacts from reaching areas north of the mid-Atlantic, including New York City and New England.

Potential Forecast Changes to Watch:

Should the available moisture increase compared to what is currently forecast, then we could see greater snowfall amounts along the path of the low.
There is also still a chance the low could pivot north along the East Coast, bringing snow to areas farther north in the Northeast. In addition, that would prolong the snow in some areas leading to heavier totals than currently forecast.

We will continue to monitor this potential late week snow, so stay tuned for daily updates the next several days. Below are our forecast maps for this system Thursday through Friday.