Watching Three Chances of Snow in the East Into Next Week

Linda Lam
Published: February 3,2016




 
A pattern change is coming, and that will open the door for a more winter-like setup across much of the East and into the South in the week ahead.
Portions of the East will see three chances of wintry precipitation, courtesy of a series of disturbances that could trigger the development of low pressure systems that may then track near or off the East Coast. If it's cold enough, one of those systems could also bring light snow to the South.
Depending on the exact track and timing of each of these systems, snow is a possibility for parts of the Northeast and South at times over the next week.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)
Hopefully, you enjoyed the mild and record-breaking temperatures earlier this week as a pattern change is ahead. The overall setup heading into next week will be for colder conditions across much of the East. A strong cold front will slide through the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley Sunday, bringing another blast of arctic air. This cold front is then expected to push off the East Coast by Tuesday morning.
(MORE: The Great Northeast Snow Meltdown)
Below-average temperatures will spread from the Upper Midwest into the South, with most areas seeing highs 10 to 20 degrees below average by Tuesday. High temperatures midweek will range from the single digits above zero to the 20s from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley and temperatures will top out in the 30s and 40s for much of the South.

Snowy Setup Into Next Week

There are currently significant differences in the forecast models for each possible storm, which lowers the confidence for where and how much snow may fall.
Below we highlight each system and the possible outcomes.

First Chance: Mid-Atlantic, New England Thursday Night into Friday

The cold front that brought rain to the South and Northeast midweek will stall near the East Coast on Thursday. An area of low pressure is then expected to develop and move off to the northeast as colder temperatures filter in, setting the stage for the possibility of some snowfall along the immediate Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.

Thursday Night's Forecast

Key Points:

• There are forecast model differences as to how close this system will track toward the Northeast coast.
• If the area of low pressure comes close enough to New England, several inches of snow are possible, especially on Cape Cod and possibly as far west and north as Providence and Boston.
• A winter storm watch was issued Wednesday afternoon for Cape Cod from Thursday night through Friday afternoon due to the potential for heavy snow, with snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour. This snow will be a wet snow, meaning if heavy snow does develop power outages are possible.
• There is also the possibility for a few snow showers along the Mid-Atlantic coast as far south as Norfolk, Virginia.

(FORECASTS: Norfolk, Virginia | Atlantic City, New Jersey | Providence, Rhode Island | Hyannis, Massachusetts)

Second Chance: Carolina Coast to New England Saturday Night into Monday

The next system is expected to form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and then develop rapidly off the Southeast coast on Sunday. This low pressure system then may track northward and could impact the Mid-Atlantic and New England Sunday night into Monday.

Monday's Forecast

Key Points:

• Rain from this system is likely from Florida to eastern North Carolina beginning Saturday and may persist along the coast of the Carolinas into Sunday.
• There may be enough cold air across portions of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina to bring some snow during the Saturday night into Sunday evening timeframe. However, there are forecast model differences regarding the track and speed of this system, which will make a big difference in whether or not rain will mix with or change to snow.
• Gusty winds are also possible in the eastern Carolinas on Sunday.
• As this low pressure system continues to strengthen and move away from the Southeast coast it could come close enough to bring another round of snow to eastern New England on Monday, as well as rain to the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday into Monday.

(FORECASTS: Charleston, South Carolina | Wilmington, North Carolina | Nantucket, Massachusetts)

Third Chance: South to Northeast Monday Night into Wednesday

The last system has the potential to be the most impactful in terms of snowfall and wind. The cold front mentioned above will bring the chance of snow, in addition to the plummeting temperatures, from the Midwest to the South and into the Northeast.
Key Points:

• On Monday, snow is possible from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley.
• By Monday night, the chance of snow showers will extend from the Great Lakes into parts of the Northeast and Southeast, possibly as far south as Atlanta.

Monday Night's Forecast

• Snow could linger on Tuesday from the Great Lakes into portions of the South, possibly as far south as Birmingham, Alabama. A mix of rain and snow is also possible in parts of the Southeast.
• There are also some indications that an area of low pressure could then develop and strengthen off the East Coast. This may bring more significant snow, along with gusty winds, to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Tuesday into early Wednesday.
• There are forecast model differences with the track of this low pressure and it is very possible that it could develop too far offshore to bring impactful snow to the Northeast.

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Tuesday's Forecast

(FORECASTS: Chicago | Atlanta | Washington D.C. | Boston)
Check back with weather.com for the latest updates on the potential for wintry conditions in the East over the next week.
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