By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
April 7,2016; 10:33PM,EDT
The clock is ticking on the weather pattern that has delivered cold and snow in parts of the midwestern and northeastern United States during early April.
Waves of arctic air and rounds of snow have been ongoing since the start of April and will continue into the second week of the month.
However, a change in the weather pattern is on the way and one that warm weather fans might enjoy.
This weekend will be the last featuring widespread cold with snow across the Midwest and Northeast.
"The atmospheric traffic jam, which allowed the polar vortex to dip southward toward Hudson Bay, Canada, will break down," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
"A westerly flow of air from the Pacific Ocean will expand into the Eastern states and will allow temperatures to trend to more average levels for this time of the year beginning next week," Anderson said.
The new weather pattern will prevent arctic air from moving southward beyond northern Canada.
A taste of mild air will sweep from the Plains to the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic later this weekend into early next week.
The warmup will last about two days with highs well into the 50s and 60s F in many locations. Highs will be in the 40s to lower 50s from the upper Great Lakes to northern New England.
"One last piece of arctic air will drop southward across Canada during the middle of next week," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok. "However, the core of that arctic air will not plunge as far into the U.S. as those earlier this month."
"It could get cold enough for frost as far south as Virginia around April 13-14," Pastelok stated. "People should hold off a bit longer before planting or putting out tender flowers and vegetables."
During early next week and around the third weekend of April and beyond, temperatures most days will average within a few degrees of normal, with few exceptions.
RELATED:
Snow, wintry mix to sweep across midwestern and northeastern US into this weekend
'Cold blob' to be a wild card in the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season
April cold threatens 'significant losses' of fruit crop in northeastern US
By the third week in April, normal high temperatures range from near 60 in Minneapolis, Chicago and New York City to the middle 60s in Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C.
Anderson cautioned that brief episodes of cool and cloudy conditions can still occur well into April and May.
"Back door cool fronts are a notorious problem for areas along the Atlantic coast well into the spring," Anderson said.
For example, since New England is surrounded by water on two sides, normal temperature lag behind much of the rest of the nation. The ocean warms and cools more slowly than the land. The average high is in the middle 50s in Boston during the third week of April.
Another way for a few random chilly days to occur is for a storm to form in place and stall. Chilly storms of this nature in April and May are often surrounded by warm air and challenging to predict beyond a few days in advance.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams summed up the upcoming weather for the Midwest and East into May.
"While there will be some bumps along the way, and we do not expect any heat waves, the weather during from the second half of April and into May should be more typical of the time of year," Abrams said.
Bee Junky ·
Works at Scentsy
It will be hot, hot, hot before you know it...A NYC misery
Bill Ross ·
the
first diagram reflects strong positive PNA and strong negative NAO, yet
the charts that the CPC puts out says negative NAO will occur in a few
days from now. I don't understand why there is a lag.
1
John H Harris ·
I've taken to calling these last two winters "The Winter That Won't Let Go".
Frank Pierce ·
at
least you had a winter its about to be 110 here and we barely had any
rain so far this spring and no snow. i can see how the spanish would
label oklahoma as part of the great american desert.
Frank Pierce ·
oh and when we get no rain or snow in the winter we usually have state wide wildfires.
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Spring
came pretty quick compared to 2013 to 2015 this year, since March
7th-18th 2016 had the best March weather since 2012 in the East, and
March 2016 averaged warmer than normal overall. The first half of April
has been abnormally cold, yes, but this cold pattern may only be a
couple of weeks long. It also snows every year in April depending on
where you are in the East (I think 1998 was the last time my area had a
snow-free April).
This is not like January-March 2015 and 2014 when we had polar intrusions virtually every week. In fact, temperatures were above normal probably 85% of the time from September to March this year in the East.
My advice, just be patient. Several weeks from now we may likely be basking outdoors.
This is not like January-March 2015 and 2014 when we had polar intrusions virtually every week. In fact, temperatures were above normal probably 85% of the time from September to March this year in the East.
My advice, just be patient. Several weeks from now we may likely be basking outdoors.
William Smith ·
Yes,last
year (2015) we had quite a few times when it snowed here in the NYC
area in April. Last year,we even had snow as late as April 28,albeit it
was a brief snow flurry that lasted 2 or 3 minutes,but it was only in
the 30's that day and that's the end of April,folks.Then,just 2 weeks
later,it was 85 degrees,so these things happen at this time of year. I'm
quite used to these wild weather deviations around here: 85 one day and
2 or 3 days later,30's and snowing and then 2 or 3 days after that,back
up near 80. Yes,this seems to be a prolonged stretch of winter-like
weather that's more than 2 or 3 days long,but it'll all come to an end
soon,I'm sure,and then we'll be whining that it's too hot around here
too early. We weather geeks seem to never be satisfied. LOL!
Bill Ross ·
actually
the last 4 winters would not let go, regardless of how early or late
they started or how cold or mild they were. 2014, the coldest winter in
over 100 years went well into April after an early start in November.
At Hamilton ON, each of the last 4 Aprils (2013 to 2016) set two cold
temperature records. So over 25% of the cold temperature records have
happened in the last 4 years....with climate change, the new definition
of winter is January 1 to April 30.
Bill Ross ·
Frank
Pierce yes, the western US is almost always warm and getting warmer and
drier due to climate change, while the NE US is getting cooler and
wetter.
Bill Ross ·
Cory Morrison April 2010 had no measurable snow. this year is the first heavy snow April since 2003.
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Bill Ross
I do remember seeing flurries on April 9th 2010, and I believe there
were some on April 17th 2010. I was referring to the last April that did
not have a single flake.
John H Harris ·
The
reason I've said that about these last two is that they're the ones
where we'd have a bit of warming and then BAM! back into lake effect
snow (Chautauqua County, NY). I don't mind the cold. It's more snow
just when you think it might be over that gets to me...
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
John H Harris I see. It snowed on April 23rd last year after that one decent week in mid-April.
John H Harris ·
The meme from two years ago was Elsa demanding an Oscar before she'd let winter end.
Last year, I made a meme where Hans says, "Admit it, Anna. Your sister has PMS again."
That's what it felt like.
Last year, I made a meme where Hans says, "Admit it, Anna. Your sister has PMS again."
That's what it felt like.
Aaron Ginther ·
Hopefully
summer will arrive by the latter part of May. The patterns that set up
by late May (with exceptions as always) is often the same pattern that
will establish itself through the summer. However, in 1983 it stayed
cool until mid-June, and that's when the hot summer made itself known.
In 2005, May was cool, June was near normal, while July-September was
hot. So it's not end all and be all either.
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
And
many years in the past 3 or so decades have had chilly starts to June
in the East, but they did not always mean a cooler summer.
Aaron Ginther ·
Just
because it's on the cool side locally in the east, even into May and
early June, doesn't necessarily portend anything for the heart of
summer. I may be wrong, but I still believe there was a lot of heat
building in the plains states in years like 1983, 1995, and 2005 while
the eastern third was staying relatively cool in May and into the early
part of June. I'd say our source regions for summer heat are worth
watching. It's similar to how in the winter we need to pay close
attention to our cold source regions.
And even though May and June 2014 were warm overall back east, what heat was building in the nation's midsection and in the heart of dixie? Virtually none.
Similar to how in June 2012, when it was actually slightly cool in the first half of the month.. I remember how much extreme heat was building up in the plains during that time, just staying there and intenifying.
And even though May and June 2014 were warm overall back east, what heat was building in the nation's midsection and in the heart of dixie? Virtually none.
Similar to how in June 2012, when it was actually slightly cool in the first half of the month.. I remember how much extreme heat was building up in the plains during that time, just staying there and intenifying.
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Aaron Ginther the drought monitor would be worth checking as well.
Also, no wonder June 2015 never got hot where I am since the Plains had a very dank May last year, and was extremely wet (There was enough southeast ridging that the East got warmth last May).
Also, no wonder June 2015 never got hot where I am since the Plains had a very dank May last year, and was extremely wet (There was enough southeast ridging that the East got warmth last May).
Aaron Ginther ·
Cory Morrison
and Texas and Oklahoma were actually record wet in May 2015. Very high
moisture content in the southern plains is obviously going to prevent
temperatures from rising very much. Even though early June was nasty
where I am, mid-late June was hot because we did get into the southeast
ridging. But it broke down by the end of the month, and we quickly got
into cooler temperatures. I was also at the northern periphery of this
zone as well, so once the southeast ridging weakened, it retreated
farther to the south. That area of southeast ridging stayed parked over
the southeast for quite a while.
And June 2015 was actually a very wet month for me as well.
And June 2015 was actually a very wet month for me as well.
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Typical late April and May weather will feel tropical after this week's punshingly brutal weather in the GL.
David Gerard Turco ·
"For
example, since New England is surrounded by water on two sides, normal
temperature lag behind much of the rest of the nation. The ocean warms
and cools more slowly than the land. The average high is in the middle
50s in Boston during the third week of April."
Depressingly true but because our weather usually comes from the west or northwest, when fall comes "boom" it's freezing. In other words were the last to warm up but not the last to cool down. Coastal New England really has one of the most harsh climates in the country.
Depressingly true but because our weather usually comes from the west or northwest, when fall comes "boom" it's freezing. In other words were the last to warm up but not the last to cool down. Coastal New England really has one of the most harsh climates in the country.
Bill Ross ·
I
agree that New England got the short end of the stick when it comes to
climate change...that region has cooled during the last 30 years.
Nick Varnalis ·
"While
there will be some bumps along the way, and we do not expect any heat
waves, the weather during from the second half of April and into May
should be more typical of the time of year," Abrams said.
And again the above average temp prediction from March - May is for the most part incorrect.
And again the above average temp prediction from March - May is for the most part incorrect.
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
March
was above normal, April will likely end up below normal, while May is a
wildcard. I think meteorological spring could end up close to normal
(As I think a near normal May could be most likely at this point), while
astronomical spring could as well depending on what the first few weeks
of June are like.
Bill Ross ·
did
Accuweather say "March to May will be above average", or "spring will
be above average"? where I live, spring is April-June...and that is in a
good year.
Bill Ross ·
Cory Morrison
I agree, the March and April anomalies will offset each other, so May
will be decider, I think it will be a cold May, similar to 2003.
No comments:
Post a Comment