Severe Weather Outbreak, Including Tornadoes, Expected Tuesday in Plains; Isolated Severe Weather in Great Lakes Monday (FORECAST)

Jon Erdman
Published: April 25,2016

A week of dangerous severe storms capable of spawning tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds gusts is taking aim on parts of the Plains, Midwest and South.
The first bout of damaging storms brought large hail and a few reports of tornadoes to the Plains states Sunday. The chance for a few severe thunderstorms will move into the southern Great Lakes region on Monday.
(MORE: Tornadoes, Hail Impact Plains Sunday)
Then, an outbreak of severe storms, including the possibility of strong, long-track tornadoes, is expected Tuesday. The tornado conditions index, better known as TOR:CON, has been raised to 7 out of 10 in central and east Kansas, according to severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes of The Weather Channel. This means there is a 70 percent chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the areas indicated. TOR:CON values are as high as 6 out of 10 in central and east Oklahoma.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed a swath from southern Nebraska into central Kansas and central Oklahoma under a moderate risk for severe weather Tuesday. A moderate risk is the second highest of the five categories SPC uses to outlook areas of possible severe weather on a given day.
When a moderate risk is issued, widespread severe storms are likely, including supercells. The most intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes and very large hail two inches or greater in diameter.
(MORE: 4 Things to Know About Tuesday's Expected Outbreak)

Storm Prediction Center Outlook Tuesday

Below we are the details on the forecast through the week ahead.

Why We're Concerned: The Setup

Upper-level and surface pattern setting up Tuesday and Wednesday.

In general, spring severe outbreaks are triggered when a southward dip in the jet stream, or upper-level trough, surges east into the Plains states.
That precise pattern looks to be shaping up this week, particularly on Tuesday.
Ahead of the upper disturbance, progressively richer moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will push northward, adding to instability from the pockets of cold, dry air aloft. This combination of ingredients will fuel the development of severe thunderstorms.
(MORE: Why April is a Dangerous Month)

Severe Weather Forecast

Here's an outlook of potentially the most active severe weather periods into next weekend.
(INTERACTIVE: Your 7-Day Severe Weather Outlook)
Monday

• Isolated severe t-storms from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, southwestern Michigan, northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio.
• Detailed TOR:CON lists
• Threats: Large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado are possible.
• Cities: Chicago | Milwaukee, Wisconsin | South Bend, Indiana

Monday's Thunderstorm Outlook

Tuesday

• Outbreak of severe t-storms in parts of the central and southern Plains, particularly in southern Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, north-central and central Texas. The threat may spread into western Missouri, Arkansas and east, as well, into the evening.
• Detailed TOR:CON lists
• Threats: Tornadoes (possibly strong/long-track), very large hail, damaging winds
• Cities: Dallas-Fort Worth | Hastings, Nebraska | Oklahoma City | Tulsa, Oklahoma | Wichita, Kansas

Tuesday's Thunderstorm Outlook

Wednesday

• Severe t-storms could again be rather numerous from the Missouri Valley to the mid-Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, Ozarks and northeast Texas.
• Detailed TOR:CON lists
• Threats: Tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds
• Cities: Little Rock | Paducah, Kentucky | St. Louis 

Wednesday's Thunderstorm Outlook

After Wednesday, we may see another round of severe storms in the southern and central U.S. Thursday into next weekend. For full forecast details on this late week threat, click the link below.
(MORE: Late Week Severe Weather Threat Ahead)
Now is a good time to refresh your memory on severe weather preparedness.
(MORE: 7 Things You Should Never Forget When Tornadoes Threaten | Tornado Safety Page)
Do you know where to go in your home, condo, apartment, office or school when a tornado warning is issued? What if you're caught out in the open?
The time to have a tornado safety plan is now, before a tornado strikes.
(MORE: April's Tornado Pace Slow So Far)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Sunday's Storm Reports

Sunday evening, a tornado was reported near Holyrood, Kansas and near Glendale, Kansas, with numerous reports of funnel clouds near Ellsworth. Hail up to 3 inches in diameter was also observed near New Cambria, Kansas. Two tornadoes were also spotted in southern Nebraska, near Superior and Deshler Sunday evening. Damage to a trailer home has also been reported in Munden, Kansas, possibly due to a tornado and two people were injured during the storm.
Damage from a possible tornado was also reported in League City, Texas Sunday evening, including roof and fence damage.
Farther north, there were multiple reports of a brief tornado near Delavan, Minnesota Sunday night. A tornado was also reported near Waseca, Minnesota.

MORE: Most Notorious April Tornadoes