4 Things To Know About the Severe Weather Threat This Week

Linda Lam
Published: April 26,2016
Severe thunderstorms have already impacted portions of the Plains and Midwest this week and the threat is not over yet. After the strong midweek system, another disturbance will once again bring the risk of dangerous storms to end this busy week.
Here are four things to know regarding the threat of large hail, tornadoes, damaging winds and heavy rainfall, as we head through Saturday.
(MORE: Severe Forecast Through Wednesday)

1.) The Threat of Severe Weather Lasts All Week

Late Week Setup

The low pressure system that brought severe thunderstorms to the Plains on Tuesday will continue to bring severe weather through midweek from the Mississippi Valley into the South and Ohio Valley. This system is expected to push off the East coast later this week.
Then, yet another system will move into the Southwest and the Plains to end the work week. This next system will be accompanied by the threat of severe thunderstorms beginning Thursday night in Texas, as well as parts of Oklahoma, and the threat will spread eastward into the weekend.

Five Day Forecast

It is too early for details on where severe weather will be found Friday and Saturday but portions of the southern Plains and South will likely be the target area for another round of severe thunderstorms.
(MORE: Late Week Severe Threat)

2.) Heavy Rain Is a Concern By Late Week

Rainfall Forecast

Locally heavy rain is expected within some of the thunderstorms that develop this week, which will likely become a concern later this week. When the next low pressure system moves into the southern Plains and the Mississippi Valley at the end of this week in addition to the chance for severe weather, the chance for heavy rainfall will also increase. This will likely result in the threat of flash flooding late week and into the weekend.
The heaviest rainfall through Saturday is expected in eastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, northwestern Louisiana and central and southern Arkansas. Much of this area will see rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches and totals may top 5 inches in those areas by the weekend.
This is an area that does not need additional rainfall after already experiencing flooding earlier this year. Therefore, with the ground saturated any heavy rainfall will likely lead to flooding.
(MORE: Major Flash Floods Over the Past Year Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and Oklahoma)
According to the National Weather Service in Shreveport, Louisiana, "rainfall amounts through the week could total between 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts closer to 8 inches over the Red River Basin of northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma."

3.) Severe Threat Lowers As System Moves East

Stormy Midweek Forecast

The chance of tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will still be prevalent each day through at least Saturday. However, it currently does not appear that severe thunderstorms will be as widespread as on Tuesday.
The midweek system is expected to weaken as it presses eastward, although large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will remain possible, especially on Wednesday.
Later this week, as the next disturbance moves into the Plains and Mississippi Valley, scattered severe thunderstorms will develop once again. An outbreak does not seem likely at this time, but given that this next event is still a few days away, the forecast may change so check back with weather.com for your latest forecast.
(INTERACTIVE: Your 7-Day Severe Weather Outlook)

4.) The Area at Risk is Familiar With Tornadoes in Late April

Areas shaded red have the highest probability of seeing tornadoes in late April.
(SPC)

Later this week, the threat of severe thunderstorms will return to the areas that typically are at the greatest risk for tornadoes toward the end of April.
The map above from Storm Prediction Center shows the tornado probabilities across the Lower 48 for April 26 based on data during the period 1982-2011. Areas shaded in red from north Texas into Oklahoma and Kansas have historically had the highest probability of tornadoes this time of year.
(MORE: What Counties See the Most Tornado Watches)
MORE: Severe Weather Late April 2016 (PHOTOS)