Tropical Storm Patricia Threatens Pacific Coast of Mexico; Hurricane Warnings in Effect

October 21,2015
Tropical Storm Patricia is located in the eastern Pacific Ocean off the Mexican coast and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane sometime Thursday. Patricia is forecast to make landfall along Mexico's Pacific coast on Friday, where damaging winds, storm surge flooding and rainfall flooding could all be threats.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)

Latest Storm Status and Satellite Image

As of 10 p.m. CDT, Patricia was located about 240 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico and 455 miles southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. The storm is steadily strengthening based off of data found by hurricane hunters Wednesday afternoon and satellite trends Wednesday night.

• A hurricane warning remains in effect along the Pacific coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo. 
• Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.
• A tropical storm watch is posted from east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area within 48 hours. A watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area.
The threat for wind damage and storm surge will depend on how much Patricia intensifies between now and when it makes landfall. There is at least a possibility that Patricia may rapidly intensify prior to landfall, given a favorable environment that includes very warm sea-surface temperatures.

Projected Path and Intensity

Regardless of how strong it becomes, Patricia may dump 6-12 inches (locally 20 inches) of rain over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible.
Assuming Patricia makes landfall as a hurricane, it would join just four other eastern Pacific hurricanes to do so this late in the season dating back to 1949, according to weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman.

Watches/Warnings

Once this system moves inland, mid-level moisture and energy from it may get pulled into the south-central U.S. This may add more fuel to a heavy rain and flooding threat in Texas and nearby states this weekend.
MORE: Late Season Hurricanes (PHOTOS)