Unusually Strong Cyclone Chapala Eyes Oman, Yemen

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

October 31,2015; 9:24PM,EDT

 

 

Yemen and Oman are bracing for impacts from a small, but currently powerful Tropical Cyclone Chapala (04A) in the Arabian Sea.
Tropical Cyclone Chapala (04A) became the equivalent to that of a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific Ocean on Friday, local time.
Image of Tropical Cyclone Chapala taken on Sat. Oct. 31, 2015. (NOAA/Satellite)
"Chapala became the second strongest cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said. "The pressure of Chapala is 922 mb, close to the lowest pressure of Gonu, 920 mb, in 2007."
Nicholls added that the last cyclone to strike Yemen was Keila in 2011 and was only equivalent to a weak tropical storm.
Chapala is forecast to weaken substantially, prior to making landfall early late Monday or early Tuesday, local time.
This tropical system will have no direct impacts on India as steering winds from the east will result in a track toward Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.

"The main threat area from Chapala will be Yemen and Oman," Nicholls said of the tropical system in the Arabian Sea.
Nicholls anticipates, "Several inches of rain and flooding are possible, starting on Sunday as the cyclone approaches but remains offshore."
The latest forecast continues to take Chapala westward before turning northwest as it approaches the coast of eastern Yemen on Monday. This scenario would bring little or no impacts to western Yemen and northeast Somalia.
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Oman Weather Center
Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Center
Yemen Weather Center
Seas will build substantially in advance of Chapala along the coast of Somalia, Yemen and Oman. Offshore waves within 160 km (100 miles) of the center will range between 4 and 8 meters (15 and 25 feet).
Chapala will weaken as it approaches the Yemen coastline.
According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, exactly how quickly the system will weaken is uncertain at this time.
"A strike on the Arabian coast by a major tropical cyclone is rare due to great amount of dry air that is drawn in from the Arabian Peninsula well ahead of the storm," Sosnowski said.
Chapala could still be a dangerous cyclone equivalent of a Category 1 or 2 hurricane as it makes landfall in eastern Yemen.

Eastern Yemen and far southwest Oman should be on highest alert for this storm that is expected to bring flooding and damaging winds.
Areas within 50 km (30 miles) of landfall will see the worst conditions with damaging winds, coastal flooding and torrential downpours.
Locations in Yemen that may be impacted by the damaging hurricane-force winds of Chapala include Sayhut, Itab, Qishn, Haswayn, Nishtun and Al Ghaydah.
Rainfall will average 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) across far eastern Yemen and parts of Oman near the border producing life-threatening flooding.
AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor the Indian Basin, following this pattern change, in the coming weeks.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty contributed content to this story.