By Chyna Glenn, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist
October 19,2015; 10:27PM,EDT
Regardless of tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico or not, a stream of tropical moisture into Texas will raise the risk of heavy rain and flooding starting later this week.
Although the Atlantic has been quiet since Hurricane Joaquin, conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are showing signs that the tropical season may not be finished.
In years of strong El Niño, it is rather difficult for tropical systems to strengthen in the Atlantic due to unrelenting wind shear; this has been the cause for less-than-normal activity during the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season.
Wind shear is a rapid change in direction and speed of air flow at different levels of the atmosphere. Wind shear can prevent a tropical system from forming and cause an organized tropical system to weaken.
Without a parade of storms throughout the season to churn up and cool surface waters, the Gulf of Mexico has become very warm, leading to the enhancement of an area of unsettled weather later this week.
South Central Extended Regional Weather Forecast
The slow movement of this system in the western Gulf of Mexico could allow enough time for these showers and thunderstorms to organize into a tropical system.
Although water surface temperatures in the Gulf will promote tropical strengthening, moderate wind shear will be the factor that inhibits development through the end of the week.
According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, the system may also be too close to land for substantial organization and strengthening.
"In order for rapid development, the feature would have to turn out over open waters but then you still have the wind shear factor to contend with," Sosnowski said.
The most likely scenario for this disturbance is that the moderate wind shear will be too strong to allow for a tropical system to develop. However, even an unorganized system could produce a robust area of showers and thunderstorms.
Whether or not this disturbance can develop into a tropical system, copious amounts of Gulf moisture will move inland with this system, raising the threat for flooding in parts of Texas and Louisiana late this week.
"The combination of high pressure over the Southeast U.S. and low pressure over the Four Corners region will funnel moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico into the southern Plains," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio said.
"This will generate thunderstorms that will produce heavy rainfall and potential flooding for many communities," Rossio added.
Any non-flooding rainfall would be a benefit for areas from Texas to parts of Louisiana due to building drought and increasing wildfire risk.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor more than 14 million Texas residents are currently impacted by some degree of drought, with close to one-third of the state in a severe-to-exceptional drought.
"While the rain will be beneficial for many drought-ridden areas across central and eastern Texas, too much rain too quickly can bring a new set of problems," Noll said.
Slow moving torrential downpours can lead to rising water on roads, creating dangerous conditions for those traveling.
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With stubborn high pressure parked over the eastern half of the nation, there is the potential for this system to linger across the South Central states through the weekend.
This high pressure area will act as a wall preventing the moisture from moving eastward away from the region, exacerbating existing flooding concerns.
Content contributed by AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Spamer.
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