Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Northeast Settles Into Pattern With Warm Days, Chilly Nights This Week

By Jordan Root, Meteorologist
September 15,2015; 10:40PM,EDT
 
Warm and dry weather will stick around through the rest of the week across the Northeast promoting several days of great outdoor weather conditions.
A ridge in the jet stream and sprawling high pressure will help pump in warmer air over the next several days and will keep rain away and skies generally cloud-free.
"Many thought that the autumnlike chill over the weekend meant summer was over," AccuWeather Meteorologist Elliot Abrams said. "However, that is not the case."
Mid-Summer like Heat across the Northeast
Daily highs will return to the 80s F for many locations across the Northeast with only a few locations in the Appalachians remaining in the upper 70s F.
The autumnlike chill Abrams referenced was a blast of the chilliest air since last spring for many areas of the East this past weekend. The storm system that ushered in the cooler air also delivered a shield of clouds and rain that made it feel even cooler.
Where skies cleared, overnight low temperatures plummeted into the 20s and allowed frost to develop in some areas in the Great Lakes region.

Cities such as Pittsburgh, Syracuse, New York, Washington, D.C., Boston, Montreal and Ottawa will feel high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Parts of Canada, including Montreal, will have a shot at setting new high temperature records during this upcoming stretch of warm weather.
While daytime temperatures will warm and make it feel like summer, there will be one thing lacking to make it a true summer air mass.
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Elliot Abram's Northeast Blog

"The system over the weekend helped bring an abundance of dry air, so while temperatures will be above normal, humidity levels will generally remain low," Abrams said.
The lack of humidity will be seen as a positive for some, especially for those wanting to partake in outdoor activities.
"It will be a great week to walk, cycle, run, picnic and enjoy any outdoor concerts and ball games," Abrams said.
However, the lack of humidity will worsen droughtlike conditions in some parts.

Despite the days getting warmer, nighttime temperatures will remain chillier, especially in the suburbs and countryside.
Cloud-free nighttime skies will allow most of the daytime warmth to escape, leading to chilly nights.
Those who had to dig out jackets and sweatshirts this past weekend will want to keep those nearby as lows are expected to drop into the 50s and even 40s each night this week.
Low temperatures in Philadelphia, New York City, Boston and other places along I-95 will drop into the 60s at night.
"Fog will increase in coverage in valley locations through the week," Abrams said.
Motorists will want to use extra caution when driving in the morning as some fog will be rather dense in some spots, reducing visibility to below a half-mile.

The above-average warmth will continue into the weekend, but a cold front will help to drop temperatures for the new week.
According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Ben Noll, the warmth will be quick to rebound for the second half of September, with the most notable warmth dominating across the Plains and Midwest.
Summertime warmth will become less frequent as the calendar heads towards autumn. Normal temperatures are falling at an increasingly faster rate, about a degree every couple of days.
Astronomical autumn officially begins Sept. 23, at 4:21 a.m. EDT.
 
 
Brent Richardson ·
Cottone Mathere I have alot of respect for you since you have been posting alot of weather news on accuther.

I have been in several different forums for winter outlook 2015-2016. I have been keeping track of SST weekly and the El Nino is starting to shift west (possibilty Modoki) but right now it's east based. El Nino has weaken a little bit and the warm blob pool is still there. Nothing has changed. If modoki is the case which means the pattern will remain the same, west - warm / east - cold so we will have to wait and see what happens.
Cottone Mathere
At least people have stopped panicking that 2015 is going to be the "year without a summer." Lol
Cottone Mathere
The thing that this article doesn't address, is that despite averages dropping in september, the anomalies can increase. If one looks at 2005 for instance, the temperature didn't change much as sept. wore on in the mid atlantic. The decrease in averages is not just from the sun over a region. It is also from stronger cool air masses coming in. So, if those fail to make it, then temp.'s go up. Also, the air is coming from the south, which loses less daylight. So if warm air holds, it will still be in the 80's late in september for much of the time. Time will tell. Some years do have a cool shot around the 10th-15th, and then warm up for the rest of the month, such as 2007.
Debbie Brunell
cool nights lead to cool days ! " normal tempertures falling at an increasingly faster rate" LOVE IT! i will be dancing on SEPT. 23 AT 4:21!
Like · Reply · 3 · 2 hrs
Steven Buswell
Cool nights aren't expected here in Montreal. The next 4 days and nights are forecast to be 15-20F above normal.
Like · Reply · 1 · 3 hrs
Gregg Symonds ·
yah ...just north of Ottawa ....where u would expect cool nites ...and its 7-10 degrees above normal .... and daytime highs???? lets not go there ....but man it was hot at the beach today .....this is crazy ...and I'm lovin' it .......
Like · Reply · 3 hrs
Cottone Mathere
Steven, actually, lows are supposed to be upper 50's to low 60's, at least in the city, so not that warm, but yes, above average. But not super warm
Like · Reply · 2 hrs
Cottone Mathere
Normal low in Montreal is about 48 F.
Like · Reply · 2 hrs
Andrew Crossett
I wish they'd stop making value commentary about the weather in these reports. Not all of us agree that day after day of 85 degrees in the middle of September constitutes "great weather." Especially with this area now in a moderate drought.
Like · Reply · 1 · 4 hrs
Cottone Mathere
It is mostly because humidity is low that it is considered good weather. It is only good weather from an outdoor activity standpoint. They will probably do another article soon about the "Dire Drought Crippling the Northeast."
Like · Reply · 2 hrs
Michael Sokolowski ·
I sure do love the dry air but we could definitely use some rain.
Like · Reply · 2 hrs
Aaron Ginther ·
I think typical October weather is great weather to me. Stretches of comfortable days in the 60's to near 70, with cool and crisp nights. We had a lot of that the last few Octobers and I hope we get it again this year.
Like · Reply · 1 · 1 hr
Brent Richardson ·
Grant, I would like you to read this website.

http://wxedge.com/.../15/winter-2015-2016-weather-forecast/

It talks about El Nino and warm water in NW pacific and what the winter will be like this year. The pattern will remain the same from last 2 years so if i were you, stop getting too exicited lately with warm September weather bro.
Like · Reply · 1 · 5 hrs
Cottone Mathere
Uh...Brent, I think this article is garbage...it doesn't address the issue of a combined +PDO and stronger el nino, like you claim. Also, he references last winter, which was a very weak el nino. '97-'98 was a very warm winter...above normal precip. in a warm winter usually means more rain, and usually not more snow. Also, his claim about warm falls leading to cold winters is bogus. Just look at 2001, as well as 2005, and even 2007 in the mid atlantic. And the writer himself said there is a lot of uncertainty. '82-'83 was a mild winter, but did have a snowy february. The +PDO could push the polar jet up in the west, and down in the east, but it could also cause a split in the subtropical jet, which could keep the cold air up in canada.
Like · Reply · 2 hrs
Aaron Ginther ·
No one knows what is going to happen this winter.
Like · Reply · 1 · 1 hr
Grant McGuire ·
The chilly nights spoil all the warmth. As a general rule, if you have to dress in layers, it's not good weather
Brandon D. Jackson
Then again, there is the option of NOT dressing in layers...
Like · Reply · 2 hrs
David Colantuono ·
Works at Unemployed
Too warm AND too dry. What we need are cooler temperatures and rain...lots of it (though not all at once due to flooding concerns).
Michael Carenza Jr. ·
At least the nights are cool. I guess that will have to due for now. We really do need the rain.
Like · Reply · 2 · 9 hrs
Brent Richardson ·
Michael Carenza Jr. Cold weather is coming soon hang in there
Like · Reply · 3 · 5 hrs
Cory Morrison ·
Hopefully some of the late month warmth in the Plains may spread east as well. Again, really enjoying this pattern of above normal temps and sunshine.
 

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