Typhoon Dujuan Intensifying, Bearing Down On Japan's Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, China (FORECAST)

Jon Erdman
Published: September 26,2015

Highlights

• Typhoon Dujuan is moving west-northwest and is nearing Japan's southernmost Ryukyu Islands.
• Dujuan may intensify through Sunday and is forecast to become a super typhoon for a time.
• Dujuan will likely lash both the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan as a strong, formidable typhoon.
• Okinawa (Kadena AB) may see peripheral effects, but should escape the worst of Dujuan. 
• After its encounter with Taiwan, Dujuan will track into eastern China.

With the exception of the catastrophic rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Etau earlier this month, west Pacific typhoons have either curled out to sea or weakened before affecting land over the past four weeks since Typhoon Goni hammered southwest Japan.
That, unfortunately, won't be the case with Typhoon Dujuan.

Dujuan: Latest Status, Infrared Satellite Image

As expected, Typhoon Dujuan has intensified and should continue to do so through Sunday.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Dujuan will continue a west-northwest track into a gap between a subtropical high to its east, and another area of high pressure aloft over far southern China.
This puts Dujuan on a direct course toward the southernmost Ryukyu Islands of Japan and Taiwan as a strong typhoon, then into China as a somewhat weakened typhoon or tropical storm, after experiencing somewhat increased wind shear and, more importantly, land interaction with Taiwan's mountains.

Dujuan Forecast Path

The Japanese Meteorological Agency has hoisted alerts for high winds, high waves, and storm surge in Miyakojima, Yaeyama, and Okinawa.
Here is the latest thinking on the timing of potential closest approach of the center of Dujuan (in local time), corresponding to the most dangerous conditions. Tropical storm-force winds typically kick in earlier, and last for a period after the closest approach of the center.

• Okinawa: Sunday or Sunday night
• Southern Ryukyu Islands: Sunday night into Monday
• Taiwan: Late Monday into Tuesday
• Eastern China: Tuesday into Wednesday

(FORECASTS: Okinawa | Taipei | Shanghai)
Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, was placed in tropical cyclone condition of readiness (TCCOR) "Storm Watch" Saturday, meaning sustained winds of 40 mph or greater are expected, but stronger, more destructive winds are not expected.
The center of Dujuan is passing well south of Okinawa, but the storm is close enough to still impact the prefecture with some heavy rain and gusty winds.
While any last-minute wobbles in track could play a significant role in impacts, it seemed probable the eyewall of Dujuan could rake at least northern Taiwan with destructive winds, not to mention torrential rainfall, triggering flooding and mudslides.
High winds gusts, along with flooding rainfall seem likely in parts of eastern China, mainly south of Shanghai and northeast of Hong Kong as Dujuan makes its final landfall.

Typhoon Dujuan Wind Potential

The northern Philippines will be spared the brunt of Dujuan. However, we can't rule out heavy rainbands on the southern periphery of the circulation triggering local flash flooding.
(FORECASTS: Manila)
While the rest of Japan should be spared Dujuan's fury, a flow of moist air on Dujuan's eastern side may intercept an east-west stationary front near mainland Japan in the next few days. This is a pattern we've seen already several times this year, and it has produced pockets of prolific rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides over parts of southern Japan.
Some of those areas have already been dealing with heavy rainfall not directly related to Dujuan. Parts of the Pacific coast of Shikoku, one of Japan's four main islands, picked up as much as 18 inches of rain Thursday due to southerly winds that triggered thunderstorms over the same stretch of coastline for hours on end.
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest on Dujuan.

MORE: Typhoon Soudelor, August 2015 (PHOTOS)