Tropical Storm Niala Passing South of the Big Island (FORECAST)

September 27,2015

Highlights

• Tropical Storm Niala is located more than 200 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii.
• Niala is expected to slowly weaken as it continues to move to the west-southwest.
• The forecast track will keep Niala south of the Big Island.
• Some impacts are likely into early week, including locally heavy rainfall and high surf.
• The tropical storm watch for the Big Island was canceled Sunday morning.

(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)

Storm Info

Forecast Path

Hawaii Radar/Flood Alerts

Yet another named storm, Tropical Storm Niala, is flirting with the Hawaiian Islands. Fortunately, none of the previous nine storms that have tracked near the main Hawaiian islands this season have made a direct strike and Niala is not expected to either.
While sea surface temperatures are very warm and atmospheric moisture is plentiful, the familiar nemesis of the 2015 hurricane season, strong wind shear, is now beginning to take hold of Niala, restricting its upper-level outflow in its northwest quadrant.
This is due to the strong subtropical jet stream parked over the Hawaiian Islands, in some ways, a guardian against approaching tropical cyclones.
Niala's center is not expected to directly hit the islands, as it will likely continue moving west-southwest while weakening.
(MORE: Is Hawaii Suffering Hurricane Fatigue?)
However, Niala may still produce some peripheral impacts.
Heavy rain and flash flooding are possible with this surge of tropical moisture, especially on the southern and eastern slopes of the Big Island. A flash flood watch remains in effect for the Big Island through Monday afternoon where rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are possible.
(MAPS: Interactive Radar | Flood Alerts)
Along with the heavy rainfall will come the risk of mudslides, mainly over portions of the Big Island. A few thunderstorms are also possible.
High surf will also be produced, especially along the east and southeast facing shores of the Hawaiian islands into early Monday. High surf advisories have been posted.
The strongest winds are expected to remain well south of the Big Island, and the tropical storm watch that was in effect has been canceled.
A wind advisory is now in effect for all the Hawaiian islands due to the tight pressure gradient between Niala and an area of strong high pressure to the north.
This has been a very busy year in the central Pacific Ocean and the naming of Tropical Storm Niala brought the tropical cyclone count to 11 this season in the central Pacific. Specifically, seven systems have developed in the central Pacific, while four others, Hilda, Ignacio, Jimena and Guillermo, formed in the eastern Pacific and moved west into the central Pacific.
Nonetheless, the count of 11 ties the record for most active years, sharing the title with 1992 and 1994, and the tropical season is not over yet.
(MORE: How Unusual Are Hawaii Hurricanes?)
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest on this system.
MORE: Hawaii Hurricanes (PHOTOS)