Typhoon Dujuan Bearing Down On Japan's Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, China (FORECAST)

Jon Erdman
Published: September 27,2015

Highlights

• Typhoon Dujuan was the equivalent of a strong Category 4 hurricane as of Monday morning Taiwan time (Sunday evening U.S. time).
• Dujuan will likely lash both the southern Ryukyu Islands and northern Taiwan, including Taipei, as a strong, formidable typhoon.
• Tropical-storm force wind gusts have been reported in the southern Ryukyu Islands as of Sunday evening.
• Okinawa (Kadena Air Base) may see peripheral effects, but should escape the worst of Dujuan. 
• Heavy rainfall and flooding are expected across the northern half of Taiwan.
• After its encounter with Taiwan, Dujuan will track into eastern China.

Dujuan: Latest Status, Infrared Satellite Image

Typhoon Dujuan intensified into the equivalent of a strong Category 4 hurricane as of Sunday evening Taiwan time (Sunday morning U.S. time) and remains the equivalent of a strong Category 4 hurricane as of Monday morning Taiwan time.
(MORE: Latest News and Photos)
Dujuan will continue a west-northwest track into a gap between a subtropical high to its east, and another area of high pressure aloft over far southern China.
This puts Dujuan on a direct course toward the southernmost Ryukyu Islands of Japan and northern Taiwan, including Taipei, as a strong typhoon. Dujuan will then head into China as a somewhat weakened but still dangerous typhoon, after experiencing increased wind shear and, more importantly, land interaction with Taiwan's mountains.
(MORE: Stunning Images of Dujuan)

Dujuan Forecast Path

The Japanese Meteorological Agency has hoisted alerts for high winds, high waves, and storm surge in Miyakojima, Yaeyama, and Okinawa. Wind gusts to near-hurricane force have already been reported in the southern Ryukyu Islands as of Monday morning, local time.

Satellite and Current Winds

Here is the latest thinking on the timing of potential closest approach of the center of Dujuan (in local time), corresponding to the most dangerous conditions. Tropical storm-force winds typically kick in earlier, and last for a period after the closest approach of the center.

• Okinawa: Into early Monday morning
• Southern Ryukyu Islands: Into Monday. Center will pass just south of Ishigakijima.
• Taiwan (including Taipei): Late Monday into Tuesday
• Eastern China: Tuesday into Wednesday

(FORECASTS: Okinawa | Taipei | Shanghai)

Rainfall Forecast

While any last-minute wobbles in track could play a significant role in impacts, it seems probable the eyewall of Dujuan could rake at least northern Taiwan with destructive winds, not to mention torrential rainfall, triggering flooding and mudslides. Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau has issued a typhoon warning for all of Taiwan.
Heavy rain was already falling in Taipei on Sunday, well ahead of the core of Dujuan. Rainfall amounts just over eight inches have already been measured near Taipei, as of early Monday morning local time. Extremely heavy rain advisories have been posted for much of Taiwan, meaning 24-hour rainfall totals of more than five inches is possible.
High winds gusts, along with flooding rainfall seem likely in parts of eastern China, mainly south of Shanghai and northeast of Hong Kong as Dujuan makes its final landfall.

Typhoon Dujuan Wind Potential

The northern Philippines will be spared the brunt of Dujuan. However, we can't rule out heavy rainbands on the southern periphery of the circulation triggering local flash flooding.
(FORECASTS: Manila)
Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, was placed in tropical cyclone condition of readiness (TCCOR) "Storm Watch" Saturday, meaning sustained winds of 40 mph or greater are expected, but stronger, more destructive winds are not expected.
The center of Dujuan is passing well south of Okinawa, but the storm is close enough to still impact the prefecture with some heavy rain and gusty winds.
Eventually, the remnants of Dujuan may get picked up by a low pressure system moving across east Asia late in the week. This would take Dujuan's remnants on a path over mainland Japan.
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest on Dujuan.

MORE: Typhoon Soudelor, August 2015 (PHOTOS)