Typhoon Dujuan a Threat to Japan's Ryukyu Islands, Okinawa, Taiwan, China (FORECAST)

Jon Erdman
Published: September 25,2015

Highlights

• Typhoon Dujuan is located about 350 miles south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan.
• Dujuan should continue to intensify and become a strong typhoon within the next day or two.
• Dujuan poses a threat to parts of Japan, including Okinawa, Taiwan and parts of eastern China.

With the exception of the catastrophic rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Etau earlier this month, west Pacific typhoons have either curled out to sea or weakened before affecting land over the past four weeks since Typhoon Goni hammered southwest Japan.
Typhoon Dujuan is slowly gathering strength over the open waters of the western Pacific Ocean.

Dujuan: Latest Status, Infrared Satellite Image

Forecasts earlier this week had suggested Dujuan would track north around the west side of subtropical high pressure, then curl northeast then east, largely missing mainland Japan.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
The current forecast suggests a northwest track into a gap between the aforementioned subtropical high to its east, and another area of high pressure aloft over far southeast China.
With the jet stream far to the north, Dujuan is poised to threaten parts of the far southern Ryukyu Islands of Japan, Okinawa, Taiwan, and eastern China.

Dujuan Forecast Path

Furthermore, the U.S. JTWC mentions the possibility of Dujuan undergoing a period of rapid intensification, defined as a strengthening in sustained winds of at least 30 knots in 24 hours or less.
Here is the latest thinking on the timing of potential closest approach of the center of Dujuan (in local time), corresponding to the most dangerous conditions. Tropical storm-force winds typically kick in earlier, and last for a period after the closest approach of the center.

• Okinawa: Sunday or Sunday night
• Southern Ryukyu Islands: Sunday night or Monday
• Taiwan: Late Monday or Tuesday
• Eastern China: Late Tuesday into Wednesday

(FORECASTS: Okinawa | Taipei | Shanghai)
Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, was placed in tropical cyclone condition of readiness (TCCOR) 3 Friday afternoon, meaning destructive winds of 58 mph (50 knots) or greater are possible, there, within 48 hours. The base advised cleaning up outside homes and facilities, obtaining emergency food and water supplies and filling vehicles with fuel.
At this point, it appears that the center of Dujuan will stay south of Okinawa, but come close enough to still impact the prefecture with some heavy rain and gusty winds.
While the northern Philippines should be spared the brunt of Dujuan, heavy rainbands on the southern periphery of the circulation may trigger local flash flooding and mudslides.
(FORECASTS: Manila)
One other concern, as always, is heavy rainfall.
A flow of moist air on Dujuan's eastern side may intercept an east-west stationary front near mainland Japan in the week ahead. This is a pattern we've seen already several times this year, and it has produced pockets of prolific rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides over parts of southern Japan.
Some of those areas have already been dealing with heavy rainfall not directly related to Dujuan. Parts of the Pacific coast of Shikoku, one of Japan's four main islands, picked up as much as 18 inches of rain Thursday due to southerly winds that triggered thunderstorms over the same stretch of coastline for hours on end.
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest on Dujuan.

MORE: Typhoon Soudelor, August 2015 (PHOTOS)