Highlights
- Tropical Storm Niala is located about 245 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.
- Niala is expected to slowly weaken as it continues to the west.
- The forecast track will keep Niala south of the Big Island.
- Some impacts are likely in the coming days, including locally heavy rainfall and high surf.
- A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Big Island, although most, if not all of the tropical storm-force winds should remain south of Hawaii.
Storm Info
Forecast Path
Hawaii Radar/Flood Alerts
Yet another named storm, Tropical Storm Niala, is flirting with the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Fortunately, none of the previous nine storms that have tracked near the main Hawaiian islands this season have made a direct strike.
Tropical Depression Six-C formed in the Central Pacific just over 500 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii late Thursday, Eastern time and strengthened into Tropical Storm Niala on Friday morning.
While sea surface temperatures are very warm and atmospheric moisture is plentiful, the familiar nemesis of the 2015 hurricane season, strong wind shear, is now beginning to take hold of Niala, restricting its upper-level outflow in its northwest quadrant, and is now likely to have capped its intensity.
This is due to the strong subtropical jet stream parked over the Hawaiian Islands, in some ways, a guardian against approaching tropical cyclones.
Niala's center is not expected to directly hit the islands, as it will likely continue west, possibly curving southwest over the next day or two. The turn occur when the core circulation is so disrupted by increasing wind shear that Niala becomes steered more by low-level east-to-west wind flow from the subtropical high well north of Hawaii.
(MORE: Is Hawaii Suffering Hurricane Fatigue?)
However, Niala may still produce some peripheral impacts.
Heavy rain and flash flooding are possible with this surge of tropical moisture, especially on the southeastern slopes of the Big Island. A flash flood watch remains in effect for the Big Island through Monday, and flood advisories were issued into early Saturday morning for windward locations of the Big Island, Maui and Oahu, due to persistent areas of rain.
(MAPS: Interactive Radar | Flood Alerts)
Along with the heavy rainfall will come the risk of mudslides, mainly over portions of the Big Island. A few thunderstorms are also possible.
High surf will also be produced, especially along the east and southeast facing shores of the Hawaiian islands through Monday. High surf advisories have been posted.
The strongest winds are expected to remainwell south of the Big Island, however a tropical storm watch remains in effect. A watch means sustained winds in excess of 39 miles are possible within the next 48 hours, although probabilities of winds this strong reaching the island are rather low.
This has been a very busy year in the central Pacific Ocean and the naming of Tropical Depression Six-C brought the tropical cyclone count to 11 this season in the central Pacific. Specifically, seven systems have developed in the central Pacific, while four others, Hilda, Ignacio, Jimena and Guillermo, formed in the eastern Pacific and moved west into the central Pacific.
Nonetheless, the count of 11 ties the record for most active years, sharing the title with 1992 and 1994, and the tropical season is not over yet.
(MORE: How Unusual Are Hawaii Hurricanes?)
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest on this system.
MORE: Hawaii Hurricanes (PHOTOS)
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