Niala to Graze Hawaii With Surf, Enhanced Showers

By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist

September 27,2015; 9:38PM,EDT

Although Tropical Storm Niala is not expected to make a direct landfall to Hawaii, it will bypass close enough to bring enhanced showers and high surf to the Islands.
As of 11 a.m. HST Saturday (5 p.m. EDT Sunday), Niala was located about 260 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii.
Niala formed on Thursday afternoon local time before strengthening into a tropical storm on Friday morning local time.
Latest Satellite Loop of Niala (Image/NOAA).
Niala will maintain a southwestward track early this week, passing well away from the islands and weakening in the process.
While Niala strengthened to a strong tropical storm on Saturday, a weakening phase will continue into early this week as wind shear increases causing the storm to be less organized.

Moisture associated with Niala will enhance shower activity across Hawaii through Monday, potentially leading to localized flash flooding and mudslides. That is especially true on the Big Island.
"Rainfall will be heaviest across the mountainous terrain and across the Southeast portion of the Big Island," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike LeSeney said.
High surf will continue along the northern, eastern and southern-facing shores of the Big Island and the northern shores of the smaller islands through Monday. This could lead to dangerous seas for boaters and swimmers. This can even catch seasoned surfers off guard.
Some areas across Hawaii have seen a large amount of rainfall so far during the month of September.
September Rainfall (ending Sept. 26)

City	Rainfall (inches)	Normal (inches) for month
Hilo	21.71	9.94
Lihue	4.78	2.12
Honolulu	4.47	0.55
Wheeler AFB	4.26	3.89
Kalaeloa	2.56	0.79
Kailua	1.45	0.65
Lanai	0.48	0.75
Kahului	0.31	0.38

Due to the amount of rain recently across the state, nearly 96 percent of Hawaii is currently drought free, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
The southeast portions of the small islands of Maui and Kauai remain in either an abnormally dry or moderate drought.
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Conditions will improve after Monday as Niala weakens and moves away from the islands.
According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, "On average, four to five tropical systems affect the Central Pacific basin each year and most originate from the Eastern Pacific."
"So far, there have been 11 named systems in the Central Pacific during 2015," he added.
The reason for a busier tropical season in the central Pacific is related to a strong El Niño.
"With El Niño forecast to remain strong into the fall, the risk of a tropical system impacting the nearby waters of Hawaii will continue into October. However, steering winds tend to shift during the fall," Sosnowski said.
According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Anthony Sagliani, "By late October, winds aloft usually become too hostile for tropical systems to form or maintain themselves over the Central Pacific."