Hurricane Joaquin: 5 Things You Should Know About the Storm

Chris Dolce
Published: September 30,2015
Hurricane Joaquin is spinning near the northeast Bahamas and expected to strengthen. It's future forecast path remains uncertain at this time, so be sure to check back frequently for the latest forecast changes with Joaquin.
Here are five things to know about Joaquin right now.

1.) Complex Weather Patterns Are Causing Future Track Uncertainty

Joaquin Projected Path

Why is there uncertainty with the future track of Joaquin?
The weather pattern evolving over eastern North America and the western Atlantic Ocean late this week is complex. The players include a stalled front near the East Coast, a strong area of low pressure aloft forming over the Southeast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida, and a strong area of high pressure aloft over the northern Atlantic Ocean.
How all of those features interact will play a big role in whether Joaquin moves towards the East Coast or stays out to sea. It's not uncommon to have a large amount of uncertainty with a forecast track 4-5 days in advance of a direct hit from a tropical storm or hurricane. Average track errors in the 4-5 day forecast range have been between 158-210 nautical miles in the last five years, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Bottom line, if you live on the East Coast, now is the time to prepare even with the forecast uncertainty. Don't wait until it's too late.
You can find more details on the forecast and what we know right now on our main Joaquin forecast page at the link below.
(MORE: Joaquin Forecast)

2.) There Will Be Major East Coast Impacts Even if Joaquin Stays Out to Sea

Rainfall Forecast

Regardless whether Joaquin directly hits the United States or not, the East Coast will still see significant impacts from the large-scale weather pattern taking shape.
Heavy rain could cause major flash flooding and river flooding from portions of the mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and the central Appalachians starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend. If Joaquin does make a run at the U.S. coast, this heavy rain threat would precede the storm.
In addition to the flood threat, high surf, beach erosion and coastal flooding will impact the East Coast late week into the weekend. This is due to a strong area of surface high pressure in eastern Canada combining with lower pressure near the East Coast, resulting in a strong onshore wind flow.
For more on the East Coast flood threat, click the link below.
(MORE: Eastern Flood Threat No Matter Where Joaquin Tracks)

3.) Joaquin Originated From System That Moved Off the U.S. Coast Two Weeks Ago

Believe it or not, Joaquin actually originated from an upper-level weather system that moved off the Carolina coastline about two weeks ago, according to senior meteorologist Stu Ostro of The Weather Channel.
Ostro said, "Joaquin's origin can be traced in part all the way back to a upper-level trough that came off the coast of the Carolinas on Sept. 15 (yeah, really!), then became a cold upper low northeast of the Leewards, then warmed and transformed, exemplifying how tropical cyclones can arise from non-tropical systems."
Now there is a chance that Joaquin could return to the East Coast depending on the ultimate outcome of its uncertain track.

4.) This Is the First Time the Name Joaquin Has Been Used

Storm Information

This marks the first time Joaquin has been used as a storm name in the Atlantic Basin or any other basin worldwide. The name replaced "Juan" after its retirement in 2003. Joaquin was first eligible for use in the 2009 season, but the final storm that year was named Ida; Joaquin was next on the list.
Juan was retired after it caused major damage in the Canadian Maritimes in 2003.
Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm name lists repeat every six years, unless one is so destructive and/or deadly that the World Meteorological Organization votes to retire that name from future lists. This avoids the use of, say, Andrew to describe a future weak, open-ocean tropical storm.
(MORE: Retired Hurricane Names)

5.)  This Could Become the First U.S. Hurricane Landfall in More Than a Year

The U.S. coastline has not had a direct hit from a hurricane in more than a year.
Hurricane Arthur was the last one on July 3, 2014, when it made landfall in the Outer Banks.
Arthur was the first hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. since Hurricane Isaac struck Louisiana on Aug. 28-29, 2012. (Sandy, in October 2012, became post-tropical shortly before landfall.)
Arthur was also the first hurricane of Category 2 or greater strength to make landfall in the Lower 48 since Hurricane Ike struck Texas on Sept. 13, 2008.

MORE: Retired Atlantic Hurricane Names