Typhoon Dujuan Targets Japan's Ryukyu Islands; Taiwan and China Brace for Possible Impact

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

September 25,2015; 10:24PM,EDT

 

 

Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands are bracing for a hit by strengthening Typhoon Dujuan later this weekend. The typhoon should eventually threaten Taiwan and eastern China, but those across the rest of Japan should not let their guard down.
Dujuan will continue to strengthen into this weekend as it churns northwestward over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea and disruptive wind shear remains absent.
Dujuan is expected to intensify into the strength of a Category 3 hurricane by Sunday. It is even possible for Dujuan to reach Category 4 hurricane strength later in the weekend.

Through the first part of this weekend, the increasing wind and rain around Dujuan will stay well away from land and pose hazards only to shipping interests. However, seas will build throughout the Philippine Sea and residents on the southern Ryukyu Islands should be rushing to complete preparations for the impending typhoon and heed evacuation orders.
"At this time, the most likely area to get severe impacts will be to the south of Okinawa," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty. This includes the islands of Miyako and Yaeyama, the latter bore the brunt of Typhoon Goni about a month ago.
"Impacts would include winds in excess of 160 kph (100 mph) and rainfall of up to 300 mm (12 inches)," Douty said. The islands would also face extremely dangerous seas and low-lying coastal flooding.
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Conditions will begin to deteriorate Sunday evening with the worst of the storm battering the islands on Monday, local time.
Those on Okinawa should continue to monitor the progress of Dujuan in the event it, along with its damaging winds and torrential rain, takes a turn more to the north than currently expected.
The scenarios for Dujuan after it tracks through the Ryukyu Islands range from the typhoon maintaining its northwestward track toward northern Taiwan and eastern China or turning northeastward and causing mainland Japan to brace for impacts around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Latest indications favor the first solution unfolding.

In this scenario, Dujuan would pass extremely close to or slam into northern Taiwan Monday night before making landfall in eastern China around Tuesday of next week.
"With a continued track to the west, areas from northern Taiwan to Fujian and Zhejiang in eastern China would be at risk for significant impacts," said Douty. "Taipei, Fuzhou and Wenzhou are among the cities at greatest risk."
Cooler water should force Dujuan to weaken prior to landfall in eastern China, but Douty warned "Dujuan would still be a typhoon capable of bringing flooding rain and damaging winds."
The scenario also exists for Dujuan to decrease its forward speed as it approaches eastern China. The result could mean more rain and a heightened flood risk for a given location. Dujuan may not even make landfall in eastern China if this solution unfolds.
Even if Dujuan approaches or makes landfall in eastern China, the rest of Japan may not totally escape all impacts from Dujuan. Moisture from the typhoon could still interact with a frontal boundary to cause potentially flooding downpours to spread across the northern Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu Island later this weekend and early next week.

Soaking Storms in Southern Asia

Later next week, Dujuan or what is left of the typhoon could take a turn to the northeast and threaten more of mainland Japan and the Korean Peninsula with potentially flooding rain and gusty winds as a non-tropical system.
AccuWeather will continue to provide updates and more details on the projected track of Dujuan and hazards to life and property.