New Tropical Threat Takes Aim at Japan

By Adam Douty, Meteorologist

September 20,2015; 9:13PM,EDT

 

As Krovanh dissipates and bypasses Japan, another threat develops this week and takes aim at the country. The culprit is an area of low pressure across the Philippine Sea that will strengthen early this week.
As this area of low pressure crossed the Mariana Islands over the weekend, it remained weak, only bringing light rainfall and a gusty wind. Moderate wind shear kept the low from strengthening during this time.
As the low tracks further west in the Philippines Sea, wind shear is expected to decrease. This, along the warm ocean water and other favorable atmospheric conditions, will allow the area of low pressure to become the next tropical system in the western Pacific Ocean.

Through the first half of the week a track to the west is expected to continue, taking the system to the south of Japan. A turn to the north is then expected during the second half of the week. During this time there should be no direct impacts to land as the low strengthens into a tropical storm, then possibly a typhoon.
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Threats to Japan would not come until closer to next weekend. At this time, however, there remains some uncertainty in the track. If the storm is pulled more to the northeast by an approaching trough of low pressure, then it would likely miss Japan to the east, much like Krovanh. However, if this trough does not have as much influence on the storm, then the eventual path could take it into, or very close to the country.
Because of the threat this storm will bring to Japan next weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor the situation and will update the forecast in the coming days.