Monsoonal Rain Targets Western, Northern India Through Early Week

By Courtney Spamer, Meteorologist

September 20,2015; 9:10PM,EDT

 

 

A storm system that originated in the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday and slammed into the eastern coast of India, near Visakhapatnam, traversed west across the country last week bringing heavy rain along its path.
On Friday and Saturday, heavy rain pounded the city of Surat. Over the two day period the city received 11.3 inches (288 mm) of rain, with lighter rain continuing into Sunday.
Through the first half of the coming week the core of the heaviest rain will move to the north, eventually reaching Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh Tuesday and Wednesday bringing the threat of flooding.

The most widespread areas of rain will stretch along the Pakistan and India boarder, generally between Islamabad and New Delhi. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches (25-75 mm) will be common across this area with a few areas seeing in excess of 3 inches (75 mm). Lahore will be one city at risk for heavy rainfall.
"The moisture will be pulled as far north as Kashmir and Nepal" AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said. This could be where the heaviest of the rain falls through Wednesday as moisture is pushed into the Himalayan Mountains.

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Moisture pulling pushing into the mountains will cause heavy rain from Kashmir to Himachal Pradesh with upwards of 6 inches (150 mm) possible. Rainfall of this magnitude will be capable of producing life-threatening flash flooding and potentially mudslides.
"This is a short duration event (three to four days), but it should be enough to trim the deficits in western and northern areas of India," Nicholls explained. "The average national rain deficit could move from its current -15 percent to -12 or -10 percent by the middle of the week."
Behind this monsoonal moisture, dry weather is expected to settle into western India for the new week.
Meanwhile, another surge of monsoonal moisture from the Bay of Bengal will aim for eastern coast of India, bringing a period of drenching showers and thunderstorms across northeastern India early this week. However, flooding will not be a significant concern in this area.