Nathan Eyes Australia With Flooding and Strong Winds

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

March 18,2015; 9:50PM,EDT

 

 

Tropical Cyclone Nathan brought flooding rainfall to northeastern Queensland, Australia, late last week but has since pulled away from the coast allowing for dry weather to return. However, later this week, Nathan will bring the return of heavy rain to northeastern Queensland threatening the region with another round of flooding.
In the last 24 hours, Nathan has strengthened into a Category 3 storm, according to Australia's BOM.
After the most recent round of rain last week, many rivers in northeastern Queensland spilled out of their banks causing flooding when 245 mm (9.64 inches) of rain fell in just 24 hours in Weipa from Thursday into Friday. Cairns was also ravaged by flooding problems.
River levels across the region receded over the weekend, and according to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology, river gauges across eastern Queensland are below flood level. This will change from later Thursday into Saturday as Nathan brings a new round of flooding rainfall to similar areas.

Nathan is expected to move very slowly across the Coral Sea over the next few days. While moving over the warm water of the Coral Sea, Nathan may continue to slowly strengthen. However, as Nathan moves closer to the Australian coastline, drier air may be sucked into the storm limiting its strength and preventing any further major intensification.
The greatest concern comes very late this week when the cyclone is expected to track to the west and once again near the northeastern Australia coast bringing the threat for flooding rainfall and damaging winds.
As Nathan moves closer to the coast later in the week, flooding will threaten areas from Cairns to Cardwell to Cape Flattery for a second time.
Even though river levels have fallen below flood stage, this renewed rainfall can cause rivers to rise quickly and overflow their banks once again.
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Damaging winds are also a concern as Nathan is expected to move onshore this time, bringing the strongest winds with it, unlike last week when the strongest winds remained offshore.
Dangerous beach conditions will prevail along the northeast coast of Queensland all week as large swells and rip currents will increase as Nathan approaches.
Conditions will deteriorate Thursday into Friday rain from Nathan spreading over the Queensland coastline. Landfall will likely occur late Thursday night into Friday morning between near Cooktown.
Nathan will weaken as it tracks westward across the southern tier of the Cape York Peninsula. Even though weakening is expected, heavy rain will still be a concern as whatever remains of Nathan will track westward into the Bay of Carpentaria before spreading downpours into northern parts of Northern Territory by Sunday or Monday.
Meteorologist Adam Douty contributed to this story.