Arctic Blast Ahead, But is it a Polar Vortex?

By: By Chris Dolce

Published: January 19,2014

 

 

 

 

The start of January's final two weeks will share a common trait with the start of the month: shivering cold temperatures to the east of the Rockies.
(MORE: Recap of Early January Deep Freeze)

Cold Pattern Next Week

There's even been some more chatter about the "polar vortex", which became a popular catchphrase to describe the blast of bitter cold air at the start of the month. However, just like in early January, this term is being used misleadingly from a meteorological perspective since the actual center of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex never really moves through the atmosphere above the United States - rather, it remains anchored farther to the north.
(EXPERT ANALYSIS: Stu Ostro on the Polar Vortex in Early January)
With that said, the counterclockwise flow around the polar vortex will help to shove cold air southward from the Arctic into the Lower 48 just like we see in many other winters. Think of it as a spoke of the polar vortex rotating through, ushering in the chilly temperatures.
There is nothing unusual about this since the polar vortex is always present and there are always spokes and always surges of cold air during the winter in our hemisphere. In any given place or time, the surge of cold air can be more or less intense and travel a longer or shorter distance from the pole.
Okay, that's enough meteorological jargon and analysis, let's take a look at how cold it will get this time around.

Another Shivering Week Ahead

Monday's Highs

• Monday AM Lows

Tuesday's Highs

• Tuesday AM Lows

Wednesday's Highs

• Wednesday AM Lows

Thursday's Highs

• Thursday AM Lows

This next blast of Arctic air will begin to push southward across the Canadian border and into Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and the interior Northeast Sunday night through Monday.
Tuesday through Thursday, the heart of this cold air mass will anchor itself from the Northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast. It's these regions that will see temperatures 10 to 25 degrees below average at times this week, right during the climatologically coldest time of year.
Parts of Southeast will also see chilly temperatures, generally 5 to 15 degrees below average Tuesday through Friday, but locally 20 degrees below the norm on Thursday.
As far as high temperatures go, many locations will see single digits and teens each day in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and interior Northeast. A few spots near the Canadian border may see subzero high temperatures. In the Ohio Valley and along the Northeast I-95 corridor from Boston to Philadelphia, high temperatures will mostly be in the mid teens to mid 20s Tuesday through Thursday.
(FORECAST: Chicago | Cincinnati | Detroit | Minneapolis | New York)
During the overnight and early morning hours, subzero temperatures will be more widespread. Parts of the Upper Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota and northern Iowa, will dip into the single digits and double digits below zero. Portions of Upstate New York and Northern New England will also see subzero lows.
(LOWS: Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu)
How do these temperatures compare to the early January Arctic outbreak? Let's pick a few cities for a comparison:
Minneapolis: 

• Early January: Coldest high (-12 degrees), Coldest low (-23 degrees). 
• Forecast this week: Highs in the single digits above zero. Lows in the single digits and teens below zero.

Chicago:

• Early January: Coldest high (-2 degrees), Coldest low (-16 degrees)
• Forecast this week: Highs in single digits and teens above zero. Lows a few degrees either side of zero.

Albany, N.Y.:

• Early January: Coldest high (5 degrees), Coldest low (-12 degrees)
• Forecast this week: Highs in the teens. Lows in the single digits above zero.

So, for the vast majority of the locations, the actual air temperature won't be quite as cold this week compared to early January. Also, wind chills should not be as cold as we saw earlier this month.
That said, you should still be prepared to bundle up and protect yourself from the elements.
Looking beyond this week, it's possible, but not certain, that we could see even more frigid air pour in from Canada next weekend into early the following week (Jan. 25-28). However, as you would expect this far out in time, details on how this potential cold blast would compare to the one in early January are very uncertain. Stay tuned.
MORE: Photos of the Early January 2014 Deep Freeze

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Passengers heading into downtown wait on an 'L' platform for the train to arrive in below zero temperatures on January 7, 2014 in Chicago, Illinois. (Getty/Scott Olson)