First Snowstorm of 2014 to Target Midwest, Northeast

By Nick Wiltgen Published: Dec 30, 2013, 5:20 PM EST weather.com

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We won't get far into 2014 before the year's first snowstorm takes aim on parts of the Midwest and Northeast. And while this storm is still a few days away, there are already some indications that this could pack quite a punch over the Northeast.

New Year's Day

Humble Beginnings

This snowstorm is forecast to originate from what is currently a difficult-to-detect upper-air disturbance that passed over the Gulf of Alaska Monday.
With time, this disturbance will dive southeastward into the north-central U.S. as a clipper-type disturbance, bringing a stretched-out area of light snow into parts of the northern Rockies and northern Plains by Tuesday morning. A small piece of this energy will break off and bring some light snow to the southern Great Lakes New Year's Eve night as we shift from 2013 into 2014.
As the upper-air system digs southeastward, it should spin up low pressure over the south-central U.S. by late Wednesday, New Year's Day. This will continue to sustain a broad east-west oriented zone of light to moderate snow from parts of the Plains east into the Great Lakes region at that time. With cold air already in place, this snow will likely be the fine and powdery type. Some light snow may extend as far south as the Ozarks and Ohio Valley depending on how far south the upper-air system digs.
(FORECAST: Chicago | Milwaukee | Detroit)
At this time, a narrow swath of six inches or more of snow appears likely across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes New Year's Eve into New Year's Day and Thursday. Keep this in mind if you'll be coming or going to New Year's festivities in this area.
Meanwhile, the subtropical branch of the jet stream will start to become active over the Gulf of Mexico with an area of rain expanding along the Gulf Coast through mid-week. This should help to trigger the development of a weak coastal low near or just east of the Carolinas Thursday or Thursday night, just as the Midwestern system spreads into the Northeast.

U.S. Forecast Model

European Forecast Model

Thursday

Friday

Coastal Storm Emerges

By Thursday these two systems are expected to join forces to form a single – and much more powerful – low-pressure system.
This is where details become especially important. The exact timing of the northern and southern pieces of this system will determine the ultimate timing and location of the resulting coastal storm. This, in turn, will determine where the rain-snow line sets up – and just as importantly, when and where the heaviest snow will fall.
At this time, still three to four days out, there are some differences in the location, intensity, and especially the timing of the coastal low amongst the various computer models we use for guidance. These differences are typical for any snowstorm, and will be reconciled over the next few days. You can see a snapshot of these forecast differences in the first two inset maps at right, model forecasts for Friday morning. The green contours represent areas of precipitation, while the blue line shows a model estimate of the rain-snow line – snow being, naturally, north of that line.
That said, there are enough similarities among the majority of computer forecasts that some portion of the Northeast appears to be at risk for a significant snowstorm from this setup.
Depending on the exact timing and track of the coastal low, a large portion of the Northeast – including, potentially, even coastal areas of New England – could experience a period of snow and strong north to northeast winds Thursday into Friday. Given widespread temperatures in the teens and 20s, this could be a relatively dry, powdery snow with an added "fluff factor" – meaning deeper snow accumulations than you'd see from a wetter, gloppier snow.
(FORECAST: Boston | New York | Albany, N.Y.)
And with the coastal low whipping up the wind, we could be talking about blowing and drifting snow and poor visibility, particularly across New England, but possibly for areas farther west into New York state as well. Confidence in any snowfall reaching the Mid-Atlantic region from Philadelphia to Washington, D.C., on the other hand, is considerably lower; however, the most reliable computer forecasts are hinting that those cities and points east to the Jersey shore and Delaware beaches could be in play for snow.
It's too early to be specific about snowfall amounts in particular areas, but it's not unreasonable to believe that this could produce a widespread snowfall of 6 inches or more across a significant portion of the Northeast. There's the potential for some areas to see more than a foot, but it's far too early to pin down particular towns or cities for those higher amounts.
There have been a few model simulations that wind the low-pressure center up enough to pull it just inland, in which case there would be a better chance for a changeover to rain for some coastal areas. Given a strong arctic high pressure zone over eastern Canada, this scenario seems somewhat unlikely, but still plausible.
In addition to the snow threat, there could be at least some minor coastal flooding for eastern New England due to strong onshore winds late in the week. As with everything else, the details will depend on the exact track, forward speed, and strength of the coastal low pressure center.
Stay with The Weather Channel and weather.com as we continue to update the forecast on this first winter storm of 2014.
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Farmington, Utah

Bob Gardner clears snow in front of his home. (AP Photo/The Deseret News, Ravell Call)