Watches Issued as Severe Storms Take Aim at Northern States Mid- to Late-Week

Brian Donegan
Published: August 3,2016
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will take aim at parts of the northern tier of states during the second half of this week.
The threat begins in the Northern Plains, shifts eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and toward the Great Lakes by Friday.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued the following severe weather watches:

• A tornado watch valid until 11 p.m. CDT for northwest Minnesota and central and eastern North Dakota. This includes Fargo, North Dakota.
• A severe thunderstorm watch valid until 11 p.m. CDT for central and northeast South Dakota. This includes Aberdeen, South Dakota.

There were reports of a tornado on the ground in far northern North Dakota, near Agate, Wednesday evening. Some damage was reported to farm buildings in the area.
Quarter-sized hail was also reported in parts of northern North Dakota.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Below is our latest forecast on the timing and magnitude of the severe threats through the end of this week.

Severe Weather Forecast

Wednesday Evening

• Forecast: Scattered severe storms are expected across portions of the Dakotas, potentially lingering into the overnight hours in western Minnesota.
• Threats: Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats, although an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out.
• Cities: Bismarck, North Dakota | Fargo, North Dakota | Aberdeen, South Dakota

Wednesday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Thursday

• Forecast: Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of eastern Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, and extreme northern Iowa.
• Threats: Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats.
• Cities: Minneapolis | Duluth, Minnesota | Wausau, Wisconsin

Thursday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Friday

• Forecast: A few severe storms are possible Friday across the Great Lakes region, including northeastern Indiana, eastern Michigan, northern Ohio and far northwestern Pennsylvania.
• Threats: Damaging winds and large hail possible.
• Cities: Detroit | Cleveland | Erie, Pennsylvania

Friday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Severe Weather Setup

A disturbance in the upper atmosphere will ride eastward along the jet stream during the second half of this week. Meanwhile, a cold front at the surface will interact with this disturbance, and thunderstorms will form ahead of the cold front.

Where the upper disturbance and cold front position themselves each day will be the area to watch for the development of severe thunderstorms.
A widespread area of severe weather is unexpected, but scattered activity is likely to develop ahead of the cold front where a warm, humid air mass will be in place.

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