By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
August 31,2016; 10:16PM,EDT
While warmth will dominate much of Asia this autumn, drought relief is on the way for southeastern areas.
Meanwhile, the season will bring the risk for tropical cyclones which may threaten lives and property surrounding the Bay of Bengal.
JUMP TO: Cyclones could pose great danger in Bay of Bengal region| Autumn rains to quench Southeast Asia drought | Most tropical cyclones to avoid coastal Arabia | Typhoons still a threat despite record-challenging low numbers | Warmth and dryness to build in northern, western Asia
Cyclones could pose great danger in Bay of Bengal region
"The area at risk for a direct hit by tropical cyclones extends from Sri Lanka to southern and eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar," according to AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
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The greatest threat to lives will be from fresh water and storm surge flooding. Strong winds and large waves near the center of any cyclone will also bring the risk of damage and threaten shipping and fishing vessels in the region.
"We cannot pinpoint the small areas that could face a catastrophe prior to the development of a tropical cyclone and retreat of the monsoon, but Chennai, India, is among the many locations at risk of above-average rainfall and flooding this autumn," Nicholls said.
Chennai was hit by catastrophic flooding during late autumn 2015 which claimed the lives of more than 500 people.
Autumn rains to quench Southeast Asia drought
The warm water in the eastern part of the Indian Ocean and developing La Niña over the tropical Pacific Ocean will have one major benefit.
An uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity that has gotten underway during the late summer is likely to become prolific during autumn.
The anticipated rain should begin to ease drought conditions in Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.
In
this March 28, 2016, photo, water release valves are seen at an almost
dry canal in Chai Nat province, Thailand. Much of Southeast Asia is
suffering its worst drought in 20 or more years. (AP Photo/Sakchai
Lalit)The Southeast Asia drought of 2015-2016 is the worst the region has experienced in decades and has resulted in extreme hardship for agriculture in the region, particularly for rice farmers.
Most tropical cyclones to avoid coastal Arabia
"As the waters of the eastern part of the Indian Ocean will be rather warm, waters over the western part of the ocean will likely be cool, relatively speaking," Nicholls said.
This should effectively lower the risk of a tropical cyclone striking areas from the Arabian Peninsula to Pakistan and northwestern India.
"Despite the lower risk, there is still the slight chance for a system approaching parts of Yemen and southern Oman with some rain and wind during September," Nicholls said.
Typhoons still a threat despite record-challenging low numbers
In the western part of the Pacific, the developing La Niña should continue to limit the number tropical storms and typhoons this autumn.
AccuWeather expects the season to end with a below-average number of tropical storms, typhoons and super typhoons, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister.
"We are forecasting 10 typhoons, which is one more than the record minimum for the year, so it is possible we set a record for low numbers in this category," Leister said.
The 2010 season holds the minimum record with only nine typhoons.
However, despite the lower numbers, compared to average, a single storm can inflict significant damage and threaten lives. Such was the case with Super Typhoon Nepartak in early July, which killed dozens of people and caused more than $1 billion (USD) in damage in Taiwan and southeastern China.
Following the risk of a tropical system or two affecting the area from the northern Philippines to Taiwan and southern Japan during the first part of the autumn, steering winds should direct most other systems out to sea during the middle and later part of the season.
Warmth and dryness to build in northern, western Asia
Elsewhere in Asia, the retreat of the Southwest monsoon and the Southeastern Asia monsoon will result in areas from northern and western India to southeastern China, South Korea and central Japan to dry out during October and November, following wet conditions during September.
Much of the area from Turkey, Cyprus and Syria to much of Russia, Kazakhstan, northern China, Mongolia and northern Japan can expect warmer-than-average conditions this autumn.
"Winter will not be in any hurry to set in from the northeastern Mediterranean Sea to the Sea of Okhotsk," Nicholls said.
Conditions could be dry enough in the Volga Valley to slow the sprouting of winter wheat, which is planted during autumn.
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