Tropical Depression 9 develops south of Florida, will target US Gulf Coast late week

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

August 28,2016; 9:33PM,EDT

 

 

Despite struggling to do so last week, a tropical depression has developed just south of Florida and will turn toward the northeastern Gulf Coast of the United States this week.
The center of this system, currently named Tropical Depression 9, is situated about 60 miles south of Key West, Florida.
Disruptive winds in the atmosphere, interaction with the mountainous Caribbean Islands and dry air prevented the tropical system from organizing last week, but more favorable conditions allowed the system to become a tropical depression on Sunday afternoon.
Jump to: Prospect of strengthening in Gulf of Mexico | Early week downpours to soak Florida, Bahamas, Cuba | Tropical Depression 8 to approach North Carolina early this week | Other tropical concerns in the Atlantic
This is a closeup live loop of Tropical Depression 9. (NOAA/Satellite)
Prospect of strengthening in Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Depression 9 will enter a window where it may begin to strengthen on Monday afternoon.
The potential exists for the depression to organize and strengthen into a tropical storm as it churns into the central Gulf of Mexico early this week and then curves back toward the northeastern Gulf Coast later in the week.
The farther west into the central Gulf of Mexico the system tracks, the greater the potential for strengthening.

Latest indications point toward the system making landfall along the northeastern Gulf Coast between Alabama and the northwestern Florida Peninsula later this week.
"Enhanced showers and gusty thunderstorms can be expected with localized flooding possible along the system's path," AccuWeather Meteorologist Ed Vallee said.
Should the system intensify into a tropical storm prior to landfall, it would be accompanied onshore by a greater risk of flooding, strong winds and a storm surge.
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In this scenario, the system would likely then track along the coast of Georgia and Carolinas toward and during next weekend.
All residents from the northeastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance and review what preparations are needed if a strong tropical storm threatens.
Residents of Louisiana should also keep an eye on this system in the event it remains on a farther west course than currently anticipated.
The next tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin will be named "Hermine" followed by "Ian."
Early week downpours to soak Florida, Bahamas, Cuba
Despite the system currently struggling to strengthen and pushing westward, Florida, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas will remain at risk for increased downpours and locally gusty thunderstorms early this week.

The increase in drenching thunderstorms will gradually spread northward across the Florida Peninsula into Tuesday, threatening to cause localized flash flooding.
Rainfall could reach 6 inches or more in some locations, especially in the Florida Keys, the far southern Florida Peninsula, Cuba and the southwestern Bahamas.

"Where the thunderstorms are more robust, there could be damaging wind gusts, power outages and rough seas," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. Isolated waterspouts could also form.
Other tropical concerns in the Atlantic
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Tropical Depression 8 has formed. Gaston remains a hurricane but will stay east of Bermuda early this week.
Gaston became a major hurricane on Sunday afternoon around the same time that Tropical Depression 9 developed, reaching category 3 status.

In addition, another strong tropical disturbance will move westward from Africa in the final days of August and will likely develop later in the week or during Labor Day weekend.
This disturbance may not follow in the footsteps of Gaston but instead will have to be closely monitored as it could survive the journey toward the Caribbean Islands or into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the first full week of September.