Fulfilling the Promise of El Niño 2016: How the Phenomenon Affects Surfing

Holly Zynda
Published: August 30,2016

Far away storms cause consistent waves, since the fetch created by wind has more time to line up into a swell. Close storms, as with El Nino, can cause bigger but more inconsistent waves.
(Holly Zynda of Owl Intermedia)

As the winter of 2015 began, “El Niño” was the magic word on the parched lips of drought-beset Californians. Surfers in the West looked eagerly to their local forecasts, hoping to see the promise of the first “Super El Niño” in nearly two decades come to fruition, with its warm waters and storm swells. To understand the surf predictions for and results of this most recent El Niño, it is first necessary to understand the process.

What is El Niño?

The Pacific Ocean receives more sunlight, and accordingly more of the sun’s heat, than any other place on earth. In a normal year, east-to-west trade winds push warm surface water westward, where it “piles up,” so to speak, warming the air and causing monsoons and hurricanes around Indonesia in the East. Meanwhile, cooler water wells up off the coast of Peru to fill the void left by the vacating warm water, establishing a drier climate on the Pacific Coast of the Americas.

El Niño occurs during periods of weakened trade winds, which allow the warm water to remain more evenly spread and stymie the upwelling process. This reverses the weather patterns normally associated with various regions and in the process, has the potential to stir up furious hurricanes in the Western Americas.

While stormy weather can cause fun surf, it also creates runoff, polluting the waters, so the unexpectedly clear skies of the 2016 El Nino equated to more days in the water.
(Holly Zynda of Owl Intermedia)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How Does El Niño Affect Surfing Conditions?

The unusual churning and intermixing of water in the absence of regulating trade winds results in the oceanic version of indigestion: Storms — intense ones. And, storms beget waves — big ones.

During an El Niño pattern, much of that activity is expected to materialize as pummeling waves along the coasts of California and Hawaii. Rising ocean temperatures may contribute to storm production, giving surfers reason to expect strong swells, and when the water temperatures rise from 52-63℉ to 70-80℉, surfers can stay out longer, extending their sessions and making the whole experience of being in the water much more pleasant. It is a pattern often anticipated by water-sports enthusiasts.

In 1997, during the last strong El Niño, raging storms helped to perpetuate what Surfline.com dubbed “The Best Summer Ever.” During that year, among other swell-creating atmospheric events, Hurricane Linda became the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record and held that honor until Hurricane Patricia usurped the throne this past October.

The anticipated parallels between 1997-1998’s colossal El Niño event and the 2015-2016 Super El Niño reprise gave big-wave riders fervent hope for an excellent and extended season of good surf.

Did Super El Niño Meet Expectations?

It seemed as if El Niño left before it ever fully settled in. Water temperatures only rose for a short while. Thirsty Californians hoping for increased rainfall were disappointed by the output of Super El Niño, as storms onshore were not epically more productive than in recent years. However, this lack of rainfall also contributed to a lack of runoff, allowing surfers to get out in the water more than they typically would during El Niño.

Plus, the North Pacific saw increased (and surf-benefitting) storm activity during early 2016. On January 15, one of the largest swells in the past decade visited the Peahi on the coast of Maui, attracting throngs of limit-testing daredevils. Overall, this season did not quite match the conditions seen in 1997, but its proportions were still enough to support some incredible sets.

El Niño conditions are never a guarantee. Predictions were made, but as is always the case, weather systems refuse to conform precisely to expectation. Yet, perhaps the thrill of hoping (and the intense joy of landing the perfect 20-footer after a week of ankle-high surf) was fulfilling enough.

Holly Zynda is a copy editor, proofreader and writer with a lifelong passion for the written word. She owns and operates Owl Intermedia, a content production and editing company, and has provided writing and editing services for companies ranging from GoPro and Reputation.com to The California Environmental Protection Agency and Genentech.