Heavy Rain, Flooding Target Plains and Midwest

Brian Donegan
Published: August 25,2016
Heavy rain and flash flooding will be a concern for parts of the Plains and Midwest over the next several days as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continuously surges into the region.
The Gulf of Mexico moisture will be drawn up by southerly winds at the surface. Those surface winds will then interact with disturbances in the southwest wind flow aloft.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Current Radar, Watches and Warnings

Rainfall Forecast

A broad swath of 1- to 3-inch rain amounts is expected by the middle of next week, from northwestern Texas and northern Oklahoma through eastern and central Kansas, northern Missouri and west-central Illinois.

Rainfall Forecast

While it won't be raining at all times over the next several days, showers and thunderstorms will likely pop up each day, especially in the afternoon.
(CITIES: Amarillo | Wichita | Kansas City | St. Louis | Champaign, Illinois)
As is typical with thunderstorms this time of year, heavier downpours are possible over a short period of time. This could lead to isolated rain amounts of 3 to 5 inches or more, yielding the risk for flash flooding.
Most of this rain will fall through Sunday, but the threat for showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into the middle of next week.
There is also a possibility of some severe weather with these thunderstorms. Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the severe threats late this week.

Severe Weather Forecast

Friday

• Forecast: Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley. Some non-severe storms are possible during the morning, but a few clusters of storms are expected to develop in the afternoon, and these may reach severe limits.
• Threats: Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main threats. Flash flooding is also possible.
• Cities: Kansas City | Omaha | Rapid City

Friday's Thunderstorm Forecast

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MORE: Plains, Midwest Severe Weather and Flooding