3 Things To Know About Tropical Storm Hermine

Chris Dolce
Published: August 31,2016
Tropical Storm Hermine is in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to impact Florida and the Southeast coast through early Saturday.
Here's a rundown of what you need to know right now.
(FORECAST: Tropical Storm Hermine) 

1.) When Will It Make Landfall, And How Strong Will it Be?

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) projects that Hermine's landfall will be Thursday night or early Friday, with the center most likely moving ashore somewhere near Tallahassee along the Florida panhandle.
Although the exact intensity is still uncertain, the NHC expects it to be a Category 1 hurricane when it moves inland. A hurricane warning was issued Wednesday night along the Florida panhandle, from the Suwannee River to Mexico Beach, including Tallahassee. A hurricane watch remains in effect from roughly New Port Richey to the Destin area. Winds of 74 mph are possible on Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

Projected Path

Keep in mind, however, that impacts related to Hermine are already affecting Florida. Let's discuss that next.

2.) Four Potential Threats

Rainfall Flooding
Heavy rain has already caused flooding across the Florida peninsula Wednesday and Wednesday evening, well ahead of the center of the storm arriving. More heavy rain will move across northern and central Florida as it makes landfall Thursday. Some bands of rain could linger into Friday in the Florida peninsula.
Coastal Flooding
Also important to note is that coastal flooding from storm surge is expected along the northwest Florida Gulf Coast. How significant this threat will be depends on the exact intensity of the storm near landfall.
Areas along the Florida Gulf Coast from the Tampa/St. Petersburg metro to Apalachee Bay are typically very prone to storm surge flooding, even in weaker storms.
High surf and dangerous rip currents are also likely along Florida's Gulf Coast.
Gusty Winds
The most likely area for strong winds capable of causing some tree damage and power outages will be where the center moves ashore along the Florida panhandle. This is also possible with gusty winds in any squalls well away from the center. As mentioned before, this will greatly depend on the storm's intensity.
Tornadoes
Some isolated tornadoes are also possible in northern/central Florida and far south Georgia on Thursday and Thursday night as the center moves inland.
For more details on all of those impacts, see our full article at this link.

Rainfall Forecast

3.) Coastal Southeast Will Also See Impacts...East Coast Too?

After making landfall, Hermine will track northeastward and impact parts of the Southeast coast Thursday night into early Saturday. This is due to a southward dip in the jet stream in the eastern states that is pulling the system that direction.

Friday's weather map showing the low being pulled northeastward by the jet stream dip.

Tropical-storm-force winds, coastal flooding, rough surf and heavy rain are all possible impacts from south Georgia to the Carolinas as the low tracks near or inland from the coast.
This weekend into early next week, there is at least some chance that Hermine could affect the Northeast U.S. in some way; however, details on impacts, if any, are very uncertain. For more details on what may happen in the Northeast, see this link.
The future track of Hermine depends on how it interacts with energy in the aforementioned jet stream dip that is steering it. Check back for updates.

MORE: Hurricanes, By The Numbers