Invest 92L Near Coast of Africa Could Eventually Develop Into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm

Chris Dolce
Published: August 31,2016
Another tropical wave has emerged off the African coast this week, and it will be an area to watch closely for the foreseeable future as it plows westward across the Atlantic.
(MORE: What is a Tropical Wave?)
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the tropical wave was located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. As of Wednesday evening, the NHC said that the system had a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the next five days.
This system has been dubbed Invest 92L, which is a designation the NHC gives to areas of interest that have any potential to develop down the road.
(MORE: What is an Invest?)

Atlantic and Africa Infrared Satellite

Where Is It Headed and Is It a Threat?

It's far too early to know whether this system will eventually threaten any land in a significant way. This, of course, assumes it will develop in the first place as computer model forecast guidance had suggested for the last few days.
The atmospheric pattern this week will feature the Bermuda-Azores high becoming stronger and building westward across the Atlantic Ocean.
This will steer 92L toward the west or west-northwest on the southern periphery of the aforementioned central Atlantic high.
Essentially, there is no escape route for this system to move northwest and then north into the central Atlantic, as occurred with Hurricane Gaston.
The wave is battling plenty of dry air in the eastern Atlantic and this will inhibit development, at least for the next two to three days.

High pressure will be locked in place across the Atlantic, forcing this new system westward later in the week.

However, interests in the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this potential system throughout the week ahead. Any potential impact would not arrive in parts of the Lesser Antilles until late this weekend or early next week.
It's also possible that it gains enough latitude while moving west-northwest in the Atlantic to avoid any brush with the Caribbean Islands.
Beyond that point, it's too early to speculate on any areas farther west that could be affected downstreeam next week.
Always keep in mind that forecasting the track and intensity of any tropical cyclone or potential tropical cyclone can be extremely challenging, even just days in advance.
(MORE: Why Long-Range Model Forecasts in the Tropics Can't Often Be Trusted)
Since we are talking about a situation that is a week or more out in time, there are many unknown variables down the road, including:

• How much dry air and wind shear could impede development.
• What the steering wind flow aloft will be near the East Coast of the U.S. and western Atlantic Ocean.

It's also a reminder that we are now in the climatologically most active time of the Atlantic hurricane season.
(MORE: When Atlantic Season Peak Arrives)
This time of year, tropical waves, also known as African easterly waves, line up over Africa south of the Sahara Desert, and emerge into the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
A fraction of these tropical waves serve as the seed for an Atlantic basin tropical storm or hurricane each season.
Regardless of whether this system becomes a threat, now is a good time to make sure you have a plan before a hurricane hits.

MORE: Retired Atlantic Hurricanes and Tropical Storms