5 Things to Know About Hurricane Earl

Chris Dolce
Published: August 3,2016
Hurricane Earl is churning west through the Caribbean Sea and heading toward Belize. Here are five things to know about Earl.
(FORECAST: Latest on Earl)

1. Earl is No Direct Threat to the U.S.

High pressure in the south-central U.S. should steer the system towards Belize, Mexico late this week.

Earl will not make a direct impact on the U.S.
The steering is being influenced by the clockwise wind flow around an area of upper-level high pressure over the south-central U.S. That will keep Earl squashed to the south, most likely pushing it into Belize, and possibly eastern Mexico thereafter.
We should also note that Earl could bring rip currents to the Texas Gulf Coast this weekend, even with the center staying well south.

2. Life-Threatening Flash Flooding and Mudslides Possible

Mexico along with Belize, Honduras and Guatemala have a history of seeing major flooding from tropical storms and hurricanes. Playing a role in the flood danger is the mountainous terrain in parts of those countries.
The National Hurricane Center said that life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible from Earl.
Rainfall totals of 8-12 inches (locally higher) are expected along the path of Earl in parts of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula.
(MORE: Belize Lashed By Strong Winds, Rain)

Rainfall Forecast

3. This is the Seventh Time Earl Has Been Used as an Atlantic Name

Path of Hurricane Earl from Aug. 25 - Sept. 4, 2010.

This is the seventh hurricane season that the name Earl has been used for an Atlantic storm.
Earl was first used in 1980, and then again every six years thereafter: 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2010, and now 2016.
Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm name lists repeat every six years, unless one is so destructive and/or deadly that the at World Meteorological Organization committee votes to retire that name from future lists.
(MORE: Retired Atlantic Names)
The 1998 version of Earl hit the U.S. as a Category 1 hurricane in Florida's Big Bend region, resulting in significant storm surge flooding.
In 2010, Earl was a close call for the U.S., passing just off the coast of North Carolina's Outer Banks as a hurricane. Even though Earl passed well off the coast, it still brought storm surge flooding to North Carolina along with large, battering waves to much of the East Coast.

4. Earl is a Rarity for the Western Caribbean in Recent Years

The western Caribbean, a swath from roughly Jamaica to the Yucatan Peninsula, has been very quiet the last several years. Prior to Earl, just one tropical storm has affected that region of the Atlantic basin since the start of 2013.

This is quite a change from the previous three-year period (2010-2012), which had about 10 named storms in that region.
(MORE: West Caribbean Tropical Activity Lull)

5. Earl Was Deadly Even Before it Formed

Earl formed on Tuesday from a tropical wave that we've been tracking since last Thursday designated Invest 97-L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
(MORE: What is a Tropical Wave?)
In the days thereafter, Invest 97-L was hauling westward at up to 30 mph as it moved from the central Atlantic and into the Caribbean. That fast forward movement in combination with dry air helped limit its development potential late last week and over the weekend.
The tropical wave was impactful, however, in the northern Caribbean islands. Stormy weather conditions from the tropical wave that became Earl likely contributed to the deaths of six people in the Dominican Republic.
This is a good example of why you don't need a named storm to have significant weather impacts during hurricane season.
(MORE: Six Deaths From Tropical Wave That Became Earl)

Projected Path

Atmospheric conditions became more favorable in the western Caribbean and the forward speed slowed some to start this week. That allowed an area of surface low pressure to finally form early Tuesday, and the NHC declared that Tropical Storm Earl had formed. Earl became a Category 1 hurricane east of Belize.