Tropical Storm Hermine is strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to make landfall Thursday night along the Florida panhandle as a Category 1 hurricane. Hermine will bring heavy rain, storm surge flooding, high winds and even some tornadoes to not only Florida, but also the coastal Southeast.
(MORE: Latest News | Interactive Storm Tracker)
Hermine could also go on to impact parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions. For more details on what may happen in those regions, see this link.
A hurricane warning was issued Wednesday night along the Florida panhandle, from the Suwannee River to Mexico Beach, as the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast calls for Hermine to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane prior to landfall. This warning area includes Tallahassee.
Wednesday morning, tropical storm warnings were hoisted along a swath of the Florida Gulf Coast from roughly Panama City Beach to the New Port Richey area north of St. Petersburg. The tropical storm warning was extended westward along the Florida panhandle to Destin and inland into southwestern Georgia and extreme southeastern Alabama. Winds of 40 mph are likely to begin on Thursday afternoon, and could hamper readiness efforts.
A hurricane watch remains in effect from roughly New Port Richey to the Destin area. Winds of 74 mph are possible on Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.
On the Atlantic coast, a tropical storm watch has been issued for northeast Florida, southeast and south-central Georgia, and parts of coastal South Carolina.
Watches and Warnings
Current Status
Tropical Storm Hermine was centered about 295 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida, as of Wednesday night.
Current Storm Information
Infrared Satellite Image
It remains to be seen how much wind shear will relax in the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night, which will have a big influence on how strong Hermine can ultimately become before its Gulf Coast landfall.
Forecast Track/Intensity
As the NHC forecast path shows, Hermine is forecast to eventually accelerate northeast on a path toward the Florida Gulf Coast on Thursday.
Projected Path
(MORE: Where Every U.S. Hurricane Has Hit Since 1985 | Record Gulf Hurricane Drought)
After its Gulf landfall, the storm will likely track close enough to the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas Friday and Saturday to bring wind and rain, there.
Impacts
Storm Surge
The combination of heavy rainfall and storm surge around the time of the system's landfall Thursday night or early Friday could combine to produce life-threatening flooding along parts of Florida's Gulf Coast.Here are the potential peak water rise forecasts from the NHC if it occurs at high tide:
- Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka: 4 to 7 feet
- Chassahowitzka to Aripeka: 2 to 4 feet
- Destin to Indian Pass: 1 to 3 feet
- Aripeka to Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay: 1 to 3 feet
- Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear: 1 to 3 feet
The northeast Gulf of Mexico coast from Apalachee Bay to north of St. Petersburg is prone to storm surge flooding thanks to the West Florida Shelf, where the sea floor rises significantly, allowing water driven by a tropical cyclone's winds to pile up.
Why parts of the Florida Gulf Coast, namely from north of St. Petersburg to Apalachee Bay are prone to storm surge flooding.Rainfall Flooding
The threat of heavy rainfall is not a function of tropical cyclone intensity, but rather the system's slow movement and availability of deep, tropical moisture, as we saw with an unnamed system earlier this month triggering Louisiana's epic flooding.
Radar, Watches, and Warnings
However, this system will have a deep fetch of tropical moisture along its eastern and southern flanks. Therefore, bands of heavy rain could train along and south of its path over the Florida peninsula possibly into Friday.
The heaviest total rainfall from this system appears to line up over Florida, where many locations look primed to pick up 5 to 10 inches of total rainfall, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches possible.
(FORECAST: Miami | Key West | Tampa)
Rainfall Outlook Through Saturday
(MORE: Rainfall Flood Concern for Saturated Gulf Coast)
A slug of heavy rain should also push northeast into southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas Thursday through at least early Saturday. Some localized flooding will be possible depending on the track of the low.
Coastal parts of the Southeast could see 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with locally up to 10 inches in spots.
Winds
Tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds may arrive near and to the east of the system by late Thursday afternoon or evening along parts of Florida's Big Bend and panhandle in the warned areas.In addition, tropical storm-force winds are possible inland over parts of north Florida, spreading into southeast Georgia and the coastal Carolinas.
Chance of Tropical Storm-Force Winds
Tornado Threat
As with most landfalling tropical cyclones, there is a threat of tornadoes embedded in rainbands.Thursday and Thursday night, this threat is focused in parts of north Florida and south Georgia.
Areas shaded in yellow have the highest threat of tornadoes embedded in rainbands according to the Storm Prediction Center.(MORE: Hurricanes That Produced the Most Tornadoes)
Check back with us at weather.com for any important forecast changes in the days ahead. Now is a good time to make sure you have a plan before a hurricane hits.
Storm History
Before this system formed into a tropical cyclone, it soaked parts of the Caribbean, Bahamas and Cuba.Late last week, more than 1,700 people were displaced from their homes in the Dominican Republic due to heavy rainfall.
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