By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
August 24,2016; 11:33PM,EDT
A budding tropical disturbance has the potential to strengthen significantly and reach Florida and the Bahamas with strong winds, coastal flooding and torrential rainfall during Sunday and Monday.
Only one of two active Atlantic tropical systems poses a significant threat to land during the next 10 days. That system, dubbed 99L, has the potential to become Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Hermine this week.
This is a closeup loop of 99L. (NOAA/Satellite)The disturbance, currently located about 1,000 miles southeast of Miami, is forecast to take a general west to west-northwest path near Puerto Rico on Wednesday night and near Hispaniola on Thursday.
"The exact track of 99L will have a big impact on when the system strengthens," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
Interaction with the mountainous terrain in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will cap the strengthening potential through Thursday.
Recall that last year, Erika struggled with the large islands in the Caribbean and diminished upon interacting with Hispaniola.
However, given the circumstances this time, the system could become Tropical Depression Eight, followed by a tropical storm at any time this week. This, especially if the center of the storm stays north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
"99L has the potential to become very well-organized southeast of Florida this weekend," Kottlowski said.
Rapid strengthening is possible if the system stays north of the coast of Cuba this weekend, in which case the system could become a hurricane upon or prior to approaching Florida waters.
If the system ends up tracking over Cuba, then significant strengthening could delayed further.
"The last hurricane to strike the Florida Peninsula was Wilma during October 2005," Kottlowski said.
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Wilma made landfall near Cape Romano, Florida, with winds of 120 mph, on Oct. 24.
"The last hurricane to strike the Florida Peninsula during August was Katrina in 2005; Katrina was also the last hurricane to strike the Florida Peninsula from a southeasterly direction," Kottlowski said.
The intensity of the squalls, winds and seas will depend on how quickly 99L strengthens along the way.
Regardless of the strength of 99L, gusty showers, thunderstorms and rough seas will spread westward. Rip currents will also increase in strength and number. Flash flooding and mudslides will be a more immediate concern from the Virgin Islands to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
Seas could become very dangerous, especially for small craft from the northeastern coast of Cuba through much of the Bahamas during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
"All people living and having interests in and around the Bahamas, Cuba and Florida should closely monitor the movement of this evolving tropical system through this weekend," Kottlowski said.
On Sunday, people along the southeast coast of the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys and northern Cuba should be prepared for deteriorating weather and sea conditions. Squalls could increase and seas and surf may get rough.
Depending on the strength of 99L, there is the possibility of power outages and property damage from gusty winds and flooding.
Property owners in the potential path may want to consider taking preventive measures well ahead of the system's approach. For example, locate storm shutters and make sure the generator is operational.
During the first part of next week, a path north of Florida, just off the Atlantic coast of the United States is likely to be blocked, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
Because of this, 99L could be steered into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
If the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, a landfall along the upper Gulf coast of the U.S. as a hurricane would be a possibility during the middle part of next week.
Ole Pedersen ·
Maybe a hurricane will blow the Zika mosquitos away.
Nibelkys Pinales
Hispaniola???
1
Jeff Maslan ·
Works at Self-Employed
Haiti and the DR share the island of Hispaniola.
Thiago Bahia
You don't know what/where Hispaniola is? C'mon! That's 7th grade world history
Kathay Garcia
You don't mention the Dominican Republic. There are a lot of American boaters here?
George Islas El Sobras ·
Hispaniola is the DR
Rosemary Schenone Pagano ·
Lord,
I'm asking you for all Florida residents, please cancel any hurricanes
and all bad weather. We really don't need any more disasters. Amen.
Ralph Meyer ·
Works at Beach Bum
God isn't a jukebox, He doesn't take requests.
Francis Hill
Ralph Meyer your right and wrong, HE does take requests but HE is the creator and LORD of the Universe can I get an AMEN
George Islas El Sobras ·
God doesnt control weather
Eric Schlueter ·
You
ever pee in the toilet? Its clear when you sit, yellow when you get
up.. hope hope that prayer is sarcastic... Cause frankly you folk with
those illwitted prayers bore me. Pick that physics book up, and study
some basics of life vs memorizing some prayers. You'd be better of
understanding the basics of thermodynamics, osmosis, and hydrology
(+20-30 other specific areas of science).. without weather..no life
period, a balance..rain is forced stopped in one place, another place
gets hit harder (what goes up, must come down).. you religious folks and
your prayers of not getting hit by a storm, are as superficial as your
intelligence. Omnipresence, is something else.. and a few things can be
manipulated, but messing with the weather, is about as crazy as all the
folk that polluted the environment to the degree now, that folk HAVE to
make some drastic changes no different than what happened during WWII..
cause.. instead of worrying about air raids.. its more powerful storms.
Rog Miller ·
George Islas El Sobras is right. I control the weather!
Constance Wilkinson ·
Ralph Meyer Our Mighty God, Jesus Christ hears all prayers. He is good. Sometime the answer is yes. Sometimes it is no.
Courtney Crouch
Sanae Sentissi Khabir ·
Works at Indiana University
I love you Hbiba ❤️❤️😘😘😘 thank you for thinking of me 💞💞💞💞💞💞
Haylee Zion ·
Breanna Wortham lataaaaa bitchhhhh
James Hamilton ·
Now you tell me...which way do i go..i cant go north because of tornadoes.
Mike Vogelpohl ·
I just hope when your house comes down it does so on a witch.
Chris Kentrus ·
wrong information as always.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Emerio Diaz Jr.
That's
not the Tropical Low your article references. You article references
Gaston. What is being monitored right now is 99L which could form into
Hermine.
Dan Rittmann ·
Does that mean that it could end up dumping more rain over Baton Rouge? Gonna need more Play -Doh.
Steve Beatty ·
Maybe the president can bring some this time if he's not too busy playing golf.
Loretta Moser
i
have a western carribean cruise next week, so i think it's out of the
path, but should I be worried being at sea then? do you think this will
affect central florida ? i iwll have family there when i am gone
Alex Sosnowski ·
The
system will depart the area from the Bahamas to western Cuba on Monday,
most likey and could be a Gulf of Mexico concern into Wednesday. Cruise
ships often go around the storm and rough seas. So it may depend on
where you are saling from.
Loretta Moser
Alex Sosnowski leaving out of Tampa but also worried about family in Central Florida
Renee Triesler ·
Oh
no! We have a Family Vacation booked in Florida & the Bahamas,
starting next Wednesday! The plane flights & Resort are paid for
& "non-refundable"! � Anyone have suggestions/ideas??
George McCarthy ·
Works at Valpak
Not a good time for an Eastern Carribean Cruise
Alex Sosnowski ·
Looks like a developing low-level center near the British Virgin Islands at this time.
Jackie Coleman ·
I can go skim boarding in the front yard now I cannot wait oh boy.
Courtney Bowers
Cory Klein ·
Weather.com shows 40% fri. 20% sat. 60% sun. 20% monday. Weird
Great, just what we need!
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