4 Things To Know About Tropical Depression Nine

Chris Dolce
Published: August 30,2016
Tropical Depression Nine is in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to head toward Florida as a tropical storm late this week.
Here's a rundown of what you need to know right now.
(FORECAST: Tropical Depression Nine) 

1.) When Will It Make Landfall, And How Strong Will it Be?

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) projects that landfall will be Thursday, with the center most likely moving ashore somewhere north of Tampa in the Big Bend region.
Although the exact intensity is still uncertain, the NHC expects it to be a tropical storm when it moves inland, possibly a strong one.

Projected Path

Keep in mind, however, that impacts related to this system are already affecting Florida. Let's discuss that next.

2.) Four Potential Threats

Rainfall Flooding
Heavy rain may cause flooding across the Florida peninsula Tuesday and Wednesday, well before the center of the storm arrives. More heavy rain will move across northern and central Florida as it makes landfall Thursday. Some bands of rain could linger into Friday in the Florida peninsula.
Coastal Flooding
Also important to note is that some coastal flooding from storm surge is possible along the northwest Florida Gulf Coast. How significant this threat will be depends on the exact intensity of the storm near landfall, which is uncertain.
Areas along the Florida Gulf Coast from the Tampa/St. Petersburg metro to Apalachee Bay are typically very prone to storm surge flooding, even in weaker storms.
High surf and dangerous rip currents are also likely along Florida's Gulf Coast.
Gusty Winds
The most likely area for strong winds capable of causing some tree damage and power outages, if any, will be where the center moves ashore in northwest Florida. This is also possible with gusty winds in any squalls well away from the center. As mentioned before, this will greatly depend on the storm's intensity.
Tornadoes
Some isolated tornadoes are also possible in northern/central Florida and far south Georgia on Thursday as the center moves inland.

Rainfall Forecast

3.) It Will Likely Be a Lopsided Storm

As the storm approaches landfall, it's likely that much of the impacts from it will be to the east and northeast of the low pressure center. Improving weather conditions are likely after the low moves through on its western side.
That is because a southward dip in the jet stream, which will pull the storm northeast toward Florida, will also increase wind shear. In response, much of the worst weather will be skewed to the right side of the low, or to its east.

Atmospheric setup on Thursday with the storm approaching landfall on the northwest Florida coast. A southward dip in the jet stream across the eastern states will push much of the worst weather associated with the storm to its east side.

4.) Coastal Southeast Could Also See Impacts

Depending on the track of the low after it moves across Florida, parts of the Southeast coast could also see impacts Thursday night into early Saturday.
Gusty winds, rough surf and locally heavy rain are possible from south Georgia to the eastern Carolinas depending on how close the low tracks to the coast.

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