Severe storms to raise flash flood risk from Texas to Alabama at midweek

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

March 22,2016; 11:00PM,EDT

 

A portion of the southern United States will face the return of severe thunderstorms and flooding downpours at midweek.
Severe weather will erupt as a cold front slices into the surge of warmth set to bring a dramatic upswing in temperatures during the first half of this week.
"Storms will initiate ahead of a cold front across eastern Texas and spread northeastward into the Ozark Mountains and central Mississippi Valley into early Thursday morning," AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions Storm Warning Meteorologist Alex Avalos said.

"Storms will be capable of producing mainly large hail and damaging winds," Avalos said, "but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out."
Cities at risk for the violent thunderstorms Wednesday evening and Wednesday night include Dallas and San Antonio, Texas; Fayetteville and Little Rock, Arkansas; Springfield, Missouri; and Shreveport, Louisiana.
The key for the magnitude of the severe weather will be if the prime heating of the day will coincide with ideal conditions aloft, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
"If the strongest winds aloft wait until after dark to move over the region, then a major outbreak of severe weather could be avoided," Sosnowski said.
The severe weather will wane some for early Thursday morning before becoming more numerous farther east in the afternoon after some daytime heating.
"The potential will exist for a few severe thunderstorms on Thursday across Louisiana, central-southern Mississippi, Alabama and potentially even into the far western Florida Panhandle," Avalos said. "Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns."
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Thunderstorms capable of producing hail may also extend northward into northern Mississippi and western Tennessee.
Thursday's threat zone includes New Orleans; Jackson, Mississippi; Birmingham and Mobile, Alabama; and Pensacola, Florida.
Residents with any outdoor activities should keep an eye to the sky and seek shelter if thunderstorms develop.
John Jensenius Jr., Lightning Safety Specialist at NOAA, reported that the first lightning death of 2016 occurred on Saturday.
"A 28-year-old woman was struck [Friday night] while sheltering in a personal tent at a blues festival in Larose, Louisiana. She died on Saturday," he said.
The thunderstorms later Wednesday into Thursday will also produce downpours that raise another concern for the flood-ravaged lower Mississippi Valley.

Flood water swamps I-10 on Louisiana border with Texas

The greatest risk from flooding will be in urban areas and along small streams.
"The fast movement of the storms will limit the amount of rainfall in the hardest-hit flood areas from earlier in the month," Sosnowski said.