- Typhoon Kilo has picked up some speed, moving west, to the west of the International Date Line.
- Kilo is expected to strengthen, and may become the equivalent of a Category 4 storm in the western Pacific this weekend or early in the week ahead.
- Kilo is not an immediate threat to land, but could survive as a tropical cyclone for another week, if not longer.
- We can't yet rule out a close pass to the Japanese mainland late next week or early next weekend.
- At one point this past Saturday evening into Sunday morning, Kilo was one of three Category 4 hurricanes in the Pacific, joined by Jimena and Ignacio.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Kilo's Location, History, and Forecast Path
Projected Path
It's...Still...Going
Kilo was first classified as a depression almost 700 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, on August 20.While, thankfully, never getting its convective act together in time to pose a threat to Hawaii, Kilo finally did so roughly one week later well west-southwest of the islands, intensifying to Category 4 strength.
And it's not done yet.
Instead of turning north, getting caught by the jet stream, and turning into a post-tropical storm over the North Pacific Ocean, high pressure aloft over the western Pacific to the east-southeast of Japan is expected to eventually accelerate Kilo westward into the new week ahead. For the time-being, Kilo is drifting west at a very slow pace.
Kilo may, eventually, come uncomfortably close to the Japanese mainland late in the new week ahead, though eventually the jet stream should catch up with Kilo and turn it back northeast away from the mainland.
Kilo is also expected to strengthen through early next week, possibly to a Category 4 or stronger equivalent typhoon, thanks to a lack of wind shear, favorable exhaust from the jet stream well to the north, and very warm sea-surface temperatures.
Kilo is already over 2,400 statute miles from its genesis point as a depression two weeks ago. This is roughly the shortest flight distance between Washington, D.C. and San Francisco.
While that distance is not atypical for tropical cyclones, Kilo may persist as a tropical cyclone well into next week, another seven or more days, before the jet stream finally catches it and it becomes a post-tropical cyclone.
According to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, the longest-lived tropical cyclone on record in any basin was Hurricane/Typhoon John, which lasted for 30 days ending early on September 10, 1994.
As you can see in the HRD list, tropical cyclones lasting three weeks or more are quite rare. Kilo may join that rare company next week.
Furthermore, time spent as a Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclone may also approach record territory for the Pacifc Basin, according to Colorado State University tropical expert, Dr. Phil Klotzbach (Wunderblog).
Klotzbach also said Tuesday Kilo became the third tropical cyclone to cross the International Dateline this year, breaking the old record for any year set in 1997.
Hawaii in the Rearview Mirror
Despite Kilo's inability to organize last week, the large-scale circulation near Hawaii brought enhanced moisture to the Aloha State, leading to locally heavy rainfall.Honolulu picked up 4.48 inches of rain from early last Sunday morning (Aug. 23) through early this past Tuesday morning (local time), resulting in some road flooding and road closures on Oahu, Maui and the Big Island. Rain rates of 3-4 inches per hour were estimated by radar early Tuesday morning approaching Kauai.
Thunderstorms over the islands produced up to an estimated 10,000 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes over a 24-hour period from midday last Sunday (Aug. 23) through midday last Monday (Aug. 24), according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
Honolulu's 3.53 inches on Aug. 24 was an all-time record for any August day, topping a 2.92-inch deluge from Aug. 4, 2004, and propelled the Hawaiian capital to its wettest month of August, besting that record which had stood since 1888 (4.47 inches).
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