Tropical Development Possible Across the Atlantic This Week

By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist

September 13,2015; 9:48PM,EDT

 

 

Having just passed the peak of the hurricane season in the Atlantic, a couple tropical waves will be monitored for development this week across the basin.
The first tropical wave, located to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, is expected to slowly organize through the week and could become the next system in the Atlantic.

According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Evan Duffey, "This wave has a decent pocket of convection that will have opportunities to develop a defined low-level circulation."
The jet stream is expected to dig southward across the central Atlantic through midweek and cause this system to steer northward over the open waters of the Atlantic, thus preventing any impacts to the United States.
"The only true factor holding back this convection at the moment is its proximity to the equator, where there is not enough atmospheric spin to encourage the formation of low pressure," Duffey said. "This system will move to the west-northwest over the next few days away from the equator."
A second wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa into Monday, which could develop over time.
This system, which looks to track farther south than the first wave, may take a track more west to west-northwest over the open waters of the Atlantic.
It is too early to determine whether this second feature would be any threat to land.
RELATED:
AccuWeather Hurricane Center 2015
Wind, Rain from Henri to Target Western Europe
Historic Flooding Strikes Joso, Japan, in Wake of Etau
Both of these systems will track over warm waters in the eastern Atlantic, but battle moderate wind shear. This shear will likely cause these systems to develop slowly through the week.
Wind shear is defined as the change in wind speed and/or direction with height. Greater changes in wind speed or direction leads to stronger wind shear, which inhibits tropical development.
Should one system intensify into a tropical storm, it will be given the name Ida. Should both systems develop, the second storm will be named Joaquin.
The Gulf of Mexico is also being monitored for an increase in activity this week, although developmental odds at this point are rather low.

Despite recently passing the peak of the hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin, there currently exists no named features.
Not only is the Atlantic Basin currently quiet of any tropical systems, all other basins across the globe are also quiet at this time except for the far western Pacific where Tropical Storm Vamco formed near Vietnam on Sunday afternoon EDT.
The remnants of Linda across the eastern Pacific remain well west of the Baja California Peninsula and may bring welcome rainfall to Southern California early this week.
A total of eight tropical systems have developed in the Atlantic so far this season. The most recent system was Henri, who is tracking toward western Europe as a tropical rainstorm.
While we just passed the peak of the hurricane season on Sept. 11, tropical systems can still develop well into the autumn season. The official end to the hurricane season is Nov. 30.
AccuWeather will continue to provide updates across all ocean basins this week for development.