By:
Jeff Masters
, 2:43PM,GMT on September 12,2015
Figure 1. MODIS image of the tropical wave south of the Cape Verde islands from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at approximately 8 am EDT Saturday, September 12, 2015. The Cape Verde islands are visible at the upper right. Image credit: NASA.
Gulf of Mexico disturbance bringing heavy rains to Mexico
An area of disturbed weather has formed in the Western Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche in association with a cold front that pushed south of Texas and has stalled over Mexico and its offshore waters. This disturbance is bringing heavy rains to the coast of Mexico, but none of our reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone development are predicting that a tropical depression will form in the Gulf over the next five days, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The Mexican Weather Service is warning that rainfall amounts of up to 4" may affect portions of Mexico from this disturbance.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
NHC is mentioning two other areas of interest in their Tropical Weather Outlook, neither of which are a threat to become tropical cyclones that will fact land. The remains of Tropical Storm Grace are bringing a few showers to Puerto Rico and surrounding islands, but high wind shear will discourage any development. An area of disturbed weather in the Central Atlantic about about 1000 miles southwest of the Azores, far from any land areas, is being given 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively.
Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has an update on the tropics and on the U.S. "Very Active Early Fall Pattern" setting up in his Friday afternoon post.
Have a great weekend!
Jeff Masters
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