Kilo May Strengthen to a Super Typhoon, Become One of Longest-Lived Tropical Cyclones

September 1,2015

• Kilo will cross the International Dateline soon, becoming a typhoon once doing so.
• Kilo is expected to strengthen, and may become yet another super typhoon in the western Pacific this week.
• Kilo is not an immediate threat to land, but could survive as a tropical cyclone for the next 10 days, or more. 
• At one point Saturday evening into Sunday morning, Kilo was one of three Category 4 hurricanes in the Pacific, joined by Jimena and Ignacio.

(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)

Kilo's Current Location and Historical Track

Projected Path

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's...Still...Going

Kilo was first classified as a depression almost 700 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, on August 20.
While, thankfully, never getting its convective act together in time to pose a threat to Hawaii, Kilo finally did so roughly one week later well west-southwest of the islands, intensifying to Category 4 strength.
And it's not done yet.
Instead of turning north, getting caught by the jet stream, and turning into a post-tropical storm over the North Pacific Ocean, high pressure aloft over the western Pacific to the east-southeast of Japan is expected to eventually send Kilo westward into next week.
That could bring Kilo uncomfortably close to the Japanese mainland next week, though eventually the jet stream should catch up with Kilo and turn it back northeast.
This means Kilo may live as a strong typhoon well into next week, 10 days from now, or longer.
According to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, the longest-lived tropical cyclone on record in any basin was Hurricane/Typhoon John, which lasted for 30 days ending early on September 10, 1994.
As you can see in the HRD list, tropical cyclones lasting three weeks or more are quite rare. Kilo may join that rare company next week.
Furthermore, time spent as a Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclone may also approach record territory for the Pacifc Basin, according to Colorado State University tropical expert, Dr. Phil Klotzbach (Wunderblog).

Hawaii in the Rearview Mirror

Despite Kilo's inability to organize last week, the large-scale circulation near Hawaii brought enhanced moisture to the Aloha State, leading to locally heavy rainfall.
Honolulu picked up 4.48 inches of rain from early last Sunday morning (Aug. 23) through early this past Tuesday morning (local time), resulting in some road flooding and road closures on Oahu, Maui and the Big Island. Rain rates of 3-4 inches per hour were estimated by radar early Tuesday morning approaching Kauai.
Thunderstorms over the islands produced up to an estimated 10,000 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes over a 24-hour period from midday last Sunday (Aug. 23) through midday last Monday (Aug. 24), according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
Honolulu's 3.53 inches on Aug. 24 was an all-time record for any August day, topping a 2.92-inch deluge from Aug. 4, 2004, and propelled the Hawaiian capital to its wettest month of August, besting that record which had stood since 1888 (4.47 inches).

MORE: Hurricane Iniki, 1992