Sunday, September 20, 2015

Coastal System May Soak US East Coast Late Week; Ida Remains Over Open Atlantic

By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist
September 20,2015; 9:17PM,EDT
 
 
An area of low pressure off the Southeast coast continues to struggle to become a tropical system, but future development and a soaking for a part of the East Coast cannot be ruled out for later this week.
JUMP TO: Tropical Storm Ida
The broad area of low pressure being monitored by the AccuWeather Hurricane Center is losing its battle with wind shear for potential tropical development into Monday.
"Despite spinning over the warm waters off the Southeast coast, thunderstorm activity has become displaced well to its northeast and will get drawn up along the frontal boundary that pushed through the Northeast earlier in the weekend," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.
Southeast Extended Regional Weather Forecast
"The front, however, will not make much progress after departing the East Coast," said Pydynowski. "It and what is left of the low will instead linger offshore and lead to a zone of unsettled weather over the western Atlantic."
Other lows may also form this week along the boundary, and conditions could also be favorable for tropical development.
"Low pressure systems riding boundaries off the East Coast can be very surprising; it only takes a good cluster of thunderstorm activity around the center of the low to allow a depression to form," AccuWeather Meteorologist Evan Duffey added.

If a tropical storm manages to take shape, it would be given the name Joaquin.
Eventually, an area of high pressure building over Atlantic Canada may steer a weak area of low pressure or a more organized coastal system westward or northwestward into or slightly closer to the U.S. coast by the end of the week.
If that occurs, rain and stormy seas could reach a part of the East Coast later this week. Latest indications point toward the Southeast and southern mid-Atlantic most at risk for the wet weather.
"Right now we are banking on dry air over the interior Northeast to hold off rain to the south [of the Northeast], but that outlook could change as we get closer," said Sosnowski. The prospect of rain staying to the south is good news for those awaiting the pope's upcoming visit.
"Seas and the threat of rip currents will actually begin to build all along the East Coast of the U.S. as this week progresses and a stiff northeast wind develops between another high and the zone of storminess offshore," continued Pydynowski.
"Bathers and boaters enjoying the last few days of the official summer season will need to exercise caution and heed advisories as they are issued" Sosnowski added. "Many of the beaches will not have lifeguards on duty, since Labor Day has passed."
According to Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson, "The combination of increasing winds and building seas will likely have an impact on cruise ships traveling from the East Coast ports to Bermuda and the Bahamas into midweek."
Anyone living along the East Coast should continue to monitor the potential for any coastal system through the week.
Tropical Storm Ida
Ida, located about halfway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles, continues to churn northwestward over the open waters.
"Ida is located well away from any strong steering features and should drift northwest over the next couple days, even looping back on itself at some point a few days out," Duffey said.

Ida will remain over the open waters of the Atlantic and fight weakening wind shear over the next several days. Ida is not expected to be a threat to any land.
As the first official day of autumn occurs this week, the Atlantic hurricane season continues through the end of November.
"The area from the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic will remain an area to watch for both tropical and non-tropical storm development, as well as potential impact to populated areas into October," Sosnowski said.
Stay tuned to AccuWeather for the latest updates on this coastal system, as well as all other tropical features in all basins.

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