After a Possible Record Warm September, Warmth May Persist Into October

Linda Lam
Published: September 22,2015

Warm weather has dominated much of the U.S. so far in September, and many cities are on track to see a record warm September. If you have been enjoying the summer-like conditions, then you may be in luck as much of the contiguous U.S. may have to wait a little longer than usual for fall to set in.
There are indications the recent trend of above-average temperatures will persist into at least the beginning of October.
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Record Warm September Possible

Possible Warm September Records in the Northeast

Many cities are on track to have one of their warmest Septembers on record.
A few of the cities in the Northeast that could see a record warm September, as measured by the average of all the daily highs and lows during the month, are:

• New York: The standing record is 73.5 degrees set in 1961
• Boston: The standing record is 70.6 degrees set in 1983
• Burlington, Vermont: The standing record is 65.4 degrees set in 1961
• Caribou, Maine: The standing record is 61.7 degrees set in 1999

The Midwest and portions of the central U.S. may also see a record warm September:

• Chicago: The standing record is 71.2 degrees set in 1931
• Minneapolis-St. Paul: The standing record is 68.8 degrees set in 1897
• Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan: The standing record is 62.4 degrees in 2002
• Dallas: The standing record is 83.7 degrees set in 2005
• Denver: The standing record is 68.3 degrees set in 1948

Typically temperatures become cooler as September progresses, but above-average temperatures may very well last through the end of the month. This may allow many of these locations to set records.
Hot weather started the month in much of the Plains, Midwest and East; this was followed by a taste of fall. However, above-average temperatures returned this past week.
Numerous record highs and record warm lows were set from the Plains into the Midwest and Northeast the past several days. A few of these latest records include Fargo, North Dakota, which set a daily record high of 93 degrees on September 21; Marquette, Michigan, where a new record high of 81 degrees was reached on September 16; Amarillo, Texas, which tied its record high of 97 degrees on September 17; and Burlington, Vermont, where a new record high of 86 degrees was set on September 17.
Record high temperatures were also set earlier in the month, and New York City has seen the mercury rise to at least 90 degrees six days this September. On average, historically, the city only experiences one day at or above 90 in September.
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The above-average temperatures are courtesy of warm high pressure. The jet stream for much of September has featured a southward dip across the West, bringing cooler conditions to parts of that region, while the jet stream has been pushed northward over the central and eastern portions of the U.S. allowing the warm temperatures to reach farther north.

Warm October Ahead?

A break in the warmth is expected in the eastern half of the country early this week, but another round of warm conditions is expected late this week and this trend will likely continue into early October.
(MAPS: Will the Warmth Continue in the Days Ahead?)
The latest temperature outlook for October released by The Weather Channel Professional Division expects above-average temperatures for much of the country except for portions of the Southwest, as well as the southern and central Plains, especially later in the month. The East may even see temperatures well-above average temperatures in October.
The latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center also indicates that most of the U.S. is likely to see above-average temperatures, with portions of the Plains, Midwest and interior Northeast as the areas most likely to see warmer than average conditions through the end of September and into early October. Portions of the Pacific Northwest have the best chance of seeing cooler-than-average temperatures.
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