2015 and 2016 Will Likely Be Hottest Years On Record, UK Report Says

Eric Chaney
Published: September 14,2015

Areas across the globe have been hit with record or near-record temperatures in 2015, including a heatwave in Pakistan in June, during which nearly 200 people died from heatstroke.
(ASIF HASSAN/AFP/Getty Images)

The next two years are shaping up to be the hottest in recorded history, says a new report released by the United Kingdom’s national meteorological office. The report says that shifts in key global climate patterns are underway and affecting temperatures worldwide. Changes in the Pacific Ocean suggest that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a recurring pattern of warming and cooling of the waters, has entered its warming phase, the report says.

Palestinians walk behind a tanker spraying water during an event organised by the municipality to cool down its citizens during a heatwave on August 16, 2015 in the streets of the West Bank city of Ramallah.
(ABBAS MOMANI/AFP/Getty Images)

This year we’ve also seen one of the strongest El Nino events on record, says Weather Underground’s Director of Meteorology Dr. Jeff Masters, and that’s contributing to the rising temps.  “El Nino events also heat up the waters of the Eastern Pacific, and the ocean holds on to its heat for a long time,” says Masters. “We have record-warm global ocean temperatures, and these warm waters release extra heat to the atmosphere, making global temperature records easier to set.”
The record oceanic heat is due to a combination of the build-up of human-emitted heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, plus the natural influence of El Nino, says Masters, and makes 2015 “a lock to be the globe's warmest year on record, barring Earth's biggest volcanic eruption in 500 years occurring in the next few months.”
Heat records were shattered in Germany, France, and The Netherlands in June and July,  six cities in the state of Washington eclipsed their all-time highs on the same day, June 28,  and Kuwait came within a tenth of a degree of breaking the country's all time high of 128.5 degrees Fahrenheit on July 30.
There’s a good chance that temperatures will continue to rise well into 2016, says Masters, as the peak warming of the waters in the Eastern Pacific due to El Nino is expected to occur late in 2015 and early in 2016.
(MORE: The First Six Months of 2015 Have Been the Hottest on Record)
“Since there is a time lag of at least 4 months between the peak ocean temperature and peak global atmospheric temperatures, the first half of 2016 is likely to be record warm” he said, “which may be enough to make 2016 Earth's third consecutive warmest year on record.”
Further long-term global warming is expected over the coming  decades, there report says.
“It is now likely that decadal warming rates will reach late 20th century levels in the next couple of years,” Professor Adam Scaife, who led the Met Office analysis, told the UK Guardian. “We will look back on this period as an important turning point. There are so many big changes happening at once.”
MORE: Heat Wave Strikes India and Pakistan, Summer 2015